College Football Picks
As we all learned when we were kids, 10 comes after 9 and I cannot believe that we are getting into double digits next week with the college football season. It seems like it is just blazing by. I won’t say it feels like just yesterday that I was making Week 1 college football picks, but it sure doesn’t seem like I should be making Week 9 college football picks already.
On the plus side, that means games are increasing in importance, whether the goals are making the College Football Playoff, just making a bowl game, or something in between. Every week from here on out will have games that impact the CFP picture, but I’m looking all over the Saturday card to find my plays, no matter the conference, no matter the team, no matter the stakes.
These are my favorite Week 9 college football picks, but we have many others. You can check out our Week 9 College Football Hub to see what others are taking and also to explore all of our college football tools, power ratings, and more. See our College Football Pro Picks page for more from my colleagues and broadcast guests.
Here are my Week 9 College Football Picks:
Odds as of Friday, October 22, 4:10 p.m. PT
Mississippi at Oklahoma (-5, 54.5)
Saturday, Noon ET
An early start in Norman here for this one, as the Rebels look to get back in the win column after falling short against Georgia last week. The Sooners got back on the right side with a 26-7 win over South Carolina after losing to Texas.
The Oklahoma defense sure seems legit, as they’ve only allowed more than 17 points in a game once this season. But, that defense will absolutely be tested by Trinidad Chambliss and Ole Miss. Michigan was using Bryce Underwood on the road for the first time. None of the other offenses that the Sooners have played are scary, including Texas with how Arch Manning has played. This is a big step up in class for this defense.
Brian Fremeau of BCFToys.com has the Sooners with the 59th-ranked strength of opposing offenses, while Ole Miss ranks 24th. Oklahoma’s defense has obviously been very good, but this is just indicative of how they haven’t faced an offense like Lane Kiffin’s and it could be a big wake-up call.
Not only that, but John Mateer had a rough game against Texas with three interceptions and just 202 yards. A week later, he had 150 passing yards against South Carolina, only ran eight times for 14 yards, and his longest pass was just 20 yards. Oklahoma didn’t really need him to be great in that game, but it sure seemed like a watered-down performance. He’ll have to do more here against the Rebels.
Chambliss has racked up nearly 2,000 total yards, despite not starting from Week 1. He’s also only been sacked five times. Oklahoma is tied for the national lead with 28 sacks. It seems like that strength of the Sooners defense may be mitigated here with what Chambliss does well.
I’ll pay to see Oklahoma shine against a legitimate top-10 team, given that they haven’t played one yet.
Pick: Mississippi +5
Utah State at New Mexico (-3, 61)
Saturday, 3 p.m. ET
The Bronco Mendenhall Game is this weekend in Albuquerque, as Mendenhall spent one season with the Lobos and then took the job at Utah State, returning to the Beehive State after his long tenure at BYU. New Mexico came out of that deal pretty well with a good head coach in Jason Eck.
Mendenhall is sure to be familiar with some of the New Mexico personnel and he had a 5-7 season there, but that was with Devon Dampier. Current QB Jack Layne has an 8/8 TD/INT ratio. The Lobos have done okay running the football, but Layne has put the ball in harm’s way a good amount.
Meanwhile, Utah State QB Bryson Barnes has a 13/2 TD/INT ratio this season. He has been sacked 24 times, so that has been a major issue for the Aggies, and New Mexico does have 16 sacks in seven games. The Lobos haven’t turned that pass rush into takeaways, though, as they only have four to go against 16 turnovers, so they are tied for last in the nation in TO margin at -12.
With a top-30 offense by yards per play, this is a very dangerous Aggies group, especially if they are able to get some extra possessions out of the equation. The Aggies have been blown out by Texas A&M and Vanderbilt and played one really bad quarter against Hawaii out in Honolulu. Otherwise, they’ve played really well for the most part.
New Mexico had all sorts of problems last week with an awful Nevada team and San Jose State, another efficient passing team, put up 35 points over three quarters to hold on for a 35-28 win with Walker Eget going 26-of-30 for 327 yards and three touchdowns.
I think this is just a tough schematic matchup for the Lobos.
Pick: Utah State +3
Houston at Arizona State (-7, 47)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
Conference play has been a whirlwind for the Sun Devils this season. They went to Salt Lake City and got pummeled by Utah in a game where QB Sam Leavitt wasn’t available. They upset Texas Tech at home last week with Leavitt back in the lineup. And now they have another injury to deal with, as star WR Jordyn Tyson is out.
Tyson has 57 catches for 628 yards and eight touchdowns. TE Chamon Metayer has 21 catches and running back Raleek Brown has 25. Nobody else has more than eight. Tyson’s yardage total more than triples any other wide receiver and is nearly triple Metayer. He has eight of the team’s nine receiving scores. He’s a substantial loss. The line did move as a result of the announcement that he’ll be out, but maybe not enough, especially with a banged-up Leavitt having to wait for guys to maybe get separation or to go through his progressions.
Leavitt didn’t play a game, but it is worth noting that Houston has outgained Arizona State by 0.85 yards per play in conference games. Arizona State’s defense has been slightly better in Big 12 play, but not by a large margin. Houston got routed by Texas Tech, so maybe that’s weighing into the handicap here, but that’s the only loss on the ledger for Willie Fritz’s squad.
Arizona State’s best defensive attribute is getting after the QB, as they have 21 sacks in seven games. Conner Weigman has only been sacked 11 times and has 66 carries for 243 yards while escaping danger. Also, he has an 11/2 TD/INT ratio. According to CFB Graphs, Houston has a 5.2% Rush Rate Over Expected based on down and distance, so they like to run the football a lot. If nothing else, that should keep them from getting routed in this game, especially with Tyson out.
Pick: Houston +7
For more best bets and Week 9 College Football content, click here.
