Alabama vs. Indiana
On Thursday, January 1, the Alabama Crimson Tide and Indiana Hoosiers meet in the Rose Bowl. This is part of the College Football Playoff, as the winner here will take on the winner between the Oregon Ducks and Texas Tech Red Raiders. With that in mind, this is a massive football game that will be played in one of the greatest venues in sports. This is also a meeting between Curt Cignetti and a team he used to coach for, as he was an assistant for the Tide from 2007 to 2011. It’ll be interesting to see if he feels a certain type of way about Alabama hiring Kalen DeBoer over him, leading to an extra edge from Indiana. But at the same time, the Tide do have more overall talent on their roster, so this is an opportunity for DeBoer to get Alabama back in the conversation at the top of the college football world. Let’s dive into how it might go down in our Alabama vs. Indiana betting preview.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of December 29, 3:15 pm ET; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Rose Bowl: Alabama vs. Indiana (-7, 48.5)
Thursday, January 1 at 4:00 pm ET (ESPN)
For the second year in a row, the Hoosiers are the story of the college football season. Last year, in Cignetti’s first in Bloomington, Indiana went to the College Football Playoff after going 11-1 in the regular season. That team lost to Notre Dame in the first round of the event, finishing 11-2 on the year. However, that team’s success largely felt like a combination of an easy schedule and a great coaching job by Cignetti. The talent wasn’t quite there. This year’s group is different. That’s why the Hoosiers enter this game at 13-0 with wins over Oregon and Ohio State. The team also has the Heisman Trophy winner in Fernando Mendoza.
There’s just no ceiling for this Indiana team anymore, but it very much felt like there was one last season. This season, the Hoosiers are first in the nation in EPA per play (0.293) and fourth in EPA per play allowed (-0.261), according to CFB Graphs. They have the statistical profile of a national title winner.
CFB Graphs also happens to love Indiana in this meeting with Alabama. The projected score there is Hoosiers 28.79, Crimson Tide 19.87. However, our analytics guru Steve Makinen has it a lot closer. Our projected score on the VSiN matchup page is Indiana 26.5, Alabama 25. That’s actually a little more in line with how I think this one will play out.
While I’m a little nervous about Indiana’s ability to execute at a high level week in and week out, I do think Alabama has a pretty significant edge in talent over Indiana when looking at the depth charts. And where the Tide differ from some of the other teams the Hoosiers have defeated is that they do have extremely bright coaches and they’re a little more experienced at the quarterback position. This might be Ty Simpson’s first year under center, but he has been around the block. We have also seen Simpson rise to the occasion in big games this year.
In a four-game stretch in which Alabama beat Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee, Simpson threw for 253 or more yards in three of the games. He also totaled nine touchdowns and only one interception in that stretch. Simpson also came up with the goods against Oklahoma last game, throwing for two touchdowns and no picks after a very slow start to the game. He also did that on the road.
I just don’t think you can rule out the possibility of the Tide’s offense looking a little sharper than the Hoosiers. I’m a huge fan of the play-calling of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, and Alabama has had a good amount of time to prepare for this meeting with Indiana.
It’s also hard not to like that Alabama is ninth in the nation in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.220). That means this passing defense could be well equipped to go up against Mendoza and an Indiana offense that is second in the nation in Dropback EPA per play (0.353).
The Crimson Tide have also been awesome as an underdog with DeBoer on the sidelines. They’re 2-0 both straight-up and against the spread in that role since he took over, and DeBoer is 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS as an underdog in his career. On top of that, Alabama is 5-1 both SU and ATS off a bye week under DeBoer, so this team has done well with extra time to rest and prepare. It’s also worth mentioning that the Tide are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS when facing teams that average at least 5.9 yards per play with DeBoer as head coach.
Alabama vs. Indiana Rose Bowl Prediction
For as good as Indiana can be, it feels like Alabama is capable of hanging around if the team doesn’t turn in a complete dud. And while others have been quick to trash DeBoer as a head coach, it wasn’t long ago that he was being treated exactly like Cignetti. DeBoer took over a Washington team that went 4-8 in 2021 and turned the Huskies into an 11-win team in one season. He then got Washington to the national championship game in 2023, leading the Huskies to a 14-1 season. This is a guy that can flat-out coach, making it hard to rule out Alabama in a game in which the team has more future NFL contributors. I’m grabbing the points and the moneyline here. I also wouldn’t sleep on the fact that this could be something of a letdown spot for Indiana. I know everybody thinks Cignetti is unflappable, but what about the players? Is it not possible that they’ll underperform a bit after winning a Big Ten Championship Game against an Ohio State team that nobody believed they’d beat?
Bet: Alabama +7.5 (-115 – 2 units) & Alabama ML (+210 – 0.5 units)
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the college football games on our Pro Picks Page.
See our Bowl Game Betting Hub for more previews and predictions.
