Buffalo vs. Liberty:
When the College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams, it was believed that the Liberty Flames had a great shot to make it as the highest-ranked Group of Five champion. The schedule was set up well and the team had a ton of returning production, including star QB Kaidon Salter.
And yet here the Flames are, playing the final bowl game for the non-CFP teams against the Buffalo Bulls, a MAC qualifier that really overperformed during an 8-4 season. This is the Bahamas Bowl on Saturday January 4 and very much not where Jamey Chadwell expected his team to be.
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Bahamas Bowl: Buffalo Bulls (-2.5, 51) vs. Liberty Flames
How To Watch The Bahamas Bowl
When: Saturday January 4, 11 a.m. ET
How: ESPN2
Where: Thomas A. Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas
Not only is Liberty playing in this game something of a surprise, being an underdog might be the most telling thing of all. Salter transferred to Colorado and he is not the only player who will bypass a free trip to the Bahamas. Three starting offensive linemen are not going to play in this game and there could be more defections as we approach kickoff.
App State transfer Ryan Burger gets the start in place of Salter. Burger has played college football for three seasons and thrown a total of 24 passes. He threw seven during the regular season for the Flames. Interestingly, the Myrtle Beach native was offered by Chadwell when he was the head coach at Coastal Carolina, but Burger opted to go to north instead. Now Burger has been reunited with Chadwell in a different spot. But, Chadwell has been interested more than once.
Leading rusher Quinton Cooley, who is small at 5-foot-7, has racked up over 2,600 rushing yards the last two seasons. But he won’t play. For a Liberty team that was second in the nation in rushing yards per game, the loss of the top back is a huge deal. The Flames are taking a “shell of the team” to Nassau in Chadwell’s words.
Unlike Liberty, the Bulls have a full complement of players on both sides of the ball. C.J. Ogbonna did a good job of taking care of the football with a 19/5 TD/INT ratio. He only had 311 rushing yards, but he did well to avoid sacks by scrambling. That also allowed Buffalo to extend some drives by not having the big negative plays. He only threw for 2,244 yards, so this is not an explosive-play unit. In fact, Buffalo entered the week 102nd in plays of 10+ yards on offense. Liberty had 21 more plays of 10+ yards, though both teams do have the same number of 20+ yard plays.
Salter isn’t there and the motivation for Chadwell’s team is perfectly fair to question. Buffalo does not go bowling often and Pete Lembo has really gotten a lot out of this Bulls bunch this season. Chadwell’s offense is a bit complicated to match up against with a ton of pre-snap motion to create opportunities in space and numbers in the running game, but Lembo has had a ton of time to prep and has a team clearly more interested in being there.
Pick: Buffalo -2.5
