Week 3 CFB Line Moves and Late-Week Bets from the T Shoe Index:

Monitoring line movement is crucial to betting in any sport or market. Understanding where the line has been and where it’s potentially going are key factors in determining what to bet and when to bet. If I like Team A +2.5 on Sunday afternoon when openers get released for college football, but I see that line going to +3 or higher at sharper books, why would I take the 2.5 when it appears there’s a good chance I’m going to get more value on this number later in the week? Conversely, if that same market starts to move to +2 or lower, I know I should probably fire on that bet immediately — understanding in both circumstances that my projected number is the baseline for all of my bets. I will write up these big movers that create value on the T Shoe Index projected CFB line each week on Thursdays (Fridays for NFL), and so far, they’re 4-2 ATS this season (67%).

Here are the Week 3 line moves that I like:

 

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Washington (-4.5; 56) vs Washington State

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (PEACOCK)

So this one isn’t technically a “game week line move,” but it is a notable line move overall. Within the last couple of weeks on the “Game of the Year” lookahead lines, this game was priced at Washington -8 or higher. What’s happened since then to warrant a 4+ point line move in favor of the Cougars? They beat Texas Tech (who went to OT and gave up 45 to Abilene Christian)? Washington suffocated Eastern Michigan? My projection on the game has gone UP since preseason, albeit by a half point, to Washington -5.5. If I were to remove any preseason projection (where I was low on Washington), I would make this game UW -12! This is a market move that doesn’t make sense to me, so I’m backing the Huskies in a pseudo-home game in Seattle.

Week 3 CFB Best Bet: Washington -4.5 (Play to -5.5)

Oregon (-16; 50) vs Oregon State

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (FOX)

What has happened to Dan Lanning’s Ducks over the first two weeks? They beat FCS Idaho by 10 (and only scored 24) and escaped Boise State by 3 last week. Meanwhile, Oregon State pitched a shutout against San Diego State. However, just a week ago, this line was Oregon -20+, and TSI still indicates it should be at the key number of 17. I certainly understand apprehension here, as I have some myself. But the point of this piece is to point out where there might be some market overreaction. It’s certainly possible the market is justified here, but it was worth mentioning. I’d lean Oregon, but I won’t bet it because removing preseason data from my projection would only make the line Oregon -3. Worth noting, for sure, but it’s only a lean for me out of principle.

Week 3 CFB Best Bet: Lean Oregon -16

TCU (+2.5; 61.5) vs UCF

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. (FOX)

Talk about a line move! TCU opened this week as 2.5-point favorites, and that has flipped on its head, as TCU is now a 2.5-point underdog at home to the Knights. This is another one of those instances where on-field play through 2 games warrants some kind of adjustment on these teams, but perhaps it’s gone too far. TSI agreed with the original move but projects TCU as a 1.5-point favorite, so the steam has gotten a bit out of control. In fairness, removing preseason data would change the TSI projection to UCF -6, but preseason data is extremely important (though not all-knowing, of course). Again, because of the mixed data, this is only a lean for me, as I like to see my formulas align before making a bet, but TCU is probably underpriced at this number.

Week 3 CFB Best Bet: Lean TCU +2.5

For more College Football Week 3 predictions, visit the exclusive College Football Week 3 Hub at VSiN.com.

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