Week 4 CFB Line Moves and Late-Week Bets from the T Shoe Index:

If you’ve been following this weekly piece, you know my goal here is to help fellow bettors understand the importance of line movement and when a line move becomes too steep to tail, and instead creates opportunity on the other side of the steam; however, I realized one thing I maybe didn’t emphasize enough was that just because a spread moves 3+ points doesn’t automatically mean there’s value on the other side, it just means it’s worth taking a look at — and comparing with my T Shoe Index, for good measure. This week, there’s a perfect encapsulation of this concept that I want to highlight, as well as some bets we can actually make, so let’s get to the Week 4 CFB line moves:

 

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Boise State (-41.5; 69) vs. Portland State

Saturday, 9:45 p.m. ET (FS1)

This line opened at DraftKings with Boise State as a 31.5-point favorite. That’s right, this line has moved TEN POINTS this week. On the surface, that looks like an obvious opportunity to fade the steam and back Portland State, right? My reluctance here is that when you look at the on-field data for these teams, my formula projects Boise State -44, despite my official TSI number (still heavily rooted in priors) being just 38.5. My point is, don’t blindly tail or fade any line movement, as the number is always going to be king in betting. Conversely, even though there’s still value on this 41.5 (if you think the on-field data is all that matters), betting 41.5 when 31.5 was available is borderline insanity. This is when you just have to say, “I missed the number. It happens.” and move on to the next one.

Week 4 CFB Best Bet: Advise to Stay Away 

Thanks for coming to my TED talk. Now that that’s out of the way, let’s find some plays I am going to add to the Week 4 card:

I mentioned last week how valuable it’s been to run those additional formulas I frequently reference, in addition to my TSI number, because underdogs that at least one formula has projected to win outright have gone 31-21 (60%), with 20 outright winners! Let’s see how we can leverage that to find some winners this week.

Cincinnati vs. Houston (+3.5; 46.5)

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. (FS1)

By my numbers, Houston has played the 8th most difficult schedule so far this season, while Cincinnati has played just the 97th. So, if you’re just looking at raw stats and thinking this game is a likely blowout in favor of Cincinnati, I think you might be in for a bad day on Saturday. This line opened with Cincinnati -5.5 at DraftKings, and sharps have tipped their hand and bet this down to 3.5, but not through the key number of 3 yet. TSI has Houston ranked 66th and Cincinnati 71st and projects the Bearcats as just a 1-point favorite this weekend; however, as stated before, TSI is still heavily weighted in priors at this juncture of the season, so that’s why I rely on the on-field data only to give me an inkling of where teams might be headed, and that data projects Houston as 3.5 point road favorites, with some formulas as high as Houston -6.5. So, bottom line, the opponent-adjusted, on-field data tells me Houston is the better team. I’m going to take the Cougars and the points here.

Week 4 CFB Best Bet: Houston +3.5 (Play to +3)

Coastal Carolina (+3.5; 55.5) vs. Virginia

Saturday, 2:00 p.m. ET (ESPN1)

While the Houston line move didn’t create value, it reinforced the early appetite was on our side while not going through a key number and making us take a bad play to try to back to the Cougs. This game, on the other hand, has seen the line go the other way, but creating more value by going from 2 to 3.5, a major edge gained despite it only being a point and a half. My calculations indicate that’s a 6.6% edge gained if you want to back Coastal here, as I do. Every single formula I run projects Coastal as a home favorite here, with TSI indicating the Chants should be a 1-point home favorite over a Virginia team the market has already shown a propensity to overrate (they pushed as a 1-point favorite against Wake Forest and got blown out as a 3-point favorite last week against Maryland). Coastal Carolina is 42nd in opponent-adjusted TSI offensive rating, while Virginia is 83rd. Both teams are outside the top 80 in TSI defensive rating. I don’t think Virginia has enough offensively to cover this number, and I think Coastal wins the game outright.

Week 4 CFB Best Bet: Coastal Carolina +3.5 (Play to +3)

For more College Football Week 4 predictions, visit the exclusive College Football Week 4 Hub at VSiN.com.

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