Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech
The first of three bowl games on Tuesday is the Independence Bowl featuring Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs have a bit of a home-field advantage here, as their Ruston campus is just an hour east in the Pelican State. The crew from Conway, SC has a little bit longer of a trek to Shreveport and they also have a lot more going on within the program right now.
We’ve seen Louisiana Tech grow as a favorite here, in part because of some transition with the Chanticleers. Head coach Tim Beck was fired. Former Louisiana Tech DC Jeremiah Johnson joined Coastal prior to the season and he will serve as the interim before heading to Kansas State to coach defensive backs. LA Tech doesn’t have the same coaching concerns, but both teams, surprisingly, aren’t going to be missing large swathes of the roster.
Odds from Circa Sports as of December 27, 9:45 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech (-9, 51)
Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN)
In this Sun Belt vs. Conference USA clash, we have a noteworthy strength of schedule difference, as the Chanticleers have the 83rd-ranked schedule per Jeff Sagarin and the Bulldogs have the 130th. The Chants were blown out by Virginia, Old Dominion, South Carolina, and James Madison in their four toughest games. Louisiana Tech did play LSU and lost 23-7, while also losing 35-7 to conference champ Kennesaw State and 28-3 to Washington State.
So, neither team did well stepping up in class, but these two teams are on more equal footing in a lot of ways. Obviously Johnson knows some of the personnel on his previous employer’s roster and knows the tendencies of Sonny Cumbie, who will probably enter next season on some very thin ice after posting just an 18-31 record over four seasons in Ruston. His Bulldogs lost this bowl game last season to Army, slotting into the game as a late replacement with a 5-7 record.
These two teams finished the regular season in very different ways, as LA Tech beat Liberty and Missouri State to finish 7-5, but Coastal ended the season with losses to Georgia Southern, South Carolina, and James Madison after racing out to a 6-3 record. They probably wouldn’t have won the final two games, but QB Samari Collier got hurt in the loss to Georgia Southern and he had really served as a spark plug for the offense.
Collier only completed 48.7% of his passes, but did have a 7/2 TD/INT ratio and also ran for six yards per carry and led the team in rushing touchdowns with seven. Tad Hudson had a 4/5 TD/INT ratio with a 55.6% completion rate and just 48 yards on 42 carries. He’s the expected starter in this one, another reason why this line has climbed in the lead-up to the game.
Despite Beck’s background in coaching offense, the Chants were not a good one. They averaged just 9.8 yards per catch and their leading receiver, Cameron Wright, had 24 catches for 274 yards. Bryson Graves led the team with 29 catches, but only had eight yards per reception. The Coastal offense mustered just 4.84 yards per play during the regular season.
Louisiana Tech will likely start Trey Kukuk again, as Blake Baker is hurt and Evan Bullock is in the transfer portal. Kukuk had a 66.3% completion percentage with a 2/3 TD/INT ratio over 86 pass attempts. Like Collier, his biggest spark came on the ground, where he averaged 6.2 yards per carry and finished the regular season as the team’s second-leading rusher and leader by yards per carry.
The loss of Johnson was felt in a big way for the Bulldogs. Last season’s defense was eighth in the nation in YPP allowed with just 4.68. This year’s defense sits 60th with 5.47 YPP against. Coastal, meanwhile, allowed 5.97 YPP last season and 6.24 YPP this season. Perhaps that’s why Johnson didn’t get a DC job this cycle and will instead serve as a DB coach. That said, the Kansas native is going back to the Sunflower State.
Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech Independence Bowl Prediction
As far as the opt-outs and portal players go, Coastal is losing both offensive tackles, while Louisiana Tech is losing a trio of heavily-used players in the back seven. Weather won’t be a factor, but neither pass offense is remotely prolific. It does feel like this is a pretty big number now, especially with Johnson likely viewing this game as an audition tape for what happens after his stop in Manhattan. With a defensive-minded interim head coach going against a coach he knows well, the Chanticleers can keep this within the number.
Pick: Coastal Carolina +9
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