College Football Picks
Some teams will be halfway through the regular season by the end of the weekend, as the calendar is just ripping by. We’re already making Week 6 college football picks, even though it feels like the season just started in Dublin back in Week 0. In any event, we’re pretty much exclusively on conference play now and hopefully that takes some of the variance out of the equation.
Because of realignment and expansion, conference games can feature some long travel spots now, like a Washington vs. Maryland. A lot of the long travel situations have seen the traveling team get bet against. In this case, though, the traveling team is actually taking some respected money. Those are the types of context clues you want to look for in the betting markets, whether they are the tipping point on making a wager or serve as a potential voice of reason.
These are my favorite Week 6 college football picks, but we have many others. You can check out our Week 6 College Football Hub to see what others are taking and also to explore all of our college football tools, power ratings, and more. See our College Football Pro Picks page for more from my colleagues and broadcast guests.
Here are my Week 6 College Football Picks:
Odds as of Wednesday, October 1, 3:00 p.m. PT
Oregon State at Appalachian State (-1.5, 53)
3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
The winless Beavers are taking a very long trip from Corvallis to Boone, as they’ll go up in the mountains in search of their first victory. It could be tough to come by, as a pretty bad App State team is a favorite here. But, it is worth noting that the orphaned Oregon State squad has played the fourth-hardest schedule this season per Jeff Sagarin.
App State is 2-2 against the 128th-ranked schedule per Sagarin and the Beavers are actually ranked quite a bit higher (104) than App State (135) in his power rankings. I, too, have Oregon State well ahead of App State and even make the Beavers a 5.5-point favorite here.
Duke transfer Maalik Murphy hasn’t been great this season with a 58% completion rate and a 7/5 TD/INT ratio, but he hasn’t thrown a pick in his last two games. He actually threw for 371 yards in the losing effort to Fresno State and 281 in the loss to Texas Tech. I do think he’s capable of moving the ball. App State has allowed just shy of five yards per play, but over 5.6 yards per play to FBS opponents, as their data point against Lindenwood does skew the data a bit.
Offensively, the Mountaineers have just 5.23 yards per play against FBS opponents. Oregon State has just 4.87, but they’ve been held to under 3.8 yards per play by Oregon and Texas Tech. App State is not on that level.
Orphaned or not, I just think the talent level at Oregon State is higher than the talent level at App State and, even though they lost a close one last week, the Beavers crushed Houston in the box score with a much higher net success rate. I think that helps as they step way down in class here.
Pick: Oregon State +1.5
James Madison (-20, 53.5) at Georgia State
3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
The Dukes and Panthers battle it out at what used to be Turner Field in Atlanta, as James Madison looks to cover a big number. It may be possible, as Georgia State has allowed over seven yards per play this season, but the context matters here. To help fund the athletic department’s endeavors, Georgia State has played Ole Miss, Memphis, Murray State, and Vanderbilt. The two SEC teams hung 133 combined points and 1,330 yards on the poor Panthers defense.
They had 8.75 yards per play. Memphis also racked up 6.7. But now they face a James Madison team that stays on the field, but doesn’t create a lot of explosive plays. The Dukes are tied for 73rd with 60 plays of 10+ yards, tied for 84th with 18 plays of 20+ yards, and tied for 117th with five plays of 30+ yards. Georgia State’s beleaguered defense should have at least a little more of a chance here.
But, the Panthers offense probably won’t do much of anything. While the Dukes have lacked explosives on offense, they’ve prevented them on defense. They’ve only allowed 3.75 yards per play and have only allowed nine red zone trips with three touchdowns. They’re also a top-20 defense by third-down conversion rate.
This looks to me like a JMU team that will play ferocious defense, but will also be pretty methodical on offense. I think that has the chance to be a good recipe for an Under. There are some 54s lurking out there, so shop around!
Pick: Under 53.5
Nevada at Fresno State (-13.5, 45)
10:30 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
This type of handicap worked for me last week with Wake Forest getting two touchdowns against Georgia Tech. I mentioned how Jake Dickert had started with three games in 13 days and it was tough for the Demon Deacons to get in enough good practice time to show improvement. They nearly beat the Yellow Jackets outright.
I’m looking at something fairly similar here, as Matt Entz and Fresno State played in Week 0, so they played five straight weeks before having a bye last week. After losing 31-7 to Kansas to open the season, the Bulldogs are 4-0 and won at Oregon State and Hawaii. While the wins weren’t all that pretty, they were wins nonetheless.
Nevada is terrible. The Wolf Pack are off of a bye themselves, but I don’t think there’s a high ceiling for improvement. Losing at home to Middle Tennessee is embarrassing. They’ve maxed out at 20 points this season and now face the best defense they’ve seen since that Week 1 loss to Penn State. Fresno State is not Penn State on defense, but Entz is a defensive coordinator by trade and the Bulldogs have only allowed 4.86 yards per play in the four games since the Kansas opener.
Hawaii covered, but only had 4.16 yards per play. I think Nevada has the worst offense in the conference and one of the worst offenses in the country. Chubba Purdy has thrown six interceptions against one TD pass. Jeff Choate, who probably had no business being hired in Reno in the first place, doesn’t seem eager to make a change.
I think with two weeks of prep, a higher talent level, and a really good, up-and-coming head coach, Fresno State rolls here.
Pick: Fresno State -13.5
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