Week 7 College Football: Coastal Carolina vs. James Madison
Two more Conference USA games are on the slate for Thursday, but we also add a little Sun Belt flavor. Coastal Carolina and James Madison draw the headline billing on ESPN2, while UTEP and Western Kentucky take center stage on ESPNU. Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech will be on CBS Sports Network, so we’ve got a trio of cable contests on October 10.
I’ll touch on all three games, but focus the most on the Chanticleers and Dukes.
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Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at James Madison Dukes (-9.5, 61)
7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
James Madison’s College Football Playoff hopes were microscopically minute to begin with, but last week’s loss to Louisiana-Monroe removed any sliver of doubt. It was a surprising outcome, as the Dukes only scored 19 points after scoring 133 points in wins over North Carolina and Ball State prior to that.
JMU wasn’t going to put up that many points, but the box score was definitely misleading against the Warhawks. The Dukes did struggle from a yards per play standpoint with 399 yards on 81 plays, but they did have a likely scoring drive wiped out by an 82-yard fumble return TD by ULM. The Dukes also turned it over on downs four times.
Coastal Carolina did not struggle in the YPP department last week. They had 515 yards on 65 plays against Old Dominion and put up 45 points with nearly eight yards per play. Moving the football has not been a problem. Even in the 43-24 loss to Virginia, the Chants had 6.7 yards per play. Defense, however, has been an issue.
Take away the win over FCS William & Mary and the Chants have allowed over six yards per play. That’s how you get a total in the low 60s, like what we have for this game. That said, outside of giving up a 50 burger to UNC, James Madison has allowed 7, 6, 7, and 21 points, with that defensive score last week adding to ULM’s tally.
Both teams have played objectively bad schedules, with James Madison 131st per Jeff Sagarin and Coastal Carolina 117th. I feel like Coastal Carolina has actually played a little bit better than I expected. I found Tim Beck to be a big downgrade from Jamey Chadwell and figured Grayson McCall would be missed, but he hasn’t been.
My line here is 8.5, so no real power ratings value, but Coastal Carolina can absolutely keep this close with how Ethan Vasko has played as both a passer and a runner.
Pick: Coastal Carolina +8.5
Other Thursday Games
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-4.5, 49.5): These are two really bad football teams on CBS Sports Network at 8 p.m. ET. LA Tech has lost to Tulsa and FIU in the last two games. Middle Tennessee is 0-4 against FBS teams and hasn’t lost by fewer than 17 points. That said, this is an enormous step down in class. Even with Tennessee Tech on the schedule, MTSU has played the hardest schedule in C-USA at No. 42 per Sagarin. Nobody else is lower than 77 entering the week.
The Blue Raiders are a team I have moved down in my College Football Power Ratings, but this is an opponent on their level finally. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt.
Pick: Middle Tennessee +4.5
UTEP Miners at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-19.5, 57): UTEP is not having the season that they hoped to have under first-year head coach Scotty Walden, as the Miners are 111th in yards per play and 104th in yards per play against. Western Kentucky has actually been worse on defense in that stat, but the Alabama game has a lot to do with that.
Caden Veltkamp has played well since taking over for TJ Finley, but the offense misses Austin Reed and Malachi Corley. I’m not sure they’re in rhythm enough to cover this big of a number. I have it 16.5 and would lean towards UTEP, but betting on the Miners seems like a really bad user experience.
