BIG 12 CONFERENCE OVERVIEW
Texas Tech stole the headlines in the Big 12 last season, winning the league and grabbing an automatic College Football Playoff berth. The Red Raiders did flame out in the postseason, losing 23-0 to Oregon in the quarterfinals. However, Joey McGuire’s program officially made its presence felt on the national stage. We also saw a tremendous season out of conference runner-up BYU, we witnessed Utah and Houston win double-digit games, and the depth of the league was impressive with nine teams finishing with winning records.
Heading into the 2026 season, the Red Raiders are once again expected to finish on top. However, Texas Tech will have to do it without Brendan Sorsby, who was supposed to take the passing game to another level before a gambling scandal derailed everything. The Red Raiders will now need to fight off some much-improved teams without an elite signal-caller.
Texas Tech is an odds-on favorite to win the Big 12 Conference Championship, but BYU and Utah aren’t too far back on the oddsboard. Kansas State, Houston, and Arizona are also shorter than 20-1 at DraftKings Sportsbook, and it’d be foolish to rule out 2024 conference champion Arizona State.
This simply should be a fascinating year in what has become one of the most interesting leagues in college football.
ARIZONA WILDCATS
Brent Brennan was put in a rough spot when he was hired by the Wildcats. After a wildly successful run at San Jose State, he was tasked with filling Jedd Fisch’s massive shoes in Tucson. Fisch completely turned this program around, then he understandably bolted for a good Big Ten job. Unfortunately, all of that led to a late start for Brennan, who didn’t have time to get things right. Arizona then stumbled to a 4-8 season in 2024, putting Brennan on the hot seat to start 2025.
Brennan responded to all of that with a fantastic 2025 season, with the Wildcats going 9-4 and being a couple very close losses away from achieving much bigger things. His coaching staff changes were a home run, he did great work in the transfer portal, and he seems to have a good pulse on recruiting. Brennan is now in good standing with the university, and expectations are somewhat high with star quarterback Noah Fifita returning with 13 other starters. What does 2026 have in store?
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
What type of year can be expected from Noah Fifita?
Last year, Fifita threw for 3,228 yards with 29 touchdowns and six interceptions, and he also happened to finish the 2025 season as PFF’s 17th-ranked passer. It was a major bounceback campaign after a down 2024 season, and he’s now considered one of the top returning signal-callers in football heading into 2026. Fifita has a solid group of weapons, a decent running game, and an established rapport with returning offensive coordinator Seth Doege. All of that should amount to a solid season, right? We’ll see. It’s hard to completely ignore that 2024 season, Arizona has to replace three starters along the offensive line, and Fifita does occasionally run into trouble with injuries. The hope will be that Fifita can replicate his 2025 success — and possibly even build on it. But that’s also what fans in Tucson were hoping for in 2024.
Can the Arizona passing defense survive key losses in the secondary?
Arizona finished tied for seventh in Game on Paper’s Adjusted EPA/Play Allowed (-0.14) last year, and a third-ranked EPA/Dropback Allowed (-0.24) played a big role in that. DC Danny Gonzales did an awesome job with his defensive backs last season, but he’ll need to do an even better job in 2026. Arizona lost four defensive backs to the NFL, with one of them being second-round pick and All-Big 12 corner Treydan Stukes and another being All-Big 12 safety Dalton Johnson. Brennan and Gonzales did hit the portal hard, bringing in several players with the potential to be instant-impact starters. However, last year’s Wildcats defense was special because of its ability to slow down some of the conference’s most explosive passing games. Any substantial dropoff in the secondary will hurt.
Is the schedule simply too tough for the Wildcats?
Arizona will play road games against BYU, Texas Tech, Kansas State, and West Virginia. The first two teams are expected to finish near the top of the Big 12, while K-State’s win total of 7.5 suggests it’s right on par with U of A and would likely be favored in Manhattan. Also, West Virginia has historically been a tough place to play when the team is good, and the Mountaineers are expected to be much better in 2026. The Wildcats also happen to host Utah, TCU, Cincinnati, and Arizona State. Finishing above .500 in conference play will be a challenge.
Arizona 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 7.5 Wins
The Wildcats will be getting points against the Cougars and Red Raiders, and they play six other games that I’d consider coin-flip contests. So, while this Arizona team has the potential to be just as good as last year’s squad, it feels unrealistic to expect eight wins. It’s also worth noting that the Wildcats had a +18 turnover margin last year, meaning some regression is likely coming there. Brennan is doing good work with this program, but a slight dip could be coming.
ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS
How much have the expectations changed in Tempe? Well, last year’s 8-5 season felt like a massive disappointment, which is outrageous given this team went 3-9 in 2023. That’s because Kenny Dillingham took ASU to the College Football Playoff in 2024, which was Year 2 with him leading the program.
Arizona State now heads into 2026 looking to build on last year, but doing so would mean thriving without Sam Leavitt under center. The 2024 Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year and second-team All-Big 12 performer is off to play for Lane Kiffin and LSU. Last year’s team had to deal with the loss of Cam Skattebo, and this year’s team won’t have Leavitt. That’s two core pieces of that special 2024 team.
In addition to dealing with a good bit of roster turnover, the Sun Devils also have to navigate a tough schedule. That means the odds are stacked against Dillingham, but he has been there before.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
How good can Cutter Boley be?
Boley had an up-and-down year as Kentucky’s starter last season, throwing for 2,160 yards with 15 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. However, he largely had an unreliable supporting cast, and he wasn’t working with anyone with Dillingham’s reputation. Boley might take some time to get comfortable in his new surroundings, but he’s a 6-foot-5 quarterback with a big arm and above-average athleticism. Dillingham once tried to get Boley to Oregon, so he clearly believes in his ability. While there might be question marks about the offense heading into the season, something tells me this group will exceed expectations. Boley has all the tools to be a high-level starter, the offensive line looks to be improved, and the Sun Devils have weapons at wideout — including intriguing Boston College transfer Reed Harris.
Is Marcus Arroyo the right guy to be calling the shots for a Dillingham-led team?
Dillingham mostly called plays for Arizona State in 2024, when the team averaged 6.1 yards per play. Last year, with play-calling responsibilities being passed to Arroyo, that number dropped to 5.6. In fairness, Leavitt playing only five games hurt, and the Sun Devils didn’t do a great job of accounting for the loss of Skattebo in the backfield. But Arizona State has one of the brightest offensive minds in college football on the sidelines. As long as Dillingham is there, fans will wonder why he’s not calling plays. That’s especially true fresh off a year in which the Sun Devils were just 49th in Adjusted EPA/Play (0.01).
Will Brian Ward get enough out of his defensive backs?
Arizona State added some big-time transfers when looking at the defensive linemen and linebackers who were brought in — with Colorado State’s Owen Long being one who could immediately turn heads on a bigger stage. However, the Sun Devils desperately need things to click in the secondary, where they were 49th in Dropback EPA/Play (-0.03) last year. LSU transfer Ashton Stamps was a good addition at corner, and ASU looks to have some impressive safeties. But how good a job Ward does of coaching this group up will be a major swing factor when it comes to the success of this season.
Arizona State 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 6.5 Wins
Arizona State likely isn’t heading back to the College Football Playoff in the near future, but this program isn’t going anywhere either. Dillingham continues to do a good job of reloading his rosters, and it just doesn’t feel right seeing the Sun Devils with a win total of 6.5. Arizona State undoubtedly has a difficult schedule, but the following games are more than winnable: vs. Morgan State, vs. Kansas, vs. Baylor, vs. Hawaii, vs. Kansas State, vs. Colorado, at UCF, vs. Oklahoma State, at Arizona. That’s enough for a play on the Over, and the Sun Devils might even be live to hit some alternate Overs.
BAYLOR BEARS
Things started so well for Dave Aranda. After going 2-7 in his first year in Waco, Aranda led the Bears to a 12-2 record and a Sugar Bowl victory in Year 2. However, Baylor has now had three losing seasons in the last four years, and it’s honestly shocking that Aranda still has his job.
Can Aranda reward the program’s decision-makers for having the faith to keep him around another season? That’s the big question. This defense is expected to be a little better than it was a year ago, and DJ Lagway is a high-profile addition at quarterback. So, there’s plenty to be excited about if you’re a Baylor fan — or backer. But the schedule is rather tough, and the team’s win total sits at 5.5. If Over bettors don’t cash their season-long plays, Aranda’s likely looking for a defensive coordinator job next year.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Can Jake Spavital unlock DJ Lagway?
Lagway was once viewed as the savior in Florida. He was the top-ranked quarterback in the 2024 recruiting class, and he put some great stuff on film when he first got opportunities in Gainesville. Unfortunately, things turned quickly for the dual-threat quarterback. Last year, he threw 14 picks and took 19 sacks, making far too many mistakes at the most important position on the field. Some piled-up injuries definitely played a role in that, but it was clear a change in scenery was needed. Well, Lagway will now be playing for an elite play-caller in Spavital, and he’s taking control of an offense that put up 31.1 points per game last year. If the group up front can do a good job of keeping Lagway upright, we could see a major turnaround. Sawyer Robertson put up massive numbers in this offense, and Lagway is arguably more talented. If Lagway has his deep-ball touch this season, we should see plenty of big plays in a Spavital offense that is known for wideouts streaking down the field with defenders nowhere in sight.
How will the Bears stack up in the trenches?
Keeping Lagway upright was mentioned in the previous burning question and it’ll be a revamped offensive line tasked with doing so. Aranda and Co. have Kaden Sieracki, a starter last year, back at right tackle, but four fresh faces were brought in at the other spots. Three of those four were starters. Baylor should be bigger and deeper along the line, so the potential is there for this group to be much improved from a year ago. The Bears also have a loaded defensive line, so there’s a chance this team is way more physical than it was in 2025. And overall, the squad should have the toughness required to compete regularly in the Big 12.
Is the Baylor defense going to be a mess again?
Aranda is no longer calling the defense. While he’s viewed as a great defensive mind, he’s wisely stepping aside and allowing a new voice to step in. Joe Klanderman is the guy hoping to solve Baylor’s recent defensive issues. Klanderman spent the last six years with Kansas State, and he has been open about wanting his team to be active in the opposing backfield. We should see a good amount of blitzing. That will leave the secondary a little more exposed than usual, but the defensive backs on this team are good enough to manage that. Realistically, this defense has improved at all three levels, so last year’s 32.6 opponent points per game should come down considerably.
Baylor 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 5.5 Wins
Baylor has a really tough schedule. A neutral-site game against Auburn on September 5 could ultimately decide whether this team hits the six-win mark, but the Over still feels like a better play than the Under. The Bears have the talent required to take a huge step forward on defense, and it’s hard not to be excited about Lagway potentially finding himself in a more quarterback-friendly offense.
BYU COUGARS
Kalani Sitake has done absurd things as the head coach of his alma mater. BYU has won double-digit games in four of the last six seasons, and last year’s Cougars squad had a real case for making the College Football Playoff field. Sitake has been so successful that Penn State was dying for him to take over the Nittany Lions program. In the end, BYU’s boosters dipped into their bottomless pit of money to bring him back.
Sitake will now look to take a step forward this season, meaning he’ll be looking to get the Cougars into the CFP for the first time ever. Doing so will be difficult, as the Big 12 is loaded with talented teams. However, BYU returns nearly every impactful player from last year’s 12-win team.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
How much better will Bear Bachmeier be as a passer?
Bachmeier wasn’t supposed to be a freshman starter for BYU, but he ran with the opportunity. He threw for 3,033 yards with 15 touchdowns and only seven picks, and he also ran for 527 yards and 11 touchdowns. However, Bachmeier was far more comfortable running than he was passing, and improving his accuracy to become a more cerebral pocket passer is the next stage in his development. Bachmeier had an overall PFF grade of 78.9 last year, so he graded out as a top-50 quarterback. It was, however, his rushing grade (77.0) that raised his overall profile. If the passing grade can surpass the rushing grade in 2026, BYU has something special at the quarterback spot.
Can the wide receiver group overcome the loss of Parker Kingston?
Kingston had 97 receptions for 928 yards and five touchdowns last year, so BYU was hoping to have the shifty slot man back for another season. But that possibility was thrown out the window when the skilled wideout was expelled from school for his off-field conduct. BYU will now be relying heavily on an unproven group of pass catchers. That said, Bachmeier will not only be hoping to progress as a passer, he’ll be doing so without receivers he’s comfortable working with. It’ll be interesting to see who emerges as the top dog, but don’t sleep on Oregon transfer Kyle Kasper. He’s a 6-foot-6 contested-catch weapon who also moves pretty well for a player his size.
Will new DC Kelly Poppinga hit the ground running?
BYU is coming off back-to-back seasons in which the defense has allowed 19.6 or fewer points per game. Last year, the Cougars actually gave up only 19.1, so the vibes should be nothing but positive with eight players who started games in 2025 back — including talented Cal transfer Cade Uluave. But BYU will have a new coach leading the defense, as Jay Hill went to join Kyle Whittingham at Michigan. Things should be fine considering the playmakers the Cougars have scattered throughout the defense, but you never quite know.
BYU 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 8.5 Wins
You can nitpick some things when looking at this year’s BYU team, but it’s pretty clear this squad has the goods. Winning nine games will be tough with the Cougars’ difficult schedule, but they do get Notre Dame at LaVell Edwards Stadium. That helps in one of their biggest challenges of the season, and there’s a real chance that’ll be the only game of the season in which they’ll be getting points. If that’s not the case, perhaps they’ll be ‘dogs at Utah on November 7. Either way, there should be nine wins here.
CINCINNATI BEARCATS
Cincinnati finished last season with a 7-6 record, which was somewhat disappointing considering the amount of returning starters (15 who started games the previous year) they had heading into the year. One of those starters was Brendan Sorsby, who threw for 2,800 yards, 27 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He also rushed for another 580 yards and nine touchdowns. Replacing Sorsby and several other offensive weapons will be a challenge, plus the defense really struggled to get stops toward the end of the season.
As we look to 2026, Scott Satterfield is going to need to do a great coaching job to overcome a brutal schedule. However, Satterfield has won seven or fewer games in six consecutive years, so his shine is starting to wear off — if it hasn’t already. This will be a big season for the Bearcats.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
What does this offense look like without Sorsby and Cyrus Allen?
Last year, the Bearcats were No. 5 in the country in Game on Paper’s Adjusted EPA/Play (0.14). This was an explosive offense with Sorsby at the helm. This year, Sorsby is long gone — and we genuinely have no idea what he’ll be doing with his time — while Allen, the team’s top receiver, is off to the Chiefs. Allen had 13 touchdown catches last year, so this team lost a star quarterback and a big-play pass-catching weapon. Joe Royer also happened to be a good tight end for Satterfield’s group, but he’s another player off to the NFL. Replacing Sorsby will be Georgia Southern transfer JC French, who is an accurate passer that likes to deal opponents death by a million paper cuts. He’s not a threat to consistently complete deep balls. Cincinnati also has an underwhelming group in the backfield, and the receivers are unproven. There’s a chance this unit takes a massive step back.
Can the defense chop a few points off last year’s 25.6 points per game allowed?
Cincinnati finished 74th in the nation in scoring defense last year. Considering the Bearcats offense is likely in for some serious regression, being a better defensive team is imperative. Cincinnati appears to have a better situation in the secondary, where they have a few big-time MAC contributors transferring in — they raided Northern Illinois for defensive backs Jacob Finley and Jasper Beeler, and they also got MLB Filip Maciorowski from the Huskies. The Bearcats also have some good size along the D-Line, and the linebacking corps looks solid. On top of that, new defensive coordinator Nate Woody largely did a good job in that role at Army. There’s some excitement surrounding his aggressive 3-4 scheme. This should be a better defense than we saw last year.
Will this team win three Big 12 games?
Cincinnati starts the season with winnable games against Boston College, Western Carolina, and Miami (Ohio). After that, it gets harder to find the wins. The Bearcats will host Kansas State and Colorado, and they go on the road to face West Virginia and Iowa State. Going 3-1 in those four games will likely be necessary in order for Cincinnati to find a way to six victories. It’d be surprising if the Bearcats won road games against Arizona, Houston, and BYU, and home-field advantage likely won’t be enough for Cincinnati to take down Texas Tech or Utah.
Cincinnati 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 5.5 Wins
Hiring Woody and bringing in some instant-impact transfers should result in meaningful change for the defense, but it’s hard to imagine what this offense will look like without Sorsby. Well, if Cincinnati doesn’t have an offense capable of generating explosives, it’s likely this will turn into a long year — and a long year for the Bearcats could mean a short year for Satterfield, who should really be on the hot seat. Honestly, if Cincinnati loses to Boston College on September 5, this season could go off the rails.
COLORADO BUFFALOES
After going 4-8 in Deion Sanders’ first year in Boulder, Colorado won nine games in Year 2. That was a year in which Shedeur Sanders put up stupid numbers as a passer, and Travis Hunter won the Heisman for his contributions as both a wide receiver and a cornerback. Unfortunately for Coach Prime, the success of those players meant they had to go to the NFL. That made for a disaster of a season in 2025, as the Buffs lacked an identity, went 3-9 overall, and finished 1-8 in Big 12 play.
Things should be different heading into 2026. Sanders is doing much better with regards to some of the health concerns that have made life difficult for him both on and off the field. He has also made some big coaching staff changes, and he and his staff went hard in bringing in reliable contributors via the transfer portal. Now, in Year 4, a bowl game appearance should be on the table.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
How will OC Brennan Marion’s “Go-Go” system look in the Big 12?
Marion’s fast-paced, power rushing offense was highly successful at UNLV and Sacramento State, but it’ll be interesting to see whether it translates to the big leagues. Marion’s offenses feature multiple backs, and he relies on fresh legs to rip off big runs up the middle. The success of the rushing attack also allows for plenty of deep balls, as it is a variation of a spread offense. As long as the Buffaloes get some strong play up front, there’s really no reason this shouldn’t work. And Colorado has two potential pros — Leon Bell and Bo Hughley — at tackle, and Demetrius Hunter is a proven starter at center. That said, the O-Line should be pretty solid.
Will Julian Lewis show out at the quarterback position?
Lewis was a five-star recruit and the third-ranked quarterback in the class of 2025, and he’s viewed as the future of Colorado football. Last year, over parts of three games, Lewis threw for 589 yards with four touchdowns and no picks. He wasn’t great in that stretch, but he wasn’t miserable either. This year, Lewis is expected to begin his rise to stardom. A traditional pro-style quarterback, Lewis isn’t going to be looking to do as much improvisation as we saw out of Shedeur in Boulder. But he has the arm talent required to make the types of downfield throws Marion needs. If he can’t, Utah transfer Isaac Wilson — brother of Zach Wilson — could get a shot.
Can former Virginia Tech DC Chris Marve get the defense on track?
Colorado looked to be moving in the right direction on defense, as the team allowed 23.1 points per game in 2024 after having allowed 34.8 points per game in 2023. However, things got ugly again last season, with the Buffaloes giving up 30.5 points per game and finishing 56th in the nation in Adjusted EPA/Play Allowed (-0.03). Being a top-25 defense should be the goal for Colorado in 2026, and it isn’t an unrealistic one considering the team was 13th in Adjusted EPA/Play allowed (-0.13) in 2024. Marve also happens to have a lot of talent to work with. The Buffs really beefed up through the transfer portal, adding several all-conference Group of Five performers at all three levels of the defense. Sanders was also able to bring in some corners from big-time programs. That said, this will truly fall on Marve, as the group certainly isn’t lacking playmakers.
Colorado 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 4.5 Wins
We’re going to learn a lot about Colorado this year. Can this program be successful without Sanders’ kids and a two-way star like Hunter? Last year’s team didn’t have enough talent to compete in the Big 12, but this year’s group has the size, balance, and skill to hang around. That said, if this coaching staff does its job, five wins should be attainable. Colorado should easily pick up one against Weber State, and there’s no reason the team can’t be competitive in home games against Kansas State, Houston, and UCF. Road games against Northwestern, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Cincinnati also seem like reasonable spots to project wins. That’s seven games in which the Buffaloes will need to pick up four wins. I’d say it’s more likely than not they’ll get them.
HOUSTON COUGARS
Willie Fritz has won at a high level everywhere, so it should come as no surprise that he has some serious momentum at Houston. This program has been viewed as a sleeping giant for years, and Fritz was the perfect hire to get the Cougars over the hump. Fritz only needed two years to turn Houston into a 10-win team, as last year’s group won nine games and then added a 10th with a victory over LSU in the Texas Bowl. The next step for the Cougars is making the College Football Playoff.
Houston’s win total is either 7.5 or 8.5 depending on where you look, but this team has a ton of talent — with 19 projected starters who started in 2025 — and a reasonable schedule. There isn’t much preventing the Cougars from turning in a special season, and we’ll learn a lot about them when they travel to Lubbock for a meeting with Texas Tech on September 18.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Can Fritz afford to keep QB Keisean Henderson on the bench all season?
Conner Weigman was solid for Houston last season, throwing for 2,705 yards with 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also rushed for 700 yards and 11 scores. Weigman was, however, a little inefficient as a passer, finishing with a PFF grade of 63.5 as a thrower. He also struggled mightily in some of Houston’s biggest games. That makes things interesting with Henderson lurking. Henderson was a five-star recruit who could have gone anywhere in the country, but he chose to play for the Cougars. The 18-year-old has top-tier mobility and a smooth delivery. It’s going to be tempting for Fritz to get him on the field at some point, as elite play under center could turn Houston into a legitimate national title contender.
Is Houston getting the Tulane version of Makhi Hughes?
In 2024, Hughes rushed for 1,401 yards with 15 touchdowns for the Green Wave. He also caught 19 passes for 176 yards and two touchdowns. Hughes was one of the top running backs in football as both a freshman and a sophomore, and big things were expected from him when he transferred to Oregon for the 2025 season. However, Hughes was a non-factor in Eugene, so he decided to redshirt after four games. Now, Hughes reunites with Fritz in Houston, where he’ll be the top back in a loaded backfield. Hughes has cooked in this system in the past, and he’ll be running behind a much-improved offensive line. He should return to stardom and serve as the head of the snake for a very good football team.
Does this defense have the potential to be a top-15 unit in the country?
Last season, Houston was tied for 41st in the nation in Game on Paper’s Adjusted EPA/Play Allowed (-0.05). This year, nine players who started games in 2025 are here on defense, and some intriguing transfers — like Ashton Porter, De’Marion Thomas, and Jordan Allen — will make this a more dynamic group. With a slight spike in pass-rushing production, along with steadier play in the secondary, this can be a very good defense. Houston gave up only 22.8 points per game a season ago, and the goal will be shaving off a field goal or so. Defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong has the talent, size, and depth he needs to accomplish that.
Houston 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 7.5 Wins
Not only is Houston worthy of a juiced Over at 7.5 wins, but this is a team worth attacking with some alternates. There’s a real chance the Cougars earn double-digit wins this year, with road games at Texas Tech and Utah being the only two spots on the schedule where Houston should be getting points. Fritz has done a good job of building this program up, going 4-8 in Year 1 and rapidly improving to 10-3 in Year 2. Well, the team he’s putting on the field in Year 3 is arguably the most talented group he has ever coached, which says a lot considering the kind of success he had at Tulane. Making the College Football Playoff is on the table in 2026.
IOWA STATE CYCLONES
Matt Campbell’s run with Iowa State will not be forgotten, and it’ll be hard for the Cyclones to retool with the 46-year-old now at Penn State. However, Iowa State did pick up a proven winner in Jimmy Rogers, who won a Division I Championship with South Dakota State in 2023 and then did a solid job in his lone season with Washington State last year.
Rogers brought over defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbit, who had the Cougars performing like an elite defense last season. He also hit the transfer portal extremely hard, bringing in a mix of high-major players in need of more opportunity and successful lower-level players looking for a bigger stage.
It’d be foolish to rule out Rogers turning Iowa State into a winner, as good coaches can win in Ames. However, it might take more than a season for this team to move on.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Will the Cyclones have one of the best defenses in the Big 12?
If there’s one place Iowa State could thrive in 2026, it’s the defensive side of the ball. Last year, Bobbit ran a top-50 defense in Adjusted EPA/Play Allowed (-0.05), and only 25 teams allowed fewer points per game than Washington State’s 20.2. He can really coach up a defense, and this team is going to be plenty talented. While most of Campbell’s players are gone, the Cyclones were able to bring in a bunch of key pieces from Washington State — along with some other big-time contributors from smaller programs. This defense should be in a very good place, even after losing transfer safety Braden Awls for the season after tearing his ACL in spring practice.
Are the big boys along the revamped offensive line ready for a jump in competition?
The Cyclones added a ton of players with starting experience along the O-Line, with Braden Smith (Tarleton State), Caden Mass (Sioux Falls), Colin Amick (Montana), and Jake Taylor (Oklahoma) all having been starters before. However, those first three played against much worse competition, so it’ll be interesting to see how they handle the size in the Big 12. Also, Taylor missed all of last year after starting four games at Oklahoma, so it’s not like we’ve seen him recently. All in all, Iowa State did a good job of filling some holes — plus the group has plenty of depth — but we still know very little about how this will look. If it doesn’t work out well, the Cyclones will be in for a very long season.
What is there to be excited about on offense?
Not only is the offensive line a bit of a question mark, the entire offense feels like one. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor is an exciting player, as he was a fun dual-threat weapon for Arkansas State last year. However, he does turn the ball over a little too often, and there isn’t much that suggests he’ll be able to carve up Big 12 defenses. The Cyclones also lack proven pass-catching options, and they have a pretty shaky group of running backs behind the retooled offensive line. Considering the lack of talent and experience, there’s a real world in which this is the worst offense in the Big 12.
Iowa State 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 4.5 Wins
Iowa State should be able to win games against Southeast Missouri and Bowling Green, but winning on the road against Iowa will be tough in Year 1 with this coaching staff. It’s also hard to pick out three conference victories considering the way this offense looks on paper. That said, even if you’re optimistic about Rogers’ fit with Iowa State, this does feel like it’s going to be a trying season. With so many Big 12 teams looking to make big leaps this season, this could be the conference punching bag. So, the Cyclones will likely struggle to reach the five-win mark, but perhaps they’ll ramp things up in a big way in 2027.
KANSAS JAYHAWKS
After three years with Kansas, Lance Leipold looked to be on his way to becoming a Lawrence legend. The Jayhawks went 2-10 in Leipold’s first year, 6-7 in his second, and then exploded for a 9-4 season in 2023. Leipold’s work helped secure some serious financial investments from the university. However, after back-to-back 5-7 seasons in 2024 and 2025, Leipold suddenly finds himself with an uncomfortably warm seat.
The good news for Kansas is that Leipold was able to bring offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, a former Broyles Award nominee, back after an up-and-down stint with Penn State. That will at least mean the Jayhawks will be running the most successful offense they have run in decades. The question is whether Kansas has the talent required to achieve bowl eligibility.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Does reuniting with OC Andy Kotelnicki make up for losing Jalon Daniels?
In 2022, Kansas averaged 35.6 points per game. Then, in 2023, the Jayhawks averaged 34.8 points per game. Kansas was one of the most potent offensive teams in the nation, which is why James Franklin brought Kotelnicki to Happy Valley. That move ultimately didn’t work out for anyone, so Kotelnicki is back to working with Leipold. You can expect this offense to be extremely efficient when the necessary pieces are in place, but they aren’t right now. The quarterback situation looks pretty ugly with Daniels, one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in college football last year, gone. Kansas also appears to be lacking game-changing talent in the wide receiver room, so Kotelnicki might not produce an elite offensive product right away.
Will the offensive line be good enough to support a run-heavy approach?
Kotelnicki’s pro-style system utilizes a lot of pre-snap motion that are designed to create mismatches, but none of it works without an efficient, physical running game. That means offensive line play will be massive heading into 2026, and that’s especially true with a questionable quarterback situation. The Jayhawks are set at left tackle, where Calvin Clements started 12 games in 2025 and looks the part of a future pro. Kansas also has left guard Amir Herring back from last year, and the team brought in some impressive bodies to fill out the rest of the line. There’s some real potential for this to turn into one of the better groups in the Big 12, which could prevent the offense from completely spiraling.
Is there hope on defense after a disastrous 2025 season?
While bringing Kotelnicki back is nice, Leipold needs to figure out how to stabilize his defense. New defensive coordinator DK McDonald is being tasked with patching up a unit that gave up 26.8 points per game last year. The Jayhawks were also unable to crack the top 100 in Game on Paper’s Adjusted EPA/Play Allowed (0.05) last season. Things should be a little better on this side of the ball in 2026, as Leipold addressed some needs in the transfer portal. However, this team either needs to be much stronger when it comes to getting after the quarterback or much steadier in the secondary. If that’s not the case, the best quarterbacks in the Big 12 will torch Kansas.
Kansas 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 5.5 Wins
Without Daniels’ playmaking to mask some of their deficiencies, this could be a tough year for Kansas. The Jayhawks should handle their business against lower-tier schools like Long Island and Middle Tennessee, but it’s hard to believe in them against Missouri or in the entire Big 12. Kansas might be able to make something out of home games against Baylor and UCF, but this isn’t a team that can be trusted in 50-50 games with these quarterback options and a mediocre defense. And if things do go extremely poorly, it’ll be interesting to see what happens with Leipold.
KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
After going 6-6 in 2025, Chris Klieman decided to step down from his position as head coach of Kansas State. He cited family and personal health as the reasons he ultimately chose to retire. Klieman had won at least nine games in three consecutive seasons prior to last year’s disappointing campaign, doing a good job as the replacement for the legendary Bill Snyder. But the Wildcats are hoping for even bigger things out of Collin Klein, who played for K-State from 2008 to 2012 and then served as the team’s offensive coordinator in 2022 and 2023.
Klein is viewed as a brilliant offensive mind. He’s only 36 years old, and this is his destination job. All of that is great for the program. However, this will be his first time calling the shots for an entire team, so there’s no guarantee this will be a seamless transition. But the Wildcats do have a good amount of talent on both sides of the ball, and Avery Johnson, an electric dual-threat quarterback, is back under center. Many have this team pegged as a sleeper.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
How much better can the Wildcats be against the run?
While this team is now being coached by an offense-forward mind, this defense has been hyped up throughout the offseason. People are understandably high on the Kansas State secondary, which has a good combination of talent and experience. However, the Wildcats allowed 164.0 rushing yards per game last season, and having a strong group of defensive backs is relatively meaningless when you can’t stop the run. Kansas State appears to have addressed this by adding Oklahoma State transfer Wendell Gregory, Cincinnati transfer Kamari Burns, and Kentucky transfer Austin Ramsey — along with a few productive linebackers — but it’s difficult to bring in an entirely new crop of players. Perhaps this group will perform more like a top-40 rushing defense, but expecting a bigger turnaround than that probably isn’t fair.
Can Avery Johnson take his game to another level?
Johnson threw for 2,712 yards with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 2024, and he also rushed for 605 yards with seven touchdowns. That had many feeling very excited about what the 2025 season would look like, but Johnson didn’t get any better. He threw for 2,385 yards with 18 touchdowns and six picks, and he rushed for 477 yards and eight scores. Is this simply who Johnson is at this point? Realistically, there should be another gear he can reach. He’s one of the most impressive athletes in the nation at his position, and the return of Klein should mean he’s playing in the perfect offense. If Kansas State is going to win eight or nine games this year, Johnson will need to be a little sharper as a passer while maintaining his juice as a runner.
Who’s catching the passes for this team?
Jayce Brown was an absolute burner for this offense last year, catching 41 balls for 712 yards and five touchdowns. His big-play ability caught the attention of Lane Kiffin, so he’ll now be catching passes in Baton Rouge. That leaves a massive hole in this wide receiver group. Jaron Tibbs and Josh Manning have both been productive in the past, but will either of them be able to consistently create space when Klein isn’t scheming them open? Perhaps Izaiah Williams, who followed Klein from Texas A&M, will break out and be the piece this offense is missing.
Kansas State 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 7.5 Wins
It isn’t hard to see why people like the Wildcats to be sneaky-good in the Big 12 this year, but it still feels like a seven-win season is more likely than an eight-win season. Kansas State does have the benefit of playing some tougher games at home, but that doesn’t guarantee wins. The Wildcats can easily get tripped up against Houston, Kansas, and Arizona, even with the games being played in Manhattan. The Wildcats have a lot of questions to answer when it comes to stopping the run, and I’m not sold on Klein instantly fixing the offense. Johnson has to earn back the trust he lost, and the receiver group looks mediocre.
OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS
Oklahoma State is one of the most fascinating teams in the country. There will likely be a statue of Mike Gundy in Stillwater at some point, but it was clear the game passed him by. He had zero interest in adjusting to the new age of college football, which is why the Cowboys went a combined 4-11 under his watch in 2024 and 2025. That forced Oklahoma State’s hand in moving on, and the team ultimately decided on Eric Morris as the new leader of the program.
North Texas went 12-2 last season — with Morris on the sidelines for 11 of the wins — and had the most explosive offense in college football. He’s another Air Raid coach who brings a ton of excitement to this storied team, and he also brought a bunch of his former players in for Year 1.
Playing in the Big 12 means a quick turnaround won’t be easy for Morris, who went 5-7 in his first year with North Texas. However, he has some legitimate stars playing for his offense, including Drew Mestemaker. So, even if this season isn’t a smashing success, it will be fun to watch.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Is Mestemaker capable of consistently lighting up Power Four competition?
Mestemaker was the best Group of Five quarterback in the nation last year, and he also posted the best numbers of all FBS quarterbacks. The 20-year-old has NFL scouts drooling over his big arm, his solid mobility, and his ability to read defenses. The sky truly feels like the limit for him, but how much of what he did last season will translate to the Big 12? Mestemaker had more interceptions than touchdowns in two of the Mean Green’s biggest games (vs. South Florida and at Tulane). Those losses weren’t only on him, but he will need to prove that he can handle much tougher competition in 2026. We’ll learn a lot on September 12, as Oklahoma State will face Oregon.
Did Morris do well enough in building out this offensive line?
Oklahoma State lost seven players from last year’s group of offensive line options, so Morris went out and hit the portal. One of the players he brought over was Johnny Dickson, who was a second-team All-AAC guard last year. He also grabbed three Power Four starters, along with a starting guard from Coastal Carolina. This unit won’t be lacking in experience, but will it be good enough? Morris is pretty excited about the way the line is coming together, and he did add some solid depth pieces. This is one of the most important position groups in the country this year, as Morris needs the line to hold up in order for his offense to explode in the Big 12.
Does this defense have enough legitimate dudes?
North Texas’ 0.06 Adjusted EPA/Play Allowed mark was pretty miserable last year, but the Mean Green were good enough defensively to allow Mestemaker to win games with his arm. That will be the goal again in 2026. Skyler Cassity was praised for the job he did in turning North Texas into a high-turnover defense last year, and he’ll be hoping an aggressive style pays off again in the Big 12. The issue is that this team is really lacking talent. The Cowboys only have four players who started in 2025 in their projected starting lineup. Outside of that, they’re banking on youth and unproven transfers. This could be one of the worst defenses in the Big 12, which is why it’s hard to fully buy into Oklahoma State as a sleeper in the conference.
Oklahoma State 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 5.5 Wins
The way this defense looks is definitely a bit concerning, but Cassity has done more with less. Realistically, as long as this offense lives up to expectations, wins will come with a manageable schedule. Oklahoma State should beat Tulsa and Murray State easily, and home games against UCF, Colorado, and Kansas should be winnable. If the Cowboys can just take care of those five, hitting the Over means the Pokes need one road win in games against West Virginia, Iowa State, and Kansas State. That feels like it’s going to happen.
TCU HORNED FROGS
Sonny Dykes took TCU to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game in 2022, but he has achieved modest results since. In 2023, the hangover from a deep run resulted in a 5-7 season. Dykes did, however, rebound to post back-to-back 9-4 seasons. This year, the expectations are much higher. TCU is looking to contend for the Big 12 title, as 13 players who started in 2025 are projected to start for a Horned Frogs team that has also recruited and developed at a high level. Dykes also did well in bringing in Harvard transfer Jaden Craig to replace Josh Hoover, who transferred to Indiana.
In reading the tea leaves with people who cover this team — or generally analyze college football — you’d think this team is live to rack up double-digit wins. However, the Horned Frogs have some tricky schedule spots this year, and some of the holes on defense could hold the team back quite a bit.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
What will TCU look like with Gordon Sammis as offensive coordinator?
Sammis is coming off a very successful stint as UConn’s OC. The Huskies were actually sixth in the nation in EPA/Play (0.13) last year, according to Game on Paper. However, there’s a good chance this looks nothing like a standard Dykes team. We usually see the Air Raid from TCU, but Sammis runs a pro-style offense. The timing could be perfect though. Hoover is no longer under center for the Horned Frogs, so hitting the field and slinging the ball around for an hour is no longer an option. Instead, TCU will look to get more out of a massive offensive line and a good group of running backs. That doesn’t mean the Horned Frogs won’t be throwing, but this should be a more physical football team.
How much will the team miss Hoover?
Hoover threw some bad interceptions, but he was a spectacular quarterback for Dykes. In 2024, he threw for 3,949 yards with 27 touchdowns and 11 picks. He then threw for 3,472 yards with 29 touchdowns and 13 picks last year. TCU will have a different look without Hoover’s massive arm, but Craig should be productive in the Big 12. The Harvard transfer doesn’t have the same aggressiveness as Hoover, but he’s less mistake-prone and offers more mobility. His job will be to distribute the ball to TCU’s playmakers, and this team has plenty of them — including talented wideout Jordan Dwyer.
Is there a world in which TCU is a top-25 defense?
With the Horned Frogs moving away from a high-octane spread offense, being better defensively is a must. Last year, TCU was just outside the nation’s top 50 in EPA/Play and Adjusted EPA/Play at Game on Paper. This year’s team needs to be closer to the top 25. The defensive line should be a strength, and the secondary is absolutely loaded. The biggest question mark is the linebacking corps, which mostly features first-time starters. If defensive coordinator Andy Avalos doesn’t get consistent play from his linebackers, the Horned Frogs could be in for a disappointing season.
TCU 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 7.5 Wins
TCU’s season-opening game against North Carolina will be huge. That matchup in Dublin will tell us a lot about the new-look Horned Frogs, but a loss there would mean curtains for the Over. TCU plays several tough road games, as the team will go on the road to battle UCF, Baylor, Arizona, and Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs also host BYU and Utah, which are two of the best teams in the Big 12. There might be a lot of buzz surrounding this TCU squad, but the schedule is tough, the overhaul of the offense feels a bit ambitious, and having uncertainty at linebacker could be a bit problematic. The Under seems like the play here.
TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
Texas Tech was a wagon last season. While the Red Raiders got shut out when they faced Oregon in the College Football Playoff, they ran through the Big 12 regular season — with their only loss coming in a road game at Arizona State, when starting quarterback Behren Morton was hurt — and finished seventh in the country in Net Adjusted EPA/Play (+0.17) at Game on Paper.
Head coach Joey McGuire is fishing with dynamite when it comes to navigating the transfer portal. Texas Tech has as deep a funding pool as any program in the country, so this team is constantly able to load up on big-time performers. This offseason was no different, so the Red Raiders will be loaded again.
Texas Tech enters this season with 15 players who started in 2025, so talent and experience won’t be issues. However, that number should have been 16, as the Red Raiders were supposed to have Brendan Sorsby. The star quarterback was one of the biggest prizes in the transfer portal, but he’s ineligible to play college football this year after being caught betting on sports earlier in his career.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Should Will Hammond be the starter for a top-tier team?
Hammond had some solid games last season. He actually went on the road and threw for 169 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in a beatdown of Utah, and he added 61 yards on the ground in that one. However, Texas Tech was not planning to start him this season, and being handed the keys to a championship-caliber team is a massive responsibility. Are we sure he can handle that right now? Hammond was a four-star recruit out of high school, he’s athletic, and he’s pretty accurate. But he’s also inexperienced, he’s coming off a torn ACL, and this coaching staff probably wanted him on the bench another year or two. That leaves some uncertainty at the most important position on the field.
Will there be a significant dropoff in offensive line play?
Texas Tech lost two starters from last year’s line, including second-team All-Big 12 guard Davion Carter. The Red Raiders weren’t able to bring in any clear starters to replace them either. That means this team will be relying on part-time starters who transferred in, or on younger players. That isn’t exactly a deathblow, but the line is going to need to be excellent in order for Hammond to play at a high level. The group up front also needs to be ready to open up big holes for star running back Cameron Dickey. If Texas Tech’s blocking isn’t as good as it was last year, that’s one of the few things that can derail the season.
Do the Red Raiders have another top-five defensive season in them?
Last year, Texas Tech was first in the nation in Game on Paper’s Adjusted EPA/Play Allowed (-0.25), fifth in Yards Per Play Allowed (5.6), and first in Havoc Rate (19.3%). The Red Raiders also allowed fewer points per game (11.8) than all but two teams in the country. Texas Tech looked impenetrable for most of last season, and many of the top players from that unit are gone — including No. 2 overall pick David Bailey. However, McGuire loves some of the young pieces that will have bigger roles in 2026, Austin Romaine and Brice Pollock are both back, and the team added a legitimate star in Miami (Ohio) transfer Adam Trick. Shiel Wood has also proven to be a fantastic defensive play-caller. The Red Raiders should be pretty special on this side of the ball again.
Texas Tech 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 10.5 Wins
Suggesting Texas Tech will win 11 games at nearly -200 odds is a tough sell, but it is pretty likely the team reaches that number. Even without an elite signal-caller, this team is absolutely loaded. The schedule is also extremely weak. The toughest road game the Red Raiders will play is at Baylor, and it’s just hard to imagine them losing to Houston, Arizona State, and TCU at home. Don’t be surprised if Tech cruises to the College Football Playoff. That’s where disappointing quarterback play and the slightest dip on defense could burn them.
UCF KNIGHTS
The first time Scott Frost took the UCF job, he needed only two years to turn an 0-12 team into a 13-0 team. This time around, no one is expecting that type of turnaround. However, Frost did win five games in 2025, improving on the team’s 4-8 season under Gus Malzahn in 2024. Things also happen to be moving in the right direction in recruiting and transfer portal hunting.
There’s a solid buzz in Orlando right now, and Frost is now looking to get the Knights back to a bowl game. After having only 10 returning starters last season, UCF has 13 heading into this season. Frost also happened to upgrade some key spots. If the Knights can prevail in some 50-50 road games, this could turn into a great season.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
How much better can the offensive line be?
The Knights lost four of last year’s five starters, but they had one of the worst lines in the Big 12. A fresher look up front should be a good thing for this team, especially with Preston Cushman being the lone returnee. He was at Ole Miss two years ago, and having an SEC talent is always a nice thing. The Knights added two other full-time starters and another who played a good chunk of games. Connor Meadows is also back after starting a few games for the Knights at center late last season. This won’t be one of the better lines in the Big 12, but this coaching staff is expecting the group to be better than it was last year.
Is this offense primed for a significant leap?
If the offensive line holds up its end of the bargain, UCF’s offense should look a little more like the 2017 UCF offense. The quarterback situation was a mess last year, but it should be a strength in 2026. Alonza Barnett III threw for 2,806 yards with 23 touchdowns and eight picks for a good JMU team last year, and he also rushed for 589 yards and 15 scores. He’s a high-level dual-threat signal-caller, and he’s also a leader and a proven winner. The Knights also happen to have a ton of talent at the skill positions, with Duane Thomas and Dylan Wade as two of their more dangerous pass-catching weapons. Josh Derry is also an intriguing wideout, as he lit up the FCS with Monmouth last season.
How does DC Alex Grinch follow up a solid Year 1 showing in Orlando?
UCF only allowed 23.6 points per game last season, lowering the number from the 26.9 the team gave up in 2024. Grinch has had an up-and-down career as a defensive coordinator, but he did a very good job with last year’s team. The passing defense was especially impressive, with the Knights allowing only 185.0 yards per game through the air. UCF actually brings back four starters from that secondary, so the passing defense should be a strength again. The Knights also happened to bring back some studs in defensive tackle RJ Jackson and linebacker Lewis Carter. On top of that, the staff signed some instant-impact starters — some from the Group of Five and others from the Power Four. This unit should be solid this season, even if some of its numbers look slightly worse.
UCF 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 5.5 Wins
UCF should be bowl bound this year, making the Over the right play when thinking about the win total. The Knights really should earn wins over Bethune-Cookman, Georgia State, and Iowa State, and the following games all seem winnable: at Pitt, vs. TCU, at Oklahoma State, vs. Baylor, at Kansas, vs. Arizona State, at Colorado. Picking up wins in three of those seven is all UCF needs to hit the six-win mark. That seems extremely reasonable given the talent on this roster.
UTAH UTES
It’s going to be strange seeing Utah without Kyle Whittingham. The two-time Pac-12 Coach of the Year has been with the Utes since 1994, and he did a good job of maintaining the standard of excellence that Urban Meyer put in place in his two years with the program (2003 and 2004). It is, however, Whittingham’s right-hand man that is taking over in Utah, as longtime defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley, who has been with the program since 2007, will get his crack at the top job.
Scalley has been tremendous coaching up the Utes’ defense, and there’s no reason he can’t continue the tradition of winning in Salt Lake City. This year’s team is actually plenty talented, but the fact that Whittingham went to Michigan did make things interesting. Whittingham took offensive coordinator Jason Beck with him to Ann Arbor, and some players followed — including defensive stars John Henry Daley and Smith Snowden.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
What’s going on at the quarterback position?
Devon Dampier is back for the Utes after throwing for 2,490 yards with 24 touchdowns and only five interceptions last year. He also rushed for 835 yards and 10 scores. Dampier is a dynamic dual-threat option under center, and he showed some minor improvements in accuracy during his first season with Utah. However, this team is going to give Byrd Ficklin snaps to see what he can do. At times, this approach will be tough for opponents to stop, but what happens when Utah faces elite defenses? As the saying goes, “when you have two quarterbacks, you really have none.” Will the Utes be able to consistently convert in key third-and-long situations? If not, their schedule could get the better of them.
Will the offensive line be this team’s Achilles heel?
Utah normally has big, burly dudes along the offensive line, and blocking is rarely an issue with this program. However, the Utes don’t return a single starter from last year’s team, and the only projected starter who was consistently starting games in 2025 is Montana State transfer Cedric Jefferson. Utah does have some impressive young pieces to play up front this year, including true freshman Kelvin Obot. He looks the part of a future pro. But there’s nothing that suggests this will be one of the better units in the Big 12, and this offense won’t look great without strong blocking.
Is this defense good enough for the Utes to compete at the highest level?
It’s brutal that Scalley was this team’s defensive coordinator last year, yet the team wasn’t able to keep Snowden and Henry Daley around. The Utes now enter the season with some major concerns on defense, which is quite new for a program that is consistently excellent on this side of the ball. Utah only has four returning starters in the projected lineup, and it’s the defensive line and linebackers that look shaky. The Utes should be extremely tough to throw against, but will they be able to stop the run? That’s looking like a potential weakness, and being unable to stop opponents from picking up chunk yardage has a trickle-down effect that impacts the secondary.
Utah 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 8.5 Wins
It’s always incredibly difficult for road teams to win games at Rice-Eccles Stadium, and Utah definitely has some impressive top-end talent on both sides of the ball. However, the Utes lost a legendary coach in Whittingham, they seem weaker in the trenches than usual, and Dampier’s arm abandoned him in big games last year. All of that makes it a little hard to buy into this team winning nine games. This team seems a little more likely to trip up in coin-flip games, or even lose some games you’d normally expect the Utes to win. The Arkansas game on September 12 should teach us quite a bit about the group.
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS
Rich Rodriguez went 4-8 in his return to West Virginia. It wasn’t the greatest season in the world, but his team won the Backyard Brawl against Pittsburgh and hung around in some games against good teams. Now, with a more talented roster and a much easier schedule, people are expecting the Mountaineers to flirt with bowl eligibility.
After having only 10 returning starters heading into last season, Rodriguez has 12 entering the 2026 season. West Virginia did well by adding some big-time transfer talent on offense, so this team should be a bit harder to stop. However, this was a shaky team on the defensive side of the ball last year. If the Mountaineers’ defense can’t find ways to consistently get off the field, Year 2 of the Rich Rod return won’t be much better than Year 1.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Will the Mountaineers get any better defensively?
West Virginia allowed 30.8 points per game last year, and the team was also just 64th in the nation in Adjusted EPA/Play Allowed (-0.01). The Mountaineers are going to need to be much better in 2026, and that’s especially true when looking at the passing defense. They gave up 265.0 yards per game through the air last season, ranking 129th in FBS. West Virginia looked to address the weak passing defense by adding some bigger corners from smaller programs, and the team also looks a bit better at safety. However, it’s still hard to fully buy into a complete turnaround here, and the team looks weak along the defensive line. So, anything the Mountaineers gain defending the pass could be given back defending the run.
What can be expected from some of these offensive pieces?
Michael Hawkins should be a good quarterback in the Rich Rod offense. He undoubtedly has room to improve as a thrower, but he’s an electric runner and made some big plays at Oklahoma. The Mountaineers also added Cam Cook from Jacksonville State. Last season, Cook rushed for 1,659 yards and 16 touchdowns. He should be one of the best running backs in the conference this year, giving West Virginia a running element the team lacked in 2025. An improved offensive line should also help there. The only position group that leaves a bit to be desired is the wide receiver room. It’s unclear who will step up and make plays for Hawkins on money downs. The best bet is probably Jaden Bray.
Will special teams be a problem for West Virginia?
Western Kentucky transfer Jack Cassidy is set to be the kicker for the Mountaineers, but he’s just 3 of 3 on field goals in his career. He did go 2 of 2 on 50+ yarders, so he clearly has a leg. But it’ll be interesting to see how he handles the pressure of playing for a massive program. If he can’t, Alabama transfer Peter Notaro will get his crack at it. We’ll also have to see how Bryan Hansen looks playing outside of Colorado. He averaged 47.9 yards per punt last season, so he has performed at a high level before. But it’s easier to kick for distance at that altitude. Let’s see how he looks in Morgantown.
West Virginia 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 5.5 Wins
West Virginia should get off to a 2-0 start, as the team will take on Coastal Carolina and Tennessee-Martin. From there, things get a little tougher. The Mountaineers will face a tough Virginia team before hosting Oklahoma State to kick off the Big 12 season. The outcome of that meeting with the Cowboys could determine whether they go Over or Under 5.5. The lean here is Under, though. Hawkins is a good running quarterback, but he has been underwhelming as a passer. Also, this defense needs to be much better after getting torched last year. If not, the offense needs to be flat-out special, which doesn’t seem likely.
