Boise State vs. Washington
Are you ready for bowl season? Well, it doesn’t really matter if you are or not because Boise State vs. Washington in the LA Bowl gets things going very early on December 13. Actually, let me be more specific. This is the “Bucked Up” LA Bowl. In that respect, the Broncos seem to be a reasonable fit, since Broncos buck, but I don’t think Huskies buck. They sure do whine a lot, though.
Anywho, this will be the third bowl season meeting between Boise State and Washington. The other two were in Las Vegas, back in 2012, a Boise State 28-26 win, and in 2019, a Washington 38-7 win. The 2019 game was kind of awkward in that former Broncos head coach Chris Petersen was on the other sideline. That was the last game at Sam Boyd Stadium, as the Las Vegas Bowl is now at Allegiant Stadium. But, enough about the past and the animal mascots. Let’s get to this game.
Odds from Circa Sports as of December 10, 5:00 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Bucked Up LA Bowl: Boise State vs. Washington (-9.5, 53) Preview
Saturday, Dec. 13, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
For those who don’t know (I didn’t), Bucked Up is an energy drink and another fun fact is that this bowl game is hosted by Rob Gronkowski. He’ll be happy to know that both Matt Lauter and Decker DeGraaf are valuable parts of these two passing attacks, as the Boise State TE has 32 grabs for 293 yards and the Washington TE has 31 grabs for 353 yards.
Perhaps most importantly for this game, both guys will have their starting quarterbacks. Demond Williams Jr. has been there throughout the season for the Huskies, as he’s racked up nearly 3,500 total yards, with 2,850 passing and 595 more on the ground, while finding the end zone 21 times through the air and six times as the ball carrier. He’s completed 70% of his passes and he’ll be back for another go in Jedd Fisch’s offense next season (unless Fisch gets hired elsewhere).
Leading rusher Jonah Coleman will not be, as he’s carried the ball into the end zone 14 times this season across 144 carries. The Huskies have averaged 4.7 yards per carry and their 29 rushing scores enter the bowl season tied for 25th. Boise State does as well, as star running back Dylan Riley and his timeshare teammate Sire Gaines have admirably filled the large, imposing cleats of Ashton Jeanty. Riley needs a carry or two to surpass 1,100 yards for the season and Gaines needs a carry or two to climb over 800. They’ve combined for 18 rushing TD and Washington also has 29 overall.
The two running games mostly cancel out from a productivity standpoint, but obviously Washington played the tougher schedule in the Big Ten. That said, Boise State also had to play a few games without QB Maddux Madsen, allowing teams to flood the box and force unproven Max Cutforth to beat them. Madsen returned for the Mountain West Championship Game against UNLV and looked like his normal self with three TD passes and 289 yards. Over three starts and one relief appearance, Cutforth only threw three TD passes.
Back to that schedule discussion, Jeff Sagarin has Washington with the 44th-ranked strength of schedule and three of their four losses this season came against top-30 teams – Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon. Boise State’s SOS ranks in the 80s and they lost to a top-30 team (Notre Dame) and another fringe top-30 team (South Florida).
While Washington was playing a much tougher schedule, they were a metrics darling throughout most of the season. An 8-4 record doesn’t seem that impressive, but Washington enters the bowl season 22nd in yards per play on offense and 20th in YPP on defense. A lot of statistical models for early college football bettors with market influence are yards per play based and that’s part of the reason why this line has risen. Boise State sits 50th and 54th, respectively.
Boise State vs. Washington LA Bowl Prediction
As long as Washington protects the football, they should win and cover. Boise State forced 22 takeaways, but 16 came against Mountain West opponents. The return of Madsen obviously helps Boise State’s cause here, especially since he showed no signs of rust in the MWC title game. I still don’t think that’s enough, so long as Washington shows up sufficiently motivated to play. With a loss to rival Oregon in the regular season finale and an early bowl game to keep a more talented roster more intact, it’s the Huskies for me.
Pick: Washington -9.5
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