Clemson vs. SMU:

Texas winding up in the SEC Championship Game in Year 1 as a member is not really a surprise. A team from Texas being in the ACC Championship Game in its first season as a member is a bit of a surprise. That team is the SMU Mustangs and not only are they in the game, but they are also favored over the Clemson Tigers.

Money poured in on SMU at Circa Sportsbook on Sunday when Clemson opened -3 and the line swung to SMU -2.5. SMU was the only ACC team to run the table and their award is to play what basically amounts to a road game in Charlotte, but a trip to the College Football Playoff is on the line and they’d play the game on the moon if they had to.

 

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Clemson Tigers at SMU Mustangs (-2.5, 57)

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

Before digging into the handicap of the game itself, the “trip to the College Football Playoff is on the line” part probably needs a little more context. For Clemson, a win here is the only path to the first round. For SMU, is a close loss enough? Quality wins are in short supply because SMU didn’t play Miami, Clemson, Syracuse, or even Georgia Tech. The Mustangs also lost to BYU, though they did go on the road and beat Louisville and also crushed a then-ranked Pitt team.

Removing all doubt is the easiest path to the postseason, so that’s what SMU will look to do. The Mustangs rank 63rd in strength of schedule per Jeff Sagarin, while Clemson is 60th, so that’s some food for thought, especially when you consider that the Tigers played Georgia and South Carolina.

These two teams are just one spot apart in yards per play, with SMU 22nd at 6.47 and Clemson 23rd at 6.45. Where there is a huge difference is on defense, where SMU is 11th at 4.66 and Clemson is 60th at 5.45. Conference games tell a different story on defense, with Clemson, who also did not play Miami, allowing 5.04 YPP and SMU 4.61, so the gap is a good bit smaller.

That being said, the gap in offensive YPP in conference is much larger, with SMU at 6.78 and Clemson at 6.05. A lot of early line moves tend to come from what I call the “quant crowd”, the stats-based analysts who have models and team ratings. A lot of times yards per play differential can be a big factor and that is a big reason why, at least in my mind, we’ve seen money hit the SMU side.

Phil Mafah exited the South Carolina game a couple of times with an injury, so the 1,000-yard rusher for the Tigers looks to be well below 100%. Cade Klubnik was able to create some explosives in the passing game by throwing jump balls to his young, but extremely talented, wide receivers as the offensive line managed to give him enough time to throw against a terrific Gamecock front. The OL will be tested again because SMU comes in with 37 sacks and the third-ranked run defense in the nation with 2.8 yards per carry allowed.

SMU has racked up fewer yards per carry than Clemson, but the efforts of Brashard Smith are not the reason why. He’s got 1,157 yards and 6.0 yards per carry. QB Kevin Jennings is the second-leading rusher and the depth guys haven’t fared too well. But, Smith is a solid back and Jennings has 2,746 passing yards with a 66.7% completion rate. While he doesn’t have the touchdowns that Klubnik has, SMU is still fifth in scoring offense with over 39 points per game.

It will be interesting to see if Clemson’s experience in big games, from the sideline to the coaching staff, makes a difference here. The Tigers are tied for 11th in the nation with 23 takeaways and are +14 in TO margin. SMU has 21 takeaways and 19 giveaways, so +2 in TO margin. Jennings and the backs will have to take care of the rock against a ball-hawking Clemson defense.

All in all, I think these teams are pretty even. Ultimately, I’ll take Dabo Swinney vs. Rhett Lashlee in the biggest game Lashlee has ever coached in his career.

Pick: Clemson +2.5

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