Week 1 CFB Line Moves and Late-Week Bets from the T Shoe Index

I think one of the most valuable tools you can have in your handicapping toolbox is the ability (and willingness) to evaluate line moves – both sides and totals – to understand the context of the current number. As my personal general rule of thumb, if a side has moved more than a couple points (assuming it’s not a 40-point spread) towards me, I likely won’t bet it, even if my T Shoe Index indicates value on the current number because it is wise to respect oddsmakers’ opening number, which is basically just their algorithmic projection sprinkled with a little line-shading to one side or another, based on anticipated action. Having that in mind, I like to make bets shortly after opening early in the week, and then re-evaluate the market on Thursday to see where lines have gone and what new values those might have opened up, using the TSI. 

A perfect example of this is the Northwestern/Miami (OH) game. I bet Under 43 last week, and that line is now down to 39.5. Even though my projection is 37, it wouldn’t be prudent to continue betting or giving out the under after a 3.5-point line move towards me. At this point, I would stay away if I didn’t already have a good bet in my pocket. Let’s use this concept to see where lines have moved for Week 1 of the college football season and see if we can add to our portfolio. 

 

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San Jose State (-3) vs. Sacramento State

This line opened with San Jose State as a 7.5-point favorite, much closer to the TSI-projected line of 9.5; however, we’ve seen a 4.5-point line move down to -3, which got us through key numbers of 7, 6, and to the key of 3 on a side my numbers liked in the first place. Pro bettor and my VSiN-contributing co-worker Brad Powers always puts out the results of lines that move 3+ points off the Circa openers, and if you’re making a habit of betting lines after they move 3+ points, you’re going to lose a lot of money in the long run. I’ll take my chances here.

Bet: San Jose State -3

Syracuse (-17.5) vs. Ohio

It seems like everyone is aboard the Syracuse hype train this summer after bringing in Fran Brown as head coach, Kyle McCord as QB and having one of the easiest Power 4 schedules in the country. All of those factors are certainly valid and reason for optimism in New York, but that doesn’t change the fact that this game opened Syracuse -13, which is precisely where TSI projected this game, and has been bet up as high as 18.5 at Circa, with the consensus being 17.5. Again, this is a huge line move through somewhat key numbers of 14 and 17, so I think the Bobcats are worth a bet here, even despite losing their star QB to Indiana this offseason. 

Bet: Ohio +17.5

Florida State (-16.5) vs. Boston College

I know, I know. We all saw Florida state get manhandled physically by Georgia Tech in Week 0, and they certainly got downgraded in my ratings as a result; however, this line opened Florida State -23 this summer and is down to -16.5 after one data point combined, while BC is breaking in a new head coach and has a QB that isn’t exactly known for lighting the world up with his arm. I think this is a massive overreaction to what could amount to Georgia Tech just being pretty decent this year. TSI projects FSU -18, so getting under the key of 17 is important here.

Bet: Florida State -16.5

Bonus FCS Bets:

Missouri State +15.5

Lehigh +33.5

Bucknell +33.5

Holy Cross/Rhode Island Over 54.5

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