Week 1 College Football Power Ratings and Projections for Every Game

Week 1 College Football Power Ratings:

We’re going to find out a lot about some teams in Week 1 and find out pretty much nothing about others. This week does bring us a few outstanding matchups and some interesting Group of Six games, but we also have a lot of those “paycheck” games where lesser teams go on the road for an ass-kicking and a six or seven-figure pay day for the athletic department. Those games are even more important nowadays in the NIL era. We also have a bunch of FCS vs. FBS games on the docket.

While I don’t make my own numbers for any FCS game, I should mention briefly that losing to or coming close to losing to a FCS team really crushes a team’s optics and the public sentiment about them. Many wind up becoming very solid ATS teams because everybody discards them and never considers going back to them. The oddsmakers also make their adjustments about them as well and often go a bit too far in downgrading them.

The other point I want to drive home this week is that every team will play their best game and worst game of the season at some point and you just might happen to get your eyes on it. Just because you see a team once and they look like they could hang with an NFL team or look like they would lose to the top high school team in the state doesn’t mean that’s who they are going to be. All of the roster and coaching turnover creates a ton of early-season variance. Plus, as teams get tape on themselves and their opponents, they find a lot of things that they can fix.

Much like last week, these numbers have been up for a very long time. Early bettors have molded and shaped this market, much like they have the season win totals and futures. That doesn’t mean that the line moves will be correct. It doesn’t mean that the equity has been wiped out across the board. It simply means that opinions and positions have been stated by various groups and now we have bigger betting limits to see where these lines ultimately go.

I made some adjustments to the teams that played in Week 0, plus a team that got some disappointing injury news. It is tough early in the season to trust your prep and research from the summer and not overreact to what you saw or what the box score displayed. I try to give teams a bit of a grace period before I determine the degree to which my numbers are wrong. Remember, I sourced six different sets of rankings – Steve Makinen, Tyler Shoemaker’s T Shoe Index, Brad Powers, Bill Connelly’s SP+, ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), and TeamRankings – to create my initial numbers. It’s up to me now to track everything and move teams around accordingly.

We have five days worth of college football this week, with games Thursday-Monday. Not too shabby.

Week 1 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	93	3.5
2	Notre Dame	92.5	3.5
3	Oregon	92	3.5
4	Georgia	90.5	2.5
5	Indiana	90.5	3.5
6	Texas	90.5	3.5
7	Miami (Florida)	87.5	3
8	Texas Tech	86.5	3.5
9	Texas A&M	85.5	2
10	Alabama	84.5	3.5
11	LSU	84.5	3
12	Oklahoma	84	3
13	Mississippi	83.5	3.5
14	Michigan	83	2.5
15	USC	82	3
16	Tennessee	81	2.5
17	Penn State	80.5	2.5
18	Florida	80	2
19	BYU	79.5	3.5
20	Washington	79	3.5
21	Missouri	78.5	3.5
22	Iowa	78	3.5
23	SMU	78	3.5
24	South Carolina	78	2.5
25	Auburn	77.5	2
26	Clemson	77.5	2.5
27	Utah	77	2.5
28	Louisville	76.5	3.5
29	Virginia	76	2
30	Vanderbilt	75	2.5
31	Arizona	74.5	3
32	Houston	74.5	2
33	Florida State	74	2.5
34	Illinois	74	2.5
35	Kansas State	74	3
36	Virginia Tech	74	2
37	Nebraska	73.5	2
38	Pittsburgh	73.5	2.5
39	Arizona State	72	2
40	Boise State	71.5	3.5
41	Georgia Tech	71.5	2
42	Kentucky	71.5	2
43	TCU	71.5	2.5
44	Wisconsin	71.5	2
45	Minnesota	71	2.5
46	UCLA	71	1.5
47	Arkansas	70.5	1.5
48	Baylor	70.5	1.5
49	Mississippi State	70.5	2
50	Oklahoma State	70.5	2
51	Kansas	69.5	2.5
52	Northwestern	69.5	1.5
53	Duke	69	2.5
54	North Carolina State	69	2.5
55	Wake Forest	69	2
56	California	68.5	2
57	Cincinnati	68.5	1.5
58	Maryland	68.5	2
59	UCF	68	2
60	West Virginia	68	2
61	Colorado	67	2.5
62	Rutgers	66.5	2
63	UNLV	66.5	2.5
64	Michigan State	66	1.5
65	Navy	66	2.5
66	North Carolina	66	2
67	Stanford	66	1.5
68	Iowa State	65.5	2.5
69	Memphis	65.5	2.5
70	San Diego State	65.5	2
71	Syracuse	65.5	2.5
72	Fresno State	65	2
73	UTSA	65	3.5
74	James Madison	64.5	3.5
75	South Florida	64.5	3
76	Tulane	64.5	2.5
77	Purdue	64	1
78	East Carolina	63.5	2
79	North Dakota State	63.5	3.5
80	Army	63	2.5
81	Boston College	62	2
82	Texas State	62	2
83	Old Dominion	61.5	1.5
84	Washington State	61.5	3
85	Air Force	60.5	2
86	Hawai’i	60	3
87	New Mexico	60	2
88	Western Michigan	60	3.5
89	Utah State	59.5	3
90	Western Kentucky	59.5	3
91	Liberty	59	2.5
92	Miami (Ohio)	59	3.5
93	Marshall	58.5	3.5
94	Toledo	58.5	3.5
95	Troy	58.5	3
96	Florida Atlantic	57.5	1.5
97	North Texas	57.5	2.5
98	Louisiana-Lafayette	57	2
99	Temple	57	2
100	Arkansas State	56.5	2.5
101	Louisiana Tech	56.5	2
102	Oregon State	56.5	3.5
103	Tulsa	56.5	1
104	Georgia Southern	56	3.5
105	Jacksonville State	56	3.5
106	Delaware	55.5	1
107	Kennesaw State	55.5	2.5
108	Colorado State	55	2
109	Connecticut	55	3
110	Ohio	55	3.5
111	Appalachian State	54.5	2
112	Wyoming	54.5	2
113	Central Michigan	54	3
114	South Alabama	54	2
115	Florida International	53	2
116	Coastal Carolina	52.5	2
117	Nevada	52.5	1
118	Buffalo	52	2
119	Eastern Michigan	51.5	2.5
120	Rice	51.5	3
121	San Jose State	51.5	2.5
122	Bowling Green	50.5	2
123	Missouri State	50	2
124	New Mexico State	50	2.5
125	Southern Mississippi	49.5	2
126	UAB	49.5	2.5
127	Akron	48.5	2
128	Middle Tennessee	48.5	1.5
129	Georgia State	48	1
130	Northern Illinois	47.5	1.5
131	UTEP	47	1
132	Kent State	46.5	1
133	Sacramento State	46.5	2
134	Louisiana-Monroe	46	2
135	Charlotte	44.5	1
136	Sam Houston State	44.5	2
137	Ball State	44	3
138	Massachusetts	40	1

Every week, I’ll include the adjustments that I made and give the reasons why on the biggest movers (usually 3+ points):

Week 1 PR Adjustments

Up: Stanford +2.5, Memphis +1.5, Virginia +2.5, North Dakota State +1.5

Down: TCU -2, Sacramento State -1.5, Hawaii -1.5, Jacksonville State -1.5, NC State -1.5, USC -1.5, New Mexico -4 (Layne inj.)

Virginia +2.5: Beau Pribula looks like a great fit in this offense and the defense was dominant against NC State, a team that many had high hopes for entering the season. Game On Paper had the Wolfpack in the 3rd percentile in EPA/Play based off 2025 numbers. Woof.

Stanford +2.5: The Trees were coasting until Micah Alejado woke up in the fourth quarter. Davis Warren threw for over 300 yards in his Stanford debut, a good sign for HC Tavita Pritchard and “Andrew Luck Director of Offense” Terry Heffernan.

New Mexico -4: The Lobos have had time to adjust before playing a game, but the loss of QB Jack Layne for the season is a big deal. While he only had a 13/10 TD/INT ratio last season, he completed better than 65% of his passes for nearly 2,500 yards and now the Lobos don’t have a clear-cut QB.

My Week 1 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away	Home	Line
9/3	UMass	Rutgers	-28.5
	Akron	Wake Forest	-22.5
	Colorado	Georgia Tech	-6.5
	UAB	Illinois	-27
9/4	San Jose State	Eastern Michigan	-2.5
	Toledo	Michigan State	-9
	Fresno State	USC	-20
	Miami (FL)	Stanford	+20
	UTEP	Oklahoma	-40
9/5	Miami (OH)	Pitt	-17
	Boston College	Cincinnati	-8
	Coastal Carolina	West Virginia	-17.5
	Liberty	James Madison	-9
	Marshall	Penn State	-24.5
	Western Michigan	Michigan	-25.5
	Tulane	Duke	-7
	Kent State	South Carolina	-34
	FIU	South Florida	-14.5
	Ball State	Ohio State	-52.5
	FAU	Florida	-24.5
	North Texas	Indiana	-36.5
	Oklahoma State	Tulsa	+13
	East Carolina	Alabama	-24.5
	UL Monroe	Mississippi State	-26.5
	Ohio	Nebraska	-20.5
	Texas State	Texas	-32
	Missouri State	Texas A&M	-37.5
	Northern Illinois	Iowa	-34
	Central Michigan	New Mexico	-8
	Wyoming	Colorado State	-2.5
	UCLA	Cal	+0.5
	Western Kentucky	Nevada	+6
	Boise State	Oregon	-24
	Baylor	Auburn (N – Atlanta)	-7
	Oregon State	Houston	-20
	Sam Houston State	Troy	-17
	Arkansas State	Memphis	-11.5
	UNLV	Hawaii	+3.5
	Clemson	LSU	-10
9/6	Washington State	Washington	-21
	Wisconsin	Notre Dame (N – Green Bay)	-21
	Louisville	Ole Miss (N – Nashville)	-7
9/7	SMU	Florida State	+1.5

Games to consider:

Stanford +24.5 (+20.5) vs. Miami (FL): Miami does have the luxury of having the new-look Stanford team on film, but Davis Warren really exceeded my expectations against Hawaii. Clearly this is a much harder matchup, but Stanford was +1.99 YPP and pretty clearly the better team, even if the game was hanging in the balance late.

James Madison -6.5 (-9) vs. Liberty: Prove it to me, Jamey Chadwell. Prove to me that Liberty is back. I know JMU is going through the loss of another coach and another major roster overhaul, but Chadwell’s Liberty tenure has been a bust and I’m probably lower on them than the market as a result.

East Carolina +28.5 (+24.5) at Alabama: I really love how tenacious the ECU defense plays for HC Blake Harrell. My worry here is how much they can score because it’s hard for any G6 team to hold Alabama’s talent down.

Central Michigan +10.5 (+8) at New Mexico: CMU has a ground-and-pound style attack and HC Matt Drinkall, who was Army’s OL coach, has recruited a larger offensive line. With New Mexico’s QB uncertainty in a game that could have limited possessions, CMU is not only an ATS candidate, but an outright one as well.

Western Kentucky -2.5 (-6) at Nevada: The travel to Reno is worrisome here for WKU, especially with the air conditions thanks to the wildfires as a possible compromising factor to add to the elevation. But, I really think WKU is the vastly better team.

We’ll fire up our regular weekly cadence on the College Football Betting Podcast this week, and I’ll be on every Monday to discuss some things about my power ratings, fire off some more hot takes so other fan bases can hate me, and give you an early look at my thoughts on the games, especially when we have weeknight action.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.