Oregon vs. Indiana
On Friday, January 9, the Oregon Ducks and Indiana Hoosiers will battle for a spot in the College Football Playoff National Championship when they clash in the Peach Bowl. This semifinal matchup will take place in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, and it’s a rematch of a game we saw in October. That one, played in Eugene, ended with Indiana earning a 30-20 road win. Will Oregon find a way to even the score? Or will moving to a neutral field only give Curt Cignetti’s team a bigger advantage? Keep reading for our betting preview and predictions for Oregon vs. Indiana.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of January 4, 5:45 pm ET; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Peach Bowl: Oregon vs. Indiana (-4, 46.5)
Friday, January 9 at 7:30 pm ET (ESPN)
Back on October 11, Oregon was a 7-point home favorite against Indiana, but Cignetti’s team ended up winning by 10. It wasn’t the prettiest offensive performance for Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza and the Indiana offense. Mendoza threw for only 215 yards with a touchdown and a pick. The Hoosiers also rushed for only 3.0 yards per carry in the game. However, Indiana’s defense picked Dante Moore off twice. The Hoosiers also held the Ducks to 2.7 yards per carry, making the Oregon offensive line look slow and weak.
Heading into this rematch — which will have much higher stakes — many will point to the fact that it’s difficult to beat the same team twice. Cignetti even noted that himself. However, losing home-field advantage won’t make things any easier on the Ducks. Plus, it’s hard not to view the Hoosiers as a significantly better team.
When looking at CFB Graphs, Indiana’s statistical profile is just a little sharper. The Hoosiers are first in the nation in EPA per play (0.293) and fourth in EPA per play allowed (-0.261). Meanwhile, the Ducks are sixth in EPA per play (0.241) and fifth in EPA per play allowed (-0.200). The Hoosiers are also 17th in the country in Net Field Position (3.65), while the Ducks are 23rd (2.82). Indiana is also a little stronger when looking at Early Down EPA per play on both sides of the ball, plus the Hoosiers are much more reliable converting on third and fourth downs on offense.
The Hoosiers are also getting stronger and stronger the further we get into this season. Indiana took out Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. Many believed that Buckeyes team was the best in college football heading into the postseason, then the Hoosiers backed it up with a 38-3 beatdown of the Crimson Tide.
It’s just clear that Cignetti and his staff are fantastic when it comes to getting the players prepared, and nobody on this Hoosiers team is scared of the moment. All of these guys are capable of making plays without straying from the game plan. And even if things are close late in this game, you’d have to think that Mendoza will come up with the goods — as he has whenever Indiana has needed him.
Dan Lanning has also struggled a bit in these big games before, going 0-2 both straight-up and against the spread as a neutral-field underdog in his time with Oregon. Meanwhile, Indiana is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points under Cignetti.
Oregon vs. Indiana Peach Bowl Prediction
I made the mistake of backing Alabama in last week’s game, but I won’t be going against Indiana again. This Hoosiers team is extremely well coached, but they also have the talent to play with anyone in the country. That includes a Ducks team that is loaded with high-level recruits. I like Indiana to build on what the team did to Oregon in Autzen Stadium.
Bet: Indiana -3.5 (-110)
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