CFP Predictions:

The following are the CFP Predictions and best bets from VSiN hosts and contributors as originally published in our College Football Playoff Guide. Note that many of these lines have changed.

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CFP Best Bets

Matt Youmans

Oregon CFP Win Total Over 0.5 (-130)

The undisputed No. 1 seed in the bracket needs to win only one game, against either Ohio State or Tennessee at the Rose Bowl, to cash this bet. The Ducks are playing better now than they were in October, when they beat the Buckeyes 32-31. It’s far from a lock that Ohio State will beat the Volunteers to advance, but the Ducks definitely will take the field in Pasadena with the better quarterback. Dillon Gabriel, who passed for 341 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting with the Buckeyes, goes into the playoff completing 73 percent of his passes with 28 touchdowns and six interceptions. The Ducks averaged 47 points in their past two wins against Penn State and Washington, two good defensive teams. Dan Lanning is a bet-on coach. I’ll lay the low price on this DraftKings prop.

Notre Dame to Win the CFP (12-1)

It’s not going to be easy for the Fighting Irish to take out Indiana coach Curt Cignetti in the first round, but Notre Dame will likely grind it out and move on to face Georgia. The Irish could catch a break against the Bulldogs, who are expected to be without starting quarterback Carson Beck (elbow injury) in the Sugar Bowl. Beck’s backup, Gunner Stockton, is not much of a threat. Riley Leonard is a dual-threat quarterback who’s an athletic runner and erratic passer, but Leonard has shown improved accuracy during Notre Dame’s winning streak. Leonard is complemented by two outstanding running backs, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Since the stunning loss to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7, the Irish are 10-0 with an average winning margin of 30.7 points. Notre Dame ranks No. 3 in the nation in scoring defense (13.6 PPG). The Irish face a tough road, but they are strong on the offensive and defensive lines and have the talent to win the title. The odds on Notre Dame vary from +800 (DraftKings) to 10-1 (Circa) to 12-1 (Westgate SuperBook).

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Dave Tuley 

Indiana (+8) at Notre Dame

We get Friday Night Lights for the opening game of the expanded CFB Playoff, and an in-state rivalry to boot. Regular readers will remember I lost with Indiana versus Ohio State in their late regular-season matchup even though a lot of people were saying the Hoosiers should have sat starting QB Kurtis Rourke so as not to jeopardize their playoff chances in case they got blown out. I’m glad they did the right thing (and were not punished for it), but most people forget Indiana led 7-0 and then only trailed 14-7 at halftime before getting run over in the second half. But I think they proved they could play with top teams despite their relatively weak strength of schedule – and I still have the Buckeyes power-rated better than the Irish. And also remember Notre Dame lost to my alma mater, Northern Illinois (at home, by the way!), and I know the Huskies weren’t very good. I’ll take Rourke over Riley Leonard, but I’m not sold on the Notre Dame defense that gave up 557 yards (360 passing and 197 rushing) and five TDs in a 49-35 shootout against USC. The only common opponent was Purdue, with Notre Dame routing the Boilermakers 66-7 and Indiana doing one score better at 66-0. I’m not saying Indiana should be favored based off of just those two results, but I can argue that this line should be under a touchdown, which makes the +8 a play. I also have the Hoosiers advancing to the CFB Playoff quarterfinals in my bracket elsewhere in this VSiN Bowl Betting Guide, so give me +250 on the moneyline as well.

Clemson (+11) at Texas

The one bet I regret not making in Championship Week was Clemson +2.5 versus SMU in the ACC title game. I didn’t include it in my “Tuley’s Takes” column at VSiN.com, as my main argument would have been the Tigers have more of a winning culture recently than SMU and Dabo Swinney knows how to prepare his team for big games. I know that’s a square way of handicapping, so I couldn’t pull the trigger. But here we are in the CFB Playoff and I don’t want to make the same mistake. This Clemson team isn’t as strong as we’re used to seeing, but Swinney got the Tigers here despite losses to Georgia, Louisville and South Carolina by virtue of the 34-31 win over SMU. Texas has stayed in the Top 5 all season despite losing twice to Georgia. The Longhorns played the Bulldogs closer, but Clemson has the excuse of its loss being in the season-opener. If this line was closer to a touchdown (which is where I think it should be if being totally objective), I would probably pass, but I can’t resist getting Clemson plus double digits. The only double-digit wins by Texas over ranked teams were against Michigan and Oklahoma, and we all know how overrated those teams ended up being.

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Tyler Shoemaker

Clemson +11 at Texas

Certain coaches you’d like to back as an underdog, and no one hopes to be an underdog more than Dabo Swinney. I think the Tigers will (and probably should) feel slighted at the No. 12 spot, and will look to make a run. Texas has been very mortal this year and has not beaten a team with more than eight wins. T Shoe Index projects Texas -7, so I’ll take anything above a touchdown with the Tigers on the road.

Notre Dame to win the CFP +1100 

No, Tim Murray didn’t pay me to do this. Notre Dame has been flip-flopping with Ohio State as the top 2 teams in TSI for the last month. The Michigan performance from the Buckeyes helped lock up the Irish as the TSI #1 team heading into the CFP. I know, from a resume standpoint, the NIU loss is embarrassing. Care to check what they’ve done since then? They’ve demolished everyone in their path, and I think Indiana might be in for a long night in Round 1. I think these odds are way too long, so I’ll take a sprinkle on the Irish to hoist the trophy in a year where there’s no dominant team. 

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Matt Brown

Texas to Defeat Georgia (12/1), Texas to Defeat Notre Dame (18/1)

Sure, I could just bet Texas to win it all at (+360)…or, I can try and maximize my return by betting them to beat the two teams I think realistically end up in the championship against them. The Texas defense is very stout and the depth they have at every level could be a massive benefit in this new format. And for a team that didn’t get a bye, I like their path. Admittedly, I am a bit worried about a potential meeting with Ohio State. That said, hook ‘em.

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Jonathan Von Tobel

Tennessee (+8) & Under 47.5 at Ohio State

This is not a great matchup for Ohio State. The Buckeyes’ offensive line has been an issue for most of the season, and that figures to continue to be one when these two teams meet. According to reports, head coach Ryan Day will determine his starting trio along the interior in the weeks leading up to this playoff game. That is not great for Ohio State. Tennessee’s talent along the defensive line is mostly at edge with James Pearce Jr. and Joshua Joseph, but interior lineman Omarr Norman-Lott is actually second on the team in pressures (27). This group should be able to wreak havoc.

Speaking of pressure, there is quite a bit on the Buckeyes here, which can’t help their status as a favorite here. If there is any indication this offense is stuck in the mud early, the crowd could turn quickly against a head coach many believe should be on his way out due to failures against their biggest rival. I also don’t trust this offense from a play-calling perspective. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly famously set the Buckeyes up to fail with his gameplan against Michigan. We’ve also seen poor decision-making from Will Howard in big moments. It’s why I believe the Volunteers are live to not only stay inside the number, but also pull the upset.

Having said that, I do not believe Tennessee is perfect. The Volunteers are just 26th in EPA per play on the season and 39th per dropback. They averaged only 5.45 yards per play against conference foes, which was good for 11th in SEC play. That unit must now face an elite Ohio State defense at home. The Buckeyes led the country in opponent EPA per play in the regular season. They were second in yards per play allowed (4.1) and 27th in opponent third-down conversion rate (33.7%). I believe all of these factors can lead to an ugly, low-scoring game which gets me to Under the total as well.

Oregon Over 0.5 Wins (-130)

The conversations about Oregon’s draw are already getting old. The Ducks got a bye and must face one of Tennessee or Ohio State in the quarterfinals on a neutral. Both teams are extremely flawed. The Buckeyes have an offensive line that is extremely thin along the interior, a head coach that seems like he is going to be fired unless his team wins a national championship and they lost once to Oregon already. Meanwhile, the Volunteers have a flawed offense which was among the least efficient in SEC play in the regular season. 

Oregon would obviously be favored over both, and judging by the lookahead numbers, I would argue it should be favored by more. I’m a huge Dan Lanning guy, and believe the Ducks will be very prepared for whichever opponent emerges from the meeting between Tennessee and Ohio State, and I believe this is a very fair number to play. Especially as someone who believes the Volunteers have a higher chance of pulling the upset than the market does.

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Wes Reynolds

Indiana +7.5 at Notre Dame

The Hoosier State schools meet for the first time since 1991 as they will open the expanded College Football Playoff. Fortunately for the Hoosiers, they will not be facing Jerome Bettis and Irv Smith who led the Irish to a 49-27 victory as Notre Dame won the debut of its national TV contract with NBC. 

On the surface, this will look like a mismatch with ‘blue blood’ Notre Dame against an Indiana program that has only made five bowl game appearances in the last 30-plus years and has not even won a bowl game since 1991. Much has been made of the Indiana strength of schedule, or lack thereof, which ranks 67th. It is a fair criticism as the Hoosiers got the benefit of a schedule imbalance caused by conferences following the money from the television partners and expanding. Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s SOS was only 59th and the Fighting Irish have gone close to three months without being tested. While Notre Dame had four wins over Top 25 opponents at the time, only one (Army) was in the final Top 25. 

This is a battle of strength on strength when it comes to Notre Dame’s No. 10 rushing offense (224.8 YPG) versus Indiana’s No. 1 rushing defense (70.8 YPG). Indiana ranks No. 1 in EPA (expected points added) per rush since Week 8, including holding Ohio State to just 115 yards on 29 carries (39 of those yards were on a busted play as the Buckeyes were milking clock at the end). Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard (721 yards, 14 TD) will pose a different challenge for Indiana in stopping an opponent’s run game, but the Hoosiers senior-laden front seven should be up to the challenge. 

The moment was probably too big for Indiana at Ohio State three weeks ago as the Hoosiers made special teams mistakes and pass protection errors. Those should be cleaned up this time around. Although this is a much bigger stage, Indiana coach Curt Cignetti has a ton of experience in preparing for college football playoffs, especially on the road, from his tenures at IUP (Division II) and both at Elon and James Madison (FCS). The pressure and expectations are all on Notre Dame and not Indiana. The Hoosiers should be able to play the disrespect card enough to hang around for the duration in South Bend. 

Texas to Make CFP Semifinals (-200) 

Arguably the biggest beneficiary of Championship Weekend was Texas in losing to Georgia. The Longhorns get to host a team in Clemson that had to make a 56-yard field goal to win the ACC Championship Game just to get in the 12-team field. That same Clemson team could not run the ball on SMU (32 carries, 64 yards) and likely will not be able to do so against a Texas squad that ranks No. 7 in yards per rush (3.1) and No. 13 in rushing yards per game (106.7).

Next, the Longhorns, with a home win over Clemson (No. 16 in the final rankings), would get to face Arizona State in the Peach Bowl. The Sun Devils are the second-lowest rated team (No. 12) in the field. Texas looks to have the least arduous path to the CFP Semifinals.

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Josh Appelbaum

Notre Dame Over 1.5 CFP Wins (+160)

The Fighting Irish need to win two games in order to cash this bet, which offers a juicy plus-money payout. The first step is beating Indiana. Currently, Notre Dame is favored by 7.5 points against the Hoosiers. The Fighting Irish enjoy true home-field advantage, as the game will be played at Notre Dame Stadium. While Indiana will be eyeing an upset, Notre Dame should be fully prepared and one would expect they wouldn’t take Indiana lightly. Why? Because Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois 16-14 at home in Week 2, their only loss of the season. Since that time, they’re gone 10-0. That disappointing loss may be a blessing in disguise as it humbled the Irish and forced them to never overlook a future opponent. If Notre Dame beats Indiana, they will then face Georgia. The Bulldogs are coming off a big upset win over Texas in the SEC Championship game but paid a costly price, losing QB Carson Beck to an elbow injury. If Beck plays, will he be limited? And if he doesn’t, can you rely on the inexperienced backup Gunner Stockton, who would be making his first career start? Notre Dame has a big edge defensively over Georgia, allowing 13.5 PPG compared to 20.4 PPG. 

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Mitch Moss

Tennessee +7.5 at Ohio State

I told myself before the selection show that anything above a TD would be worth taking with the Volunteers. I don’t trust the head coach (Ryan Day), the offensive coordinator (Chip Kelly), or the QB (Will Howard) in Columbus. Plus, the offensive line might be the weakest link at this point with the injuries. Tennessee has first round NFL talent on the D-line, and will be a headache for Ohio State the entire game. I’m not expecting a ton of points between these two teams so I have to take the points with a live dog.

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Will Hill

Tennessee +7.5 at Ohio State

Surprised and delighted to be getting the hook here with the ‘Vols. Ohio St is banged up along the offensive line, culminating with the injury to center Seth McLaughlin, who got injured prior to the game against Indiana. Since that injury, Ohio State has struggled to run the ball. Ohio State ran it for just 3.3 yards per carry against Michigan, and just 4.0 YPC against Indiana. Tennessee presents a perhaps troubling matchup here, as they feature multiple future NFL players along the defensive line, including soon-to-be first-round pick James Pearce. Kirk Herbstreit made a good point on the selection show — how will Ohio State fans treat the home team if things get off to a slow start? Will the crowd turn? Last time we saw Tennessee, they racked up 7.5 yards per play and handled giant-killer Vandy on the road. I think Tennessee has the pieces to not only hang around here, but to pull off the upset.

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Paul Howard

Tennessee/Ohio State Under 47.5

Lock it in now and you can get off if the weather is okay. The Tennessee/Ohio State game is a dead Under with two teams who figure to be conservative early and run the ball. Will Howard was scared against Michigan and then Chip Kelly and Ryan Day coached one of the worst games you will ever see after the interception.

Notre Dame/Indiana Under 51, Notre Dame -7.5

Weather could be bad in South Bend with snow. Big difference between 30 and 15 degrees, and the latter is in play. Indiana could not do much on offense versus Michigan and Ohio State. They may not get 13 points in this game. A great story, yes — 100-1 to make the playoff! But they played the worst schedule from a Power 4 league I have ever seen.

The Irish are hot and the offense has been solid. The win over Army looks even better now and I think this could get ugly. When Ohio State brought pressure versus the Hoosiers, it was a jailbreak every single time. Freeman will unleash hell.

Penn State Over 1.5 Wins -170

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Zachary Cohen 

PARLAY: Penn State ML & Ohio State ML (-123) 

SMU got a brutal matchup in Penn State. Drew Allar is starting to look more and more like a future No. 1 draft pick, and he’ll get to work against a questionable Mustangs secondary. SMU just got lit up through the air by Cade Klubnik, and there’s no reason Allar can’t replicate that success — with a nice dose of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen mixed in. Also, Penn State’s defensive line should hold up nicely against the SMU running game, putting a lot on the shoulders of Kevin Jennings as a passer. In a cold-weather game, in a wild environment, I don’t love the sound of that. And Penn State is 15-2 straight-up as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points under James Franklin. I know Franklin is a punchline for his inability to win big games, but he doesn’t often lose games the Nittany Lions are expected to win. 

As far as the other game goes, I’m just not a big believer in the Volunteers offense. Say what you want about Chip Kelly’s offense, but Jim Knowles’ defense is the best in college football, by far. The Buckeyes have an EPA per play allowed of -0.157, which is the best mark in the nation. And the team is third in both Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.110) and Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.164). The latter is the big one in this matchup. Nico Iamaleava hasn’t shown that he can deliver on the road against great competition, and this Ohio State secondary is better than just great. And offensively, Ryan Day should learn from the loss to Michigan and prioritize the passing game against Tennessee. He has to realize that running against an elite Volunteers front won’t work. Also, let’s not forget that Day is 65-6 SU against non-Wolverines. 

Notre Dame Over 1.5 College Football Playoff Wins (+160) & Notre Dame To Win College Football Playoff (+900) 

I don’t love Notre Dame to cover the number against Indiana, but I’ll be surprised if the Fighting Irish don’t win outright. Notre Dame’s defense is just much better than Indiana’s, and I’m not sure the Hoosiers even have a better offense than the Irish. Indiana’s passing game was nonexistent in the loss to Ohio State, and that was the only time all year that we saw the Hoosiers against a real football team. And while you can say something similar about Notre Dame, we did see the Irish win on the road in College Station. Also, Riley Leonard killed Louisville, Navy and Army. Those are all better teams than Indiana faced throughout the year. 

If Notre Dame does get by Indiana, it’s also hard not to like the team to beat Georgia. The Bulldogs seemingly won’t have Carson Beck in the Sugar Bowl, so Marcus Freeman’s defense will really just need to be ready to stop the run. And Georgia struggles with mobile quarterbacks. 

Things are just shaping up nicely for Notre Dame to make a deep run. So, I’m going Over 1.5 on the Irish’s playoff win total, but I’m also sprinkling them to win the national title. I’m not sure I view Notre Dame as a good enough team to actually win it all, but I like the program’s chances of reaching the National Championship. At that point, I can do a lot with a +900 ticket. 

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Dustin Swedelson

Boise State Over 0.5 CFP Wins (+350) – DraftKings 

There’s a strong case to be made that Boise State got the ball rolling on what has now become a 12-team CFB Playoff. Year after year, we debated if they were as good as the nation’s top teams. So it’s apropos that in the first playoff format that gives the little guy a chance to compete, the Broncos get the first shot to hang with the big boys. By now, everyone knows what Ashton Jeanty brings to the table after going for 2,497 rush yards, 7.3 yards per carry and scoring 30 total touchdowns. Jeanty gives this team a puncher’s chance to make some noise this year. He ran for 192 yards and three scores against Oregon’s 35th-ranked run defense in Week 2, he won’t be scared facing a team from the Power Four. The draw also worked out favorably with two potential opponents with major flaws. 

First, Penn State head coach James Franklin, has never stepped up in a big game in his life. Now he could have to take on a rested Boise State team in Round 2. Then the other option, a SMU team that walked through a soft ACC schedule. Let’s also factor in what this game means to Boise State as a program. They are going to pull out all of the stops to maximize this opportunity. For over 20 years, the Broncos wanted a chance to play for a championship. Now they’re getting it. I can’t guarantee we get a marriage proposal to a cheerleader, but it does feel like running the Statue of Liberty would just be scratching the surface of what’s in Spencer Danielson’s bag for this game. 

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Steve Makinen

CFP Futures Wager: Texas Over 1.5 Playoff Wins -205

Texas had two losses, but one Kryptonite, if you will, this season, and that was against the physicality and talent level of Georgia’s front lines, more so the Bulldogs defense. Other than the surprise close game against a very enthusiastic Vanderbilt team, no one really matched up with the Longhorns enough to give them a game. I don’t see either Clemson or Arizona State doing that, and my numbers project double-digit lines for both games. In fact, my Effective Strength indicators show Texas 13.3 points better than Clemson and 12.1 better than ASU. I know a lot of people seem to be down on HC Steve Sarkisian’s team right now, especially QB Quinn Ewers, but with Georgia’s starting QB down and Texas in a good place to make a deep run here, I think a semifinal appearance is the least we should expect. I had the Longhorns as my champion at the outset of the year. I think the chances for that are just as good now. 

Tennessee +7.5 at Ohio State

I think if you look at Ohio State’s schedule this season, the team that Tennessee compares most to in terms of strength, speed, athleticism would have to be Oregon. The Buckeyes struggled with that speed on both sides of the ball. I’ve actually noticed QB Will Howard impacted most when he plays a very fast and athletic defense. He becomes very conservative, unlike past great Buckeyes QBs. I have had the Vols and Buckeyes at similar strength numbers pretty much all season. Currently, my Effective Strength indicators show these teams separated by three points, and my recent ratings show just 1.1 points. I’m not sure it’s fair for oddsmakers to be hanging such a lofty number on a game in which the teams are both highly-rated like this, particularly since OSU’s offense only scored 27.5 PPG in the second half of the season. If you recall, the Tennessee offense behind QB Nico Iamaleava got red hot out of the gate, scoring 191 points in its first three games. It is that capable, and in the final two games started to show some of that potential again. I wouldn’t pick this spread if I didn’t think UT had a chance to compete and/or win.

Gasparilla Bowl – Florida -12.5 vs. Tulane

I was one of the few people out there that forecasted a better season for Florida in 2024 than the oddsmakers were. The Gators had a win total prop of 4.5 at the outset. However, in my offseason studies, I found that HC Billy Napier had made some real nice scores on the recruiting/transfer trail and I felt that Year 3 could be the time that he was able to put it together. He sort of did, even battling through injury problems. His team played with real heart too, beating LSU and Ole Miss in back-to-back weeks to reach this point. The Gators even clobbered a downtrodden FSU team in the season finale in what could easily have been a trap game. For the Gasparilla Bowl, I look for a bigger than usual coming out party for QB DJ Lagway, the obvious future at the key position for Napier. The opponent is a Tulane team that embarrassed itself in back-to-back weeks to end the season, including losing the AAC title game to Army 35-14. The Green Wave will also be without their star QB Darian Mensah, who left for the transfer portal. Florida has a chance to prove it is back and will take this one seriously.

Pop-Tarts Bowl – Miami -3.5 vs. Iowa State

Apparently it was on a Snapchat session with Shadeur Sanders of Colorado that Miami QB Cam Ward announced his intentions to play in the Pop-Tarts Bowl game against Iowa State, and that he intends to put on a show. Obviously, that is good news for the Hurricanes and should make them as close to normal as we’ve watched them for the ’24 season. Quite frankly, it’s been a harrowing season for the ‘Canes and the people that have backed them on multiple occasions this season. However, at one point, this was arguably one of the best teams in the country, for sure on offense. My end of season Effective Strength indicators showed them with a rating of +34.1, good for No. 10 in the country. My power ratings had them at 59.5. Interestingly, on both ratings, Iowa State is about seven points worse. The line for this bowl game doesn’t reflect that. Typically, I am a fan of backing Iowa State in bowl games, while fading Miami, as ISU under HC Matt Campbell has always shown a motivated interest, quite the opposite for The U. However, this feels different. The Cyclones were manhandled by Arizona State in the Big 12 title game, and Ward’s commitment is “different” for the Hurricanes, giving them a significant motivational boost. ISU is probably going to have to score in the high 30’s to cover. I don’t see it.

Bahamas Bowl – Buffalo +2.5 vs. Liberty

One team came together to have a much different season than was expected. The other underachieved badly in what was expected to be a championship type of season. It has since lost its quarterback and top offensive lineman to the transfer portal. The latter team is favored. Guess which way I’m leaning, being a big “bowl motivation” type of bettor? Correct…Buffalo. The Bulls won eight games this year when they were supposed to win 5.5 according to the oddsmakers. The Flames won the same amount when they were pegged to win 10.5. This coming against what was the country’s easiest schedule. New head coach Pete Lembo had his Buffalo team galvanized quickly and they won three games in upset fashion. They get a Liberty team without QB Kaidon Salter after he started every game for his team over the last two years, putting up massive numbers. Too much negative material to expect a big game from HC Jamey Chadwell’s team.

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Stormy Buonantony

Clemson +11.5 at Texas 

Neither of these teams have been great ATS (they’re both 2-5 covering the number in their last seven games), but I don’t feel like this is a great draw for Texas and I’m getting double digits with the Tigers. Is there anything Dabo Swinney thrives on more than doubt? This group will be extremely motivated as a big underdog and, if they play to their ability, can keep this within one score if not challenge for a win in the fourth quarter. We saw the Longhorns make a ton of mistakes against Georgia in the SEC title game: Drops, interceptions, missed FGs, penalties, etc. and couldn’t do enough defensively to win against a backup QB at the end of the game. Those are things that could be an edge for the Tigers, who rank 23rd in penalties to Texas 93rd as well as +16 in turnover differential to the Longhorns’ +6. Yes, Phil Mafah’s been playing hurt at RB, but he will have added time to rest up. And, as someone who was a noted Cade Klubnik hater entering the season, he’s proved me wrong more often than not this season. The defense isn’t all-time great, but good enough to frustrate a Texas offense that’s been far from lethal with Quinn Ewers. They’ve scored 20 or fewer points in three of their last four games. Give me +11.5 with Clemson in what’s likely a lower scoring game. I also don’t hate a 1st H +6.5 either after the hot start we saw in the ACC title game versus SMU and the 7-7 1st half against South Carolina. 

Tennessee +7.5 at Ohio State

This is probably the most attractive game of the First Round and should be a great exclamation point to the first weekend of the inaugural expanded playoff! I was hoping this number would continue to grow but while we’re on the right side of a TD getting points, I’m taking it. How will Ohio State rebound after an ugly loss to Michigan (with an even uglier game plan)? How much confidence do we have in Ryan Day and Will Howard in a big moment? I’m not sure. Adding to the fact that their ability to run the ball depends on how their patchwork OL is feeling any given day, I say that’s an advantage for the Vols and an extremely tough and disruptive defensive front. The Vols meanwhile love to run the football and the Ohio State DL is hit or miss. Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava — while he’s had some young moments and inconsistencies this season — has the talent to potentially replicate some of what Oregon did to Ohio State earlier this season. The Buckeyes defense is legit and weather may be a factor so points will be at a premium on both sides. Give me +7.5. 

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Grace Remington

TEXAS/CLEMSON UNDER 51.5

I played this number myself and gave it out on our CFB Reaction Show at Under 53.5 on Sunday. I think it’s still playable, as 51 is the second-most key number for CFB totals, but I wouldn’t go below that.

It’s hard to trust this inefficient Texas offense at the moment. I do wonder if Quinn Ewers’ collarbone injury from earlier in his collegiate career and the abdominal injury this season continue to impact his zip on the ball.

Nick Saban summed it up well during the SEC Championship Game: if Steve Sarkisian stays ahead of schedule, he’s unstoppable. The only way to stop him is to get his team behind the sticks. Well, guess who had 15 tackles for loss in that title game? Georgia. The Bulldogs also had six sacks, and four of them came in UGA territory on first down.

Texas had a chance to put away the game in the first half, yet their season-long red-zone issues appeared once again. Drives of 48, 64, 56 and 51 yards ended in just six points. On the season, the Longhorns rank 93rd in red-zone conversions. On the other side, the Texas defense is one of the best, ranking 22nd nationally in success rate allowed, plus Top-10 in sacks, TFLs and forced fumbles.

Texas also does not allow explosive plays, and Clemson needs them, especially with Phil Mafah’s production declining. Dabo Swinney admitted before the ACC Championship Game that the RB has been working through “a little injury.” Mafah has averaged 2.2 yards per carry in his last three games against Power 4 opponents and only toted the ball three times against the Citadel. He had averaged 7.0 yards per carry in the first nine games of the season.

SMU 1Q ML +145 VS PENN STATE

When I first gave this play out on our Sunday reaction show, the number was SMU 1Q ML +170. Then the first quarter markets came off the books for a few days, and now the ML is back at a lower number. Bummer, but it’s still a fun play.

For whatever reason, Penn State doesn’t wake up until the second quarter of games. It ranks 66th nationally in 1Q scoring and third in 2Q scoring. SMU runs its offense at a lightning-fast pace that ranks 19th nationally. It goes even faster in road games, using just 22.8 seconds of clock per play.

Penn State runs its offense at a slow tempo. So, if SMU gets one stop — and its defensive line is capable of doing so — the Ponies would have at least two possessions in this quarter to reach the ML win.

Plus, if SMU wins the coin toss, they will likely choose to keep the ball. Says head coach Rhett Lashlee: “There’s a lot of stats out there about deferring and taking the ball, all those things. I’m a big believer in taking the ball because it gives you a chance to score first.”

SMU to score first +135 is also a play.

TENNESSEE/OHIO STATE UNDER 47.5

The playoff format change is the only reason Ryan Day has another opportunity to save his job. How does he respond to the pressure?

Day and OC Chip Kelly don’t seem to trust QB Will Howard in the big moments. Against Michigan, only 10 of Howard’s 33 pass attempts were thrown beyond 10 air yards, despite having an elite receiving corps, while facing a Wolverines secondary plagued with injuries.

Defensively, they struggled to stop Michigan’s rushing attack. That will be a problem against this Tennessee offense that runs the ball at a 60.8% rate, the 11th-highest run rate in the country. Dylan Sampson’s 124 yards per game is eighth-best among all running backs and has helped the Vols to a 12th-ranked rushing success rate. 

Nico Iamaleava hasn’t been consistent, but not all the offensive problems are his fault, and he has the raw talent to put up numbers like Dillon Gabriel did in OSU’s loss to Oregon. That being said, poor winter weather may make it difficult for the SoCal product to get going in Columbus.

Tennessee’s defensive front is one of the best in the nation and is the reason I liked the Vols preseason to make a playoff run. The Vols rank fourth nationally in red-zone touchdown conversions allowed and ninth in tackles for loss. 

Ohio State is capable of moving the ball downfield, but it will be difficult with a re-shuffled offensive line that Day apparently isn’t finalizing until the week of the game.

I won’t be surprised if Tennessee beats Ohio State outright, but because of the Vols’ own offensive struggles, I’d rather play the Under.

NOTRE DAME TO MAKE SEMIFINALS +180

This is simply a play on the number.

Notre Dame is -280 on the ML to beat Indiana in the first round. The lookahead line for the following quarterfinal matchup is Notre Dame -2.5 versus Georgia, which converts to ND -148 on the ML.

When you parlay the two Notre Dame moneylines, you get odds of +127. So, if you believe Notre Dame can win two straight games, play the Irish in this futures market instead as it gives us a 7% edge.

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Mike Somich

Georgia to win the Playoff +450

Do I think that Georgia is the best team in the country? No, they are not. But, man, the path is too good to pass up at this price. The other two favorites, Oregon and Texas are lost on the other side of the bracket. Georgia also drew an incredible path. Notre Dame, Indiana, SMU and Penn State are three of the weaker four non-bye teams. With Boise State sitting in the bye across Georgia’s, the toughest projected game would be Round 2 versus Notre Dame, where I have them as slight favorites.

Once in the final, you have the option on how to monetize the ticket. If the match up is positive for Georgia, you can roll with +450 versus a moneyline that will not be over +200. If not, you can simply play back the other side and book a profit.

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Tim Murray

Peach Bowl Lookahead Line: Texas -11.5 vs. Arizona State

I see a bunch of my colleagues are betting Texas Over 1.5 CFP wins at -205, which is certainly an intriguing angle to bet Texas this postseason. I am looking at a potential matchup in the Peach Bowl against Arizona State instead. Give credit where credit is due. The Sun Devils were picked to finish in last place of the Big 12 this year. Kenny Dillingham’s squad not only finished the season 11-2 straight up, but they also went 11-2 ATS. The betting market bet against Arizona State in the Big 12 championship, too. The Sun Devils closed as a 1.5-point underdog and thoroughly dominated Iowa State, 45-19. A matchup against Texas, however, would be rough. The Sun Devils will be without leading WR Jordyn Tyson (75 receptions, 1101 yards, 10 TD). Tyson did not play in the Big 12 Championship game, but RB Cam Skattebo carried the load. Skattebo rushed for 170 yards against the Cyclones. On the season, Skattebo averaged 6.0 yards per carry. Texas’ defense front will not allow Skattebo to take over the game. The Longhorns held opponents to just 3.11 yards per carry this season. Without the threat of Tyson, I would expect Texas to dominate up front and run away with the Peach Bowl against Arizona St. 

Check your house rules but at DraftKings Sportsbook, a lookahead bet is voided if the matchup does not occur. Therefore, if Clemson upset Texas, a Texas -11.5 over Arizona State bet would be refunded. 

ReliaQuest Bowl: Michigan +11.5 vs Alabama

Entering Championship weekend, Alabama was in the College Football Playoff, but then SMU lost by three to Clemson in the ACC Championship and the Tide were bounced from the field. Now, Alabama needs to turn their focus to a “low-level” bowl game against Michigan. The Wolverines wrapped up the regular season beating Ohio State on the road as a 19.5-point underdog. The momentum is high for Michigan under first year head coach Sherrone Moore and I would imagine they will be motivated to play Alabama down in Tampa. 

Opt-outs will be something to keep a close eye on. The Wolverines faced Ohio State without CB Will Johnson and TE Colston Loveland. I would be surprised if either Johnson or Loveland played against Alabama. The bigger question is will Alabama QB Jalen Milroe play? My assumption would be that Milroe does not play in the bowl game and heads to the NFL. Even if Milroe does play, I have to question the motivation of the Crimson Tide in this spot against Michigan. Catching double digits seems like a good spot to grab one of the best defensive teams in the country.

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Adam Burke

Penn State -8.5 vs. SMU

Rhett Lashlee did a phenomenal job adjusting to a slow start against Clemson, as the Mustangs battled back and made it enough of a game to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff. They’re stepping up in class here with a road game at Penn State.

I am as much a hater of “Big Game James” Franklin as anybody, but this isn’t Ohio State, Michigan, or any of the other Top 5 teams he’s lost against. This is a SMU team that hasn’t played anybody as good as Penn State and will have major problems with the Nittany Lions’ physicality. 

The best development for Penn State against Oregon was that OC Andy Kotelnicki got the running game going. The Nittany Lions gashed the Ducks for 8.7 yards per pop. Kaytron Allen had 64 rushing yards in his final three regular season games combined. Nicholas Singleton tied his longest rush of the year, which came against Bowling Green in Week 2, and both guys had over 100 yards.

Drew Allar also looked like the highly-touted recruit we thought he’d be and he’s got a lot of money on the line here in the College Football Playoff in terms of his draft positioning. SMU’s lackluster strength of schedule is a factor here and they are -7 in turnover margin since the start of October and only have seven takeaways in that span after starting the season with 14 in their first five games.

Clemson +11 at Texas

Clemson feels a lot like that 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament that many people feel doesn’t belong in the Dance and then goes on a run after winning the play-in game. We’ll see if the Tigers can live up to that notion, but I think they’ll at least give Texas a game down in Austin.

Cade Klubnik is an experienced dude who takes care of the football and can extend plays with his legs. Klubnik posted a 33/5 TD/INT ratio with over 3,300 passing yards and added 458 on the ground for good measure. His runs are purposeful and rarely improvised, perhaps giving a little bit of pause to a monstrous Texas front four on defense. He also has four reliable pass-catchers, including possession guy Antonio Williams and the freakishly athletic freshman Bryant Wesco.

Against better defenses, Quinn Ewers struggled. He did play well in Week 2 against Michigan, but had a 3/3 TD/INT ratio against Georgia with a completion rate in the 58.5% range. He was pedestrian against Texas A&M late in the year. I think he was lucky he didn’t face South Carolina, Ole Miss, or Tennessee’s front, otherwise we’d really have some data points to harp on.

Clemson has a great chance to make this one uncomfortable and win the turnover battle in an effort to pull the upset as a team that will not be overwhelmed in the slightest by the moment.

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