College Football Picks
It is crazy to think that we are making Week 5 college football picks already. The season is flying by and it feels like we still don’t have a good grasp on who most of these teams are based on the wide variety of outcomes and performances. This week, we have to add in another head coach firing and some quarterback changes, whether it was an ongoing competition/timeshare, based on an injury, or just a change in hopes of sparking the team.
At least we are pretty much done with weird travel spots and non-conference games. We are just barely into double digits this week with non-conference clashes. We’ll see if the renewed familiarity of conference opponents and coaches who have gone head-to-head helps us get a little more consistency in the results or not.
These are my favorite Week 5 college football picks, but we have many others. You can check out our Week 5 College Football Hub to see what others are taking and also to explore all of our college football tools, power ratings, and more. See our College Football Pro Picks page for more from my colleagues and broadcast guests.
Here are my Week 5 College Football Picks:
Odds as of Wednesday, September 24, 2:45 p.m. PT
Georgia Tech (-14, 52) at Wake Forest
Noon ET (ESPN)
Georgia Tech improved to 4-0 last week with a beatdown of Temple. It has been a while since we’ve seen the Demon Deacons. After opening the season with Kennesaw State and Western Carolina, the Deacs had to play NC State on a short week, so it will have been 16 days between games when they take the field for this one.
Three games in essentially 13 days was a lot for first-year head coach Jake Dickert in getting his team in shape for the season. But, I do really like DC Scottie Hazelton and Dickert did a good job at Washington State, so I think that the boys from Winston-Salem should be pretty buttoned-up here.
Multi-time transfer Robby Ashford is a mobile QB and Demond Claiborne is the best offensive player on the team, so there’s a decent chance that the Demon Deacons can play keep away in this game. If nothing else, defending a player like Ashford should have them ready for defending a guy like Haynes King. Ashford isn’t much of a passer, so I’m expecting Wake Forest to try and limit the number of possessions in this one and keep it as close as possible.
In three FBS games, Georgia Tech has allowed 4.6 yards per carry. Clemson isn’t the same team as they’ve been in the past and Colorado doesn’t look great. Not that Wake Forest is great either, but this line seems a little bit hefty given my expectations of the game state and with the hope that Wake Forest has used this extra prep time to take some steps forward.
Pick: Wake Forest +14
UCLA at Northwestern (-6.5, 44.5)
3:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
While traveling from LAX to ORD is a bit of a haul, it’s not that bad and it’s not snowing yet. So, UCLA has that going for them as they get ready to play on the shores of Lake Michigan against Northwestern. The other thing that UCLA has going for them is that interim head coach Tim Skipper seems to have brought a little bit of life back into the program. Of course, it’s by his own accord that practices have been more spirited and guys are working hard. We’ll see for sure when they get between the lines.
But, the Wildcats really haven’t done much to show that covering almost a touchdown is a given for them. Sure, Tulane and Oregon are two extremely tough FBS opponents early in the season, but Preston Stone has already thrown six interceptions, as the SMU transfer hasn’t really found his rhythm in Zach Lujan’s offense. None of the QBs did last season either.
The Huskies should definitely be good defensively under the watchful gaze of HC David Braun and DC Tim McGarigle, who remains the program’s all-time leading tackler. But, we probably haven’t seen what UCLA is capable of with the football yet. Nico Iamaleava was a very expensive recruit when he went to Tennessee, and while he wasn’t sought after this offseason, he obviously had enough talent and film to be a highly-regarded player.
If nothing else, effort would be an upgrade out of UCLA because we saw none with Deshaun Foster at the helm. Northwestern’s last cover laying 6 or higher against a Power Five team was back in the COVID year of 2020 against Illinois, where they covered 13.5 in a 28-10 win. Most of their favorite roles like this have been against FCS or MAC schools. They did cover against Maryland that season as well, but in a non-COVID year, their last -6 or higher cover against a P5 team was in 2017 against Illinois.
Just rare air here for a team that probably doesn’t deserve it.
Pick: UCLA +6.5
Rice at Navy (-14.5, 44.5)
3:30 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
Every line tells a story. In a game where you are going to get a ton of rushing attempts, Navy is still a 14.5-point favorite. The total implies a low-scoring expectation, which is not a big surprise at all, given that these two teams are first and 12th in rushing attempts. Rice has played four games and Navy has only played three, hence the big gap between the two.
The Middies have averaged 56.7 rushing attempts per game and the Owls have averaged 53.5. But, Navy should be far more proficient with the running game here. Rice is installing the triple-option, and it has been pretty successful to this point, but now they’re playing a team that knows every single intricacy of that offense, although Drew Cronic has given Navy some different looks and a deeper play selection.
Rice has played the harder schedule, but Navy has 6.6 yards per carry on offense and has allowed 3.01 yards per carry. The Owls have allowed 3.98 YPC and have rushed for 4.6. Blake Horvath and Alex Tecza each have six yards per carry thus far. Eli Heidenreich has 8.7 yards per carry. It just seems like Navy should be more explosive and also have the more disciplined, more gap-responsible defense to go up against this type of opponent.
The game will have limited possessions, but I expect Navy to be much more efficient on both sides of the ball.
Pick: Navy -14.5
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