One of my goals in betting is trying to buy low or sell high on teams throughout the season. In the early portion of the year, those opportunities are plentiful.

This week, we have a massive buy low spot on the schedule. It might involve backing an 0-3 ATS team, but there is no better time than the present to test the theory. 

 

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College Football Best Bets Week 4

California Golden Bears at Florida State Seminoles

It cannot get much worse for Florida State.

The Seminoles are 0-3 SU and ATS with a -19.8 spread differential. Their market rating has plummeted, and as of today the betting market believes Florida State is a worse team than Cal right now. There have been some who have been trying to catch the falling knife with FSU, and if you have you’ve been cut multiple times. 

I’m not one of those folks, but this week I’m reaching out to catch that sucker.

One of the factors that is being ignored about the Seminoles’ struggles early are the injuries. Specifically, the ones that have taken place along the offensive line. Last week, Florida State was playing without both starting offensive tackles. 

Darius Washington was a late scratch during warm ups last week. Jeremiah Byers was already slated to miss the game. Both are listed on the depth chart this week and expected to play. That is huge for this rushing attack which averaged only 3.5 yards per carry against Memphis. Runs off tackle in that contest amassed 10 yards on four carries.

The play of Uiagalelei is also being vastly overblown.

For example, the Oregon State transfer is the 14th-ranked passer in the ACC by PFF grade. However, his grade of 75.3 puts him in the top 50 passers in the country. Uiagalelei has thrown just one interceptable pass to this point of this season as well. If he is given a suitable running game his play should allow the Seminoles to put forth a much better effort offensively.

As for Cal, this is a negative spot. The Golden Bears on the east coast for the second time in three weeks.

Some might have been impressed with this team’s defensive effort in recent weeks, but the win over San Diego State should be given some nuance. The Aztecs started Javance Tupou’ata-Johnson last week. The freshman was extremely poor and looked clearly out of his depth.

It’s a dangerous play, but I’ll take my first shot at buying low on Florida State this week.

Play: Florida State (-2.5)

Tennessee Volunteers at Oklahoma Sooners

There are not many teams – if any at all – that have been upgraded by the betting market as much as Tennessee. 

In the summer this line was Oklahoma -4 and last week the lookahead at DraftKings had the Volunteers as a two-point favorite. As we stand today, Tennessee is laying seven points on the road. An upgrade is warranted, but one to this degree when we still don’t know much about the Volunteers is very aggressive.

Oklahoma has looked disjointed this season, but there are reasons for that. The Sooners have dealt with shuffling pieces along the offensive line, and the wide receiver room has not been whole. The latter point should be remedied this week when Nic Anderson makes his season debut for Oklahoma.

Tennessee has not been tested to this point. Specifically, the secondary has not been tested. According to the PFF numbers, some of the defensive backs – namely Andre Turrentine and Boo Carter – have graded out poorly. Jackson Arnold will be able to test this secondary with Anderson back in the fold.

In reality, this is just a sell-high move for me. The Volunteers could be as advertised, but I’ll take my chances with a line that has moved this much after three games against lesser competition.

Play: Oklahoma (+7)

Utah Utes at Oklahoma State Cowboys

The expectation for Utah is that quarterback Cam Rising will play this week against Oklahoma State. If that is the case, I trust this offense is going to be able to have its way against the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State is undefeated and 2-1 ATS with a +9.1 spread differential. One could argue the team is performing as expected, but there is a blemish on that resume.

The Cowboys should have lost to Arkansas two weeks ago. The Razorbacks had 648 yards of total offense, went 11-of-19 on third downs and averaged 4.9 yards per carry. But, Arkansas turned the ball over three times and was called for seven penalties. It eventually gave the game away.

This isn’t just about that result though. Oklahoma State was not good on defense last season. It finished 82nd in opponent EPA per play and 107th in opponent EPA per dropback. It was 121st in the country in yards per play allowed (6.48). That unit was on the field against Arkansas and got away with one. It won’t be able to against Utah.

Play: Utah (-1.5)

USC Trojans at Michigan Wolverines

Michigan has made the switch at quarterback to Alex Orji. It might not make the Wolverines’ offense much better, but it does fundamentally change the team’s philosophy.

Michigan will now switch to an even heavier run-focused approach on offense. Orji is not much of a passer, but he is a great athlete. The Wolverines will now have an offense in which the signal-caller must be accounted for in the running game. It gives them a dynamic that USC will not have much film on.

To that point, it likely means longer drives for Michigan, and I believe that will be a goal. Against Texas, the poor offense for the Wolverines left the defense out to dry. Because it was on the field for so long, the unit broke. It allowed 389 yards of offense and Texas went 10-of-16 on third downs. With less on time on the field due to the new offense, this group should be much better suited for USC this time around.

I also trust the Trojans defensively. They are 10th in opponent EPA per rush and 20th in opponent EPA per dropback. This group will be able to defend well, even against the new offense its opponent is rolling out this week.

So, I expect this to be a low-scoring affair in Ann Arbor on Saturday.

Play: UNDER 46.5

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