On Wednesday, December 11th, shock waves were sent through the college football world, as Bill Belichick was announced as the new head coach of the North Carolina Tar Heels. Just a few hours later, we experienced some of our own at VSiN, as Michael Lombardi is heading to Chapel Hill to be the program’s general manager. The host of The Lombardi Line talked about the move earlier today.
This is a wild story for a lot of reasons. For starters, Belichick is a six-time Super Bowl champion and three-time NFL Coach of the Year. So, despite the fact that he’s 72 years old, if he still wants to coach, NFL teams should probably be lining up to hire him. And that’s especially true with Belichick having some motivation. At 333 career wins, Belichick isn’t far off Don Shula’s record of 347. With that in mind, any NFL team that hired Belichick would have had a fired-up sideline patroller for at least a couple of years. But the NFL’s loss is college football’s gain, and this is now setting up to be one of the best stories of the 2025 season.
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After a 2024 season in which the Tar Heels went 6-6 overall and 3-5 in the ACC, the program decided to move on from 73-year-old Mack Brown. Naturally, the thought was that North Carolina wanted a younger head coach. And while Belichick is one year younger than Brown, this isn’t exactly what people had in mind. However, Belichick has a lot more to give than Brown at this point. The New England legend is excited about what he can build in an awesome college town, and he has a clear vision of how he can use his professional experience to build a powerhouse at the college level. That vision includes 400 pages of plans, a significant NIL budget, our guy Lombardi and several coaches with NFL experience.
Expectations are going to be high in North Carolina. The Tar Heels have one of the best coaches in the history of football, and they’re playing in arguably the worst Power Four conference. Within the next few years, people are going to be hoping that Belichick can take North Carolina to the College Football Playoff. And that’s surely what Belichick wants. He’s not going back to college for a paycheck. He believes he can win, and he believes he can win big. But how long will it take for North Carolina to be factor? Is it unrealistic to expect the Tar Heels to play in a good bowl game in 2025? Let’s take a quick look.
2025 North Carolina Schedule
August 30th: vs. TCU Horned Frogs
September 6th: at Charlotte 49ers
September 13th: vs. Richmond Spiders
September 20th: at UCF Knights
TBA: at California Golden Bears
TBA: at NC State Wolfpack
TBA: vs. Clemson Tigers
TBA: vs. Duke Blue Devils
TBA: vs. Stanford Cardinal
TBA: vs. Virginia Cavaliers
TBA: at Syracuse Orange
TBA: at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
2025 North Carolina Regular Season Win Total
As of right now, DraftKings Sportsbook has the Tar Heels’ regular season win total set at 6.5. The Over is priced at -170, while the Under is priced at +130. However, you can also head over to FanDuel, where the total is 7.5 right now. The Over on 7.5 is priced at +102, and the Under is currently -136.
2025 North Carolina Prediction
We still don’t know what this roster will look like in 2025, but we know Belichick and Lombardi will be aggressive in the transfer portal. And if North Carolina has some success landing guys that have started elsewhere, how can you not like the Over? Belichick is one of the brightest minds in this history of this sport. He should be able to coach circles around most of his peers, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
The Tar Heels also have an extremely favorable schedule in 2025. North Carolina will only face five teams that had winning regular-season records in 2024, and one of those is Richmond. The Spiders are an FCS program. Also, the Heels will be playing at home in three of the other four meetings with winning teams.
Clemson will undoubtedly be a tough matchup. The Tigers are always loaded on both sides of the ball, and Dabo Swinney can obviously coach. But that’s going to be a game that Belichick circles immediately. He’s surely out to prove that he’s levels above the best college coaches. And even if North Carolina does lose that game, it’s hard to imagine the team not finding seven or eight wins. Without knowing much of anything about the team Belichick will field in 2025, you can expect the Heels to earn wins over Charlotte, Richmond, Stanford, Virginia and Wake Forest. And as long as this roster looks average, I’ll take my chances in a few of the others. I have a hard time believing a solid Belichick-led roster will lose a home game against TCU, or road games against average programs like UCF, Cal and NC State.
Whether it’s dealing with the juice on the 6.5 or getting plus-money odds for 7.5, I suggest going Over and putting trust in Belichick to figure out the roster. If the money is right, what kind of player would pass up the opportunity to play for arguably the greatest coach of all time?
