Boise State Broncos:
Spencer Danielson took the program over on Nov. 12 last season after the firing of Andy Avalos. Under Danielson, the Broncos went 3-1 SU and ATS and won the Mountain West, an achievement that was enough to get him the full-time job.
Danielson now enters his first full season with massive expectations. Boise State has 17 starters back from last season. That includes the entire starting defense. The Broncos brought in a former five-star recruit in Malachi Nelson at quarterback, and they have the best player in the conference in running back Ashton Jeanty.
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There are many – including the Bronco Nation faithful – that believe a playoff team resides in southwest Idaho.
Offense
Any conversation about Boise State’s offense begins not at the quarterback position, but at running back. Ashton Jeanty is the best player in the Mountain West. He totaled 1,916 yards from scrimmage last season and scored 19 touchdowns. Jeanty will run behind an offensive line that brings back four players that started at least seven games in 2023.
Quarterback is undecided as of now, but the talent at the position is solid. Malachi Nelson is a former five-star recruit who transferred in from USC. Many believe it is his job to lose, but the scuttlebutt out of Boise is that offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter loves Maddux Madsen. The redshirt sophomore appeared in nine games last season and accounted for 1,355 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Wide receiver is the position that faces the biggest turnover. Three of their top four receivers from 2023 are gone. The big transfer to watch: former Texas A&M WR Chris Marshall. The program also added Cam Camper from Indiana.
Defense
Boise State brings back the entire starting unit from 2023. That would seemingly be a strength, but this unit had its issues last season. The Broncos allowed 6.1 yards per play. They finished 71st in opponent EPA per play (0.057) and 82nd in opponent EPA per play on early downs. The 25.8 points per game allowed by this unit was the second-most allowed in the last seven years.
Erik Chinander comes in to serve as defensive coordinator under Danielson. The continuity is a positive, but it is important to not overrate a unit which was statistically below average last season.
Outlook
Boise State has the potential to serve as the Group of Five representative in the College Football Playoff. However, this team is hardly perfect. An undecided quarterback position and a defense which was average at best in some categories could hold this team back. The Broncos draw some challenges on the schedule as well. Road trips to Oregon, UNLV and Wyoming will be difficult. The home schedule is soft enough to get this team to nine wins, but to lay such a price on 10 or more wins is too much.
Pick: Under 9 Wins
