Miami vs. Ohio State
With the Miami Hurricanes having defeated the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field, we’ll now see Mario Cristobal’s team face the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic in Arlington, Texas. This is a quarterfinal matchup for the College Football Playoffs, and the winner of this one will take on the winner of a meeting between the Ole Miss Rebels and Georgia Bulldogs. With that in mind, we’re in the pressure cooker of the 2025 college football season, and this is a game that will feature all kinds of talent on the field. Keep reading for our thoughts on Miami vs. Ohio State.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of December 28, 12:30 pm ET; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Miami vs. Ohio State (-9.5, 42.5)
Wednesday, December 31 at 7:30 pm ET (ESPN)
Miami was a small underdog against Texas A&M in the first round of the College Football Playoff, but the Hurricanes ended up emerging victorious in a 10-3 slugfest. Miami might have won a little easier if not for Malachi Toney, one of the best players in the country, having a nightmare of a day. Toney got tripped up on a weak tackle on a punt return, going down on a play in which he should have probably scored. He also lost a costly fumble on another play. Fortunately for the Hurricanes, they were able to survive. And it’s highly unlikely Toney will struggle like that again. Unfortunately for Miami, there’s an angry Ohio State team waiting.
Much like last season — when the Buckeyes won the national title — Ohio State comes into the CFP off a loss. Ryan Day’s team came up short in a meeting with Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game, and the coach might be able to use that as motivation for his insanely talented squad. The Buckeyes are actually 2-0 against the spread under Day when coming off a game in which they scored 14 or fewer points. That means Day, who is a very sharp offensive mind, could have his offense ready to pounce here.
There’s also some other coaching trends that really favor Ohio State. Under Day, the Buckeyes are 8-4 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 25-13-2 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages of 75% or higher. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are 1-3 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points under Cristobal. They’re also 0-4 ATS when coming off an upset win as an underdog, 3-10 ATS off a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better, and 3-7 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages of 75% or higher. Those trends show that Day is a little better in the big ones. Also, while Ohio State is likely to bounce back after a poor performance, Miami could be due for a letdown after a big win.
However, it is important to note that the on-field stuff doesn’t look as bad for the Hurricanes. CFB Graphs has Miami as the No. 7 team in the country in EPA margin (0.359), while Ohio State is first (0.561). The Buckeyes are a bit better on offense (0.154 vs. 0.091) and defense (-0.290 vs. -0.185), but the difference might not be worthy of a spread of 9 or 9.5. In fact, CFB Graphs has a projected final score of Ohio State 27.05, Miami 19.31. Our analytics guru Steve Makinen also has this game a little tighter than the spread. He has Ohio State 24.7, Miami 18.6.
Quarterback play is going to be absolutely crucial here. Carson Beck has played in a lot of big games in his career, and he has the arm talent to turn in a big performance against anyone when he’s on. However, he can also be extremely mistake-prone, making it hard to trust him. He’s also going up against an elite defensive mind in Matt Patricia, and he’s calling shots for a defense that is loaded with future NFL players. So, there’s definitely a chance Patricia forces Beck to play a terrible game. Meanwhile, Julian Sayin, who comes into this game having thrown for 3,323 yards with 31 touchdowns and six picks, was awesome all season for the Buckeyes. However, he didn’t look the same in the Big Ten Championship Game, and Ohio State scored only 10 points because of it. Which version of the talented sophomore will we see here?
This game is genuinely very difficult to call when looking at the side. And while I do lean Under — these are two good defenses and I’m not sure either passing game will truly get going — the number is a little low when talking about all of Miami’s skill-position talent and Ohio State having Jeremiah Smith and Bo Jackson.
Miami vs. Ohio State Cotton Bowl Prediction
It’s rare that I completely sit out a big game, but this is a tough one to call. When looking at the numbers and the talent on these rosters, it feels like this line is a little disrespectful to the Hurricanes. However, Cristobal’s history as a bad decision-maker might make his team worthy of that disrespect. Meanwhile, Day has been pretty damn good in big games — outside of the ones against Michigan.
Overall, while I lean towards taking the points with the Hurricanes, I don’t have enough trust in Cristobal to actually fire away. If anything, I might end up using Ohio State moneyline in a parlay.
Lean: Miami +9.5 (-108)
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