California vs. Hawaii
On Wednesday, December 24, the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors will face the California Golden Bears in the 2025 Hawaii Bowl. This one will be played at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, making this a home game for Timmy Chang’s football team. That’s a nice little advantage for the Rainbow Warriors, who also have fewer injuries and potential opt-outs to deal with. However, as far as bowl games go, these teams are in decent shape heading into this one. That’s especially true at the quarterback position, where we’ll see a duel between Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and Micah Alejado. Keep reading for thoughts on how California vs. Hawaii will play out.
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Hawaii Bowl: California vs. Hawaii (-1.5, 52.5)
Wednesday, December 24 at 8:00 pm ET (ESPN)
Cal had some really good wins throughout the course of the season, but finishing on a positive note is going to be a real challenge. The Golden Bears head into this game with an interesting situation on the sidelines, as they fired head coach Justin Wilcox and then turned things over to Nick Rolovich. Oddly enough, Rolovich used to be the head coach at Hawaii, so he has a shot at beating his former team here. However, you do have to wonder how motivated the Cal players will be — even though Rolovich will be staying on as quarterbacks coach under new head coach Tosh Lupoi, the Oregon defensive coordinator that will be taking over this program.
Not only are the Golden Bears dealing with more uncertainty than the Rainbow Warriors, but Hawaii might just be a better football team. That might be odd to say when comparing an ACC opponent with a Mountain West opponent, but CFB Graphs has the Rainbow Warriors ranked a little higher in both EPA per play (-0.013 vs. -0.038) and EPA per play allowed (-0.012 vs. 0.013).
What’s especially troubling for Cal is that the team is just 114th in the nation in Early Down EPA per play (-0.106). This team constantly puts a ton of pressure on Sagapolutele. The talented freshman has responded with some big performances, and I’m not sure you can rule out another here. However, consistently putting your young quarterback in difficult situations isn’t a winning formula.
Cal is also just 86th in the nation in success on third and fourth downs (39.9%), while Hawaii is 35th on converting those plays (46.0%). That could make a difference here.
It’s also just going to be fun to see Alejado go to work. Sagapolutele will get most of the attention coming into this one, but Alejado is another special freshman signal-caller. He should be up to the task of balling out against this Golden Bears defense, which is very beatable. And that’s especially true with this being a home game.
Hawaii also happens to be 7-4 straight-up under Chang when playing at home against teams that allow a completion percentage of 58.0% or higher. His Run-and-Shoot system is designed to shred leaky passing defenses, and that’s exactly what Cal has. I’ll also note that defenses don’t get better by moving on from Wilcox. He might have his weak spots as a head coach, but he’s undoubtedly a great defensive mind.
California vs. Hawaii – Hawaii Bowl Prediction
The Golden Bears were a fun team to watch throughout the course of the season, but it’s hard to stay focused at this point in the season when you’re playing for an interim coach. It’s also hard to go to Hawaii and beat a good Rainbow Warriors team.
Pick: Hawaii ML (-110 – 1.5 units)
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