College Football 2024 Power Ratings Projections:
Over the past month, I’ve collected the key information to compile my college football power ratings for the 2024 season. This involves analyzing the returning players/coaches for the teams, making adjustments based on last year’s finish and the current perception of teams. Then, I ensure I haven’t assumed anything unusual for each team’s recent history or conference strength. That last point was a particular challenge again this year, with massive realignment affecting the various conferences for the upcoming season.
Once again, the status of the all-important quarterback position stood out to me. Only 54 teams are returning their starting quarterbacks from last season, and several of the country’s most prominent teams from a year ago, most notably title game participants Michigan and Washington, are starting over at that position and in their coaching staffs as well. Meanwhile, the playoff semifinal losing teams from last January, Texas, and Alabama, as well as the consensus #1 team Georgia, bring back their stud QB for 2024. In addition, you will be watching experienced transfer quarterbacks guiding new teams. As I indicated earlier, this can challenge gauging team strength as we head into what figures to be a fantastic college season, which will culminate in the first-ever 12-team playoff.
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If you think the coaching carousel was significant in the offseason, the 29 changes to programs this season are fairly typical. However, the reasons for changes can cause some havoc for bettors. For instance, Alabama moves on from the Nick Saban era but replaces him with one of the shining stars from a year ago, Kalen DeBoer, who comes over from national runner-up Washington. If you’re looking for more of my betting insights regarding the coaching changes, I detailed them in an article about a month ago.
Admittedly, I have performed at an average level in projecting college football playoff participants in recent years. Obviously, with the expansion to 12 teams, this will present a whole new opportunity for teams who’ve never been able to get to the CFP level prior. A year ago, I had Alabama and Michigan as final four teams at this point, and those teams squared off in one of the semifinal games. I, along with most experts, missed out on Texas and, more so, Washington. For 2024, all of those teams outside of Washington are expected to be in the running for playoff berths. As you study the ratings chart below, you’ll see that the numbers reflect this perception.
I will continue to monitor teams and happenings across the country and make any tweaks necessary to the numbers again prior to the opening week kickoff. For now, I’ve taken my adjusted power ratings for 2024 and run them against the complete schedule so as to project the season standings. You will also find a listing of all the 134 FBS teams and their schedules for 2024 with my projected power ratings lines for each game included. Note that there are changes to many of the conferences, both in terms of the teams now sanctioned in the league and the removal of some divisions to certain conferences.
Use these numbers as a foundation for determining your favorite season-win total bets. As a reference, I have included all of the teams’ win total props available at DraftKings on the season standings chart.
Before unleashing the projections, however, let’s look at some of the highlights from the analysis:
– According to my figures, Florida plays the nation’s toughest schedule, at least as it stands now. The Gators are ranked just ahead of USC, UCLA, and Mississippi State. Besides facing their usual tough SEC foes, they will take on Miami and UCF in non-conference play. Third-year head coach Billy Napier’s program is coming off a 5-7 season but picked up some momentum in the offseason by signing their best recruiting/transfer class in a dozen years. Could it help overcome the daunting schedule and earn the program a bowl berth? We’ll see, but my projections have the Gators finishing at 5.4-6.6 against a 4.5 season-win total prop from DraftKings. The move to the Big Ten enhances the schedules of USC and UCLA, plus each faces LSU in non-conference action. Meanwhile, in Starkville, Mississippi State begins a new era under head coach Jeff Lebby and figures to find the going tough this fall with a young team. I have the Bulldogs winning 4.7 games against a 4 DK win prop.
– For the second straight college football season, Liberty holds the country’s easiest schedule on paper, with its opponents averaging a 27.35 power rating. To put that in perspective, it would be like playing a team at the level of Connecticut every week for an entire season. It’s no wonder my numbers call for the Flames to go 10.5-1.5 this season for head coach Jamey Chadwell, after winning 13 games a year ago. Florida Atlantic checks in at #133 in terms of schedule difficulty, with second-year coach Tom Herman looking to turn things around after a 4-8 campaign in 2023. The Owls’ win total prop is set at 6.5, and my projections have them going 7.2-4.8 against the watered-down schedule. Other programs with lighter schedules in 2024 include Central Michigan, Buffalo, and Toledo, all MAC teams.
– Oregon has the highest win projection of any team, with 10.7, which is a tic better than Georgia (10.6), Ohio State (10.5), and Liberty (10.5). There are three other double-digit win projections, then a big drop to 9.3. The other double-digit win teams are Texas, my national title pick, plus Penn State and Notre Dame. I mentioned the Flames’ easy schedule earlier, but Notre Dame’s isn’t all that tough either. If the Irish survive an opening week visit to Texas A&M, it could be smooth sailing for head coach Marcus Freeman’s team well into November. The Irish have high hopes after landing former Duke QB Riley Leonard in the transfer portal.
– Assuming the projections play out accurately, besides Oregon, Georgia, Ohio State, Texas, and Penn State, the other Power 5 conference teams that would be expected to contend for a spot in the college football playoffs this year would be Alabama, Michigan, Florida State, Utah, Missouri, Miami, and Ole Miss. All of those teams are expected to win nine regular season games or more, according to my projections. Some intriguing longshot contenders could include Clemson, Tennessee, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and even Texas A&M if they were to win the opener versus ND. SMU is also an interesting case, making the leap from Group of 5 level to Power 5. The Mustangs bring back a very experienced team for the 2024 season as they move to the ACC.
– Liberty (10.5), James Madison (8.9), Appalachian State (8.6), Texas State (8.5), and Fresno State (8.3) have the highest projected win totals among the Group of 5 teams, although each faces an early test or two that might prevent them from going undefeated and challenging for the coveted CFP spot. The Flames, off the huge Fiesta Bowl appearance, faces its most difficult game at Appalachian State in the last Saturday in September. Circle that game on the calendar as perhaps the biggest Group of 5 game of the year.
– In terms of teams expected to improve from last season, either by an enhanced power rating or an easier schedule, East Carolina and Florida Atlantic are each projected to win over 3.0 more games than a season ago. The Pirates were terrible last season for head coach Mike Houston, but they bring back some good experience, plus a new Power 5 transfer QB in Jake Garcia, who last played for Missouri. FAU figures to benefit from a soft schedule. In terms of Power 5 teams, Indiana is expected to make the biggest jump in 2024, picking up 2.8 more wins than in 2023. If you missed my article(s) on personnel or statistical transition systems that detail reasons on why teams should be better or worse this fall, be sure to check those out on VSiN.com.
– No teams are expected to drop off more in 2024 than the national title game participants Washington and Michigan. Both teams begin eras under new head coaches, and I have the Huskies going 7.2-4.8 and the Wolverines going 9.3-2.7 after they won 14 and 15 games, respectively, in 2023. If you read this article last year, my team expected to drop most was TCU, who was also the retuning national runner-up. The Horned Frogs went from 13-2 to 5-7, so there is some historical merit to these projections. Elsewhere, New Mexico State and Troy are other teams expected to drop off by 4.0 games or more from their 2023 records. Both teams are rebuilding under new coaching staffs as well, and if you don’t understand the significance of this type of change, these win projections demonstrate the potential importance. Florida State, UCLA, and Northwestern are other Power 5 programs expected to drop noticeably this fall.
– In terms of the projections and how they correlate to the Season Win Total Props offered up at DraftKings, here are the biggest differences. Teams expected to win more games than their DK win props include SMU (+1.1), Appalachian State (+1.1), Hawaii (+0.9), Florida (+0.9), James Madison (+0.9), and Indiana (+0.8). Teams expected to fall short of their season win props by the biggest margins include TCU (-1.3), Old Dominion (-1.0), UNLV (-1.1), Nebraska (-1.0), and Arizona State (-1.0).
On the chart below, you will find my projected standings for each conference. The teams are sorted by CONFERENCE WINS. You will also find their season win total from DraftKings, their 2024 Steve Makinen Power Rating, Home & Road Field Ratings, Schedule Strength & National Ranking, plus their overall and conference record projections.
Following that, you’ll find all of the team schedules with projected lines based on my power ratings. Use these to find betting options on the Games of the Year lines released by several books, including DraftKings. You’ll surely find some distinct differences when analyzing the numbers.
