Clemson vs. Louisville
By the time Clemson vs. Louisville kicks off on Friday, it will be the seventh game of Week 12. Five MACtion games and a standalone Sun Belt game have given us plenty to watch this week, but now we’re into Power Four conference action, as the ACC and Big Ten take center stage on November 14. Minnesota vs. Oregon is the late game and the less compelling of the two based on the odds, but that game will still get a mention following talk of the Tigers and Cardinals.
Clemson vs. Louisville would have meant a lot more had the Cardinals not choked as a big favorite against Cal, given that the ACC CFP berth is about as wide-open as it gets, but now this game just has some bowl game implications.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 12, 2:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 12 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Clemson vs. Louisville (-3, 51)
7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
It would take a pretty big line move for Clemson to become the favorite. If this holds, it will be the first time Louisville has been favored over Clemson since 2016. The teams have played every year except for 2020 and 2023 in that span, so it has been a while. And even then, Louisville predominantly closed a one-point favorite. The first meeting between these two teams was in 2014, so this is just the second time in 10 meetings for Louisville to be favored and their biggest favorite role.
That certainly speaks to what has transpired with the Tigers this season. They are under .500 after nine games for the first time since 2008. They are at risk of missing a bowl game for the first time since 2004. Furman and rival South Carolina await after this, so 6-6 or even 7-5 is still very much possible, but they need to get through this week before worrying about anything else.
The Cardinals have to shake off last week’s gut-wrenching loss, as it didn’t just drop them to 7-2, it made the path to winning the ACC a whole lot harder. A lot of things can still happen, but the head-to-head loss against Virginia looms large as well. Louisville beat Clemson for the first time ever last season and did so in the SC version of Death Valley, so they also have a team in search of revenge to contend with this week.
What has gone wrong for Clemson this season? Where do we begin? Per CFB Graphs, this team is 70th in EPA/play on offense and 61st in EPA/play on defense. Those are not numbers we would expect from one of the nation’s most consistent programs, and especially not one with a very experienced returning QB in Cade Klubnik. To be honest, he hasn’t been the problem. His 14 TDs are a pretty low output and he did miss a game, but he’s completed 68% of his throws and only has five interceptions with 10 sacks taken. An anemic running game with 3.8 yards per carry hasn’t helped.
The defense hasn’t set the offense up for success with just 10 takeaways and a lot of problems on early downs. The Tigers are actually tied for 20th in third down defense, but they’ve consistently given up too many yards to help teams stay on schedule. However, this is still a defense that ranks 30th in points per drive allowed. A lot of bending, but not much completely breaking.
Recently, the defense has really struggled, allowing over six yards per play in two November games. SMU also had over 400 yards against them in their Oct. 18 matchup prior to the bye week. Louisville’s offense has been disappointing this season, as CFB Graphs has them 11th in average starting field position, but just 74th in points per drive. Alleged QB whisperer Jeff Brohm hasn’t gotten much out of USC transfer Miller Moss, who has just an 11/7 TD/INT ratio despite two potential NFL WR in Chris Bell and Caullin Lacy.
Isaac Brown has ripped off 8.6 yards per carry and backup RB Keyjuan Brown has 6.9, so Louisville has run the football with great success. Unfortunately, Moss has been a big disappointment. The 7-2 record in spite of Moss is a testament to the running game and also a defense that is 17th in EPA/play and 11th in points per drive against.
I’m thinking Clemson +3 and the Under in this one. The Tigers have the better QB and are a top-30 run defense. Louisville is a top-25 run defense and has been good against the pass, but they have faced very few potent passing offenses this season. These are two above average red zone defenses and both are above average on third down. That should keep this one low-scoring, but I have more trust in Klubnik over Moss. These are straight bets, not a parlay.
Picks: Clemson +3; Under 51
Other Friday Game
Minnesota at Oregon (-25, 44): FOX draws this 9 p.m. kickoff at Autzen, as Minnesota has been bet against yet again this week. This is several weeks in a row now that the Golden Gophers have been disrespected by bettors. They are 6-3, but have been outgained on a per-play basis (-0.11) this season. They’ve been outgained by 1.21 YPP in Big Ten games, giving up 5.75 while gaining just 4.54. In fairness, they did muster just 3.18 YPP against Ohio State, which has obviously lowered their averages.
Dan Lanning might be a James Franklin lite, in that he has very few noteworthy wins, but is very good at playing the bully role and running it up. Coming off of a lackluster effort in suboptimal weather against Iowa, perhaps he’ll try to do that here. No bet from me in this game, but sportsbooks are desperate for Minnesota money if you want to give them some.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 12 games on our Pro Picks Page.
