College Football Best Bets December December 31-January 4 from Steve Makinen:

It was a very frustrating holiday week for my bowl best bets as I either won them handily, lost them definitively, or lost them in heartbreaking fashion. I didn’t pull out anything I thought I had lost. Regrettably, I put a lot of faith in ACC teams as well. It’s been that kind of run lately, unfortunately. Right now, I am 15-16-1 ATS in the “postseason.” That puts my season record at 142-132-6 ATS (51.8%) with games through 12/28. For this next set of games, I will be covering the rest of the prescheduled games from 12/31-1/4, including all four of the CFP quarterfinal games. So, let’s get right to my college football best bets, 12 games to go through…

 

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Alabama vs. Michigan

ReliaQuest Bowl – Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, Florida

Tuesday, December 31, 2024

For as much as I wish I would have chosen to write this Alabama-Michigan game up earlier, I have to accept the line of -14 as someone who will be backing Alabama. You have to wonder what this line might have been without the Wolverines’ upset of Ohio State considered. Obviously, there is a lot of motivation in a game like that, going against the most fierce rival of all. This game will not have the same energy. Head coach Sherron Moore and Michigan won their “Super Bowl” already. This particular contest will be bigger for Kalen DeBoer and the Tide in his quest to get started on 2025 already. 

Speaking of the coaches, with Moore heading his first bowl game, this system will be in play: First-time bowl game head coaches have really struggled over the last eight seasons, going 38-55 SU and 37-55-1 ATS (40.2%) vs. non-first-year coaches! I also mentioned that I wished I had got the line earlier after it opened at -9.5. However, with the number where it is now, we need to recall that heading into 2024 bowl season, in bowl games between 1992-2024 that had closing lines more than four points off of their opening line, the team that the line moved towards is 40-25-1 ATS (61.5%). 

There are also a few interesting trends to consider: 1) SEC teams have gone 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in the last nine editions of the ReliaQuest Bowl 2) Favorites have won the last seven Alabama bowl games SU and ATS and 3) Big Ten teams are on a 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS skid as double-digit underdogs in bowl games. I look for the Tide to roll here.

College Football Best Bet: I got Alabama -14 versus Michigan

Louisville vs. Washington 

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl – Sun Bowl Stadium – El Paso, Texas

Tuesday, December 31, 2 p.m.

For as much as the line for Sun Bowl has dumped towards Washington, I just can’t on board that side because of what I wrote in my Seven Motivational Factors article: “Louisville was a far better team than Washington this season, and even though QB Tyler Shough is opting out of the Sun Bowl to get ready for the NFL draft, the line for the game (-2.5 at the time) doesn’t do justice to the disparity of the strength of the teams. 

The Huskies lost all six road/neutral games they played this season, all against bowl teams, and the last four all by 14 points or more. My power ratings say they are 10.5 points worse than the Cardinals, who had impressive wins over the likes of Georgia Tech and Clemson and near misses against Notre Dame and Miami. QB or not, this line should be regarded by head coach Jeff Brohm’s team as disrespectful. With that in mind, and the total dumping, I don’t see Brohm taking his foot off the pedal offensively. He never has in bowl games, having gone Over the total in all seven prior bowl games, with those producing 81.7 PPG on average! For what it’s worth, the last six Sun Bowl games with totals of less than 51 went Over the total.

College Football Best Bet: I’m going to back an OVER 49 on the total in Louisville-Washington

South Carolina vs. Illinois 

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl – Camping World Stadium – Orlando, Florida

Tuesday, December 31, 3 p.m.

The Cheez-it Bowl line has reached -10 in favor of South Carolina. To me, that is a very big deal because of a few trends that I have run across in my bowl game research. First, Big Ten teams are on a 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS skid as double-digit underdogs in bowl games. Second, this bowl series shows an amazing trend that outright winners are on a 23-0 ATS run in Citrus Bowl games since 2002. It would seem a lot easier to lay 10 points with a trend like that looming. 

More regarding the Citrus Bowl history, Big Ten teams are just 2-10 SU and ATS in their last 12 Citrus Bowl appearances, and favorites are on 11-3 SU and ATS run in the last 14 Citrus Bowl games, including five straight. If that weren’t enough, favorites have swept the last seven Illinois bowl games SU and ATS. 

Head Coach Shane Beamer of the Gamecocks has been outwardly enthusiastic about this opportunity for his team. They had a tremendous season, going 9-3, upsetting the likes of Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Clemson along the way. I’d be surprised to see them not show up with a chance to close out a program-building season in fine fashion.

College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the 10-points with South Carolina

Baylor vs. LSU

Kinder’s Texas Bowl – NRG Stadium – Houston, Texas

Tuesday, December 31, 3:30 p.m.

I read a New Orleans local newspaper’s preview of the Texas Bowl, and it centered around how a shorthanded LSU team could pull off the surprise on Baylor. Two of the four key points were on establishing the run and working in young players successfully. Tell me, does that sound like the Tigers’ team we have watched this season or one that fans just hope “shows up” for the contest? 

This game has a somewhat ugly feel to it in that Baylor, a team from Texas, will be far more interested in playing. It’s no wonder the line has moved from LSU -2.5 at opening to Baylor -4 as of Monday. As such, we must recall that heading into 2024 bowl season, in bowl games between 1992-2024 that had closing lines more than four points off of their opening line, the team that the line moved towards is 40-25-1 ATS (61.5%). 

There are two particular trends that should make you comfortable laying points here. First, outright winners are 21-1-1 ATS in the history of the Texas Bowl series. Second, outright winners are a perfect 13-0 ATS in the last 13 Baylor bowl games. The Bears’ recent bowl games have been definitive. Finally, considering that Baylor came from 3-9 last season, remember that teams that won 0-3 games (25% or less) the prior season and qualified for a bowl game the next are 39-13-2 ATS (75%) over the last nine bowl seasons when matched against a team not in that situation. Vanderbilt was one of these teams earlier and played very well.

College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Baylor laying the 4 points versus LSU

Penn State vs. Boise State

CFP Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl – State Farm Stadium – Glendale, Arizona

Tuesday, December 31, 7:30 p.m.

Both Penn State and Boise State got into shootouts with Oregon this season, and both lost in single-score decisions. That was the only common opponent. It also happens to be the only game the Broncos lost all season. If you’re wondering whether or not Boise State can match up physically with the Nittany Lions and the Big Ten here, that is the one contest I would point to for a definitive yes. 

How else can we measure the strength levels of two teams from vastly different conferences? Well, how about my Effective Strength Ratings, which formulate in the various schedule strength differences between teams. My numbers show Penn State at +35.2 after their demolishing of SMU in the first-round playoff game. My ESR for Boise State is +25.7. This means there is a 9.5-point difference between the teams, not 11.5, as the current line indicates.

I think there is a little bit too much being made about the win over SMU, which was at State College, and the Mustangs were clearly overwhelmed by the circumstances. I don’t see that happening here in Glendale, where the Broncos have played before, and played well. With 56% of the bets at DraftKings on Boise as of Monday, 12/30, I expect this to be a very competitive game.

College Football Best Bet: I’ll take Boise State +11.5 in the Fiesta Bowl

Texas vs. Arizona State 

CFP Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl – Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta

Wednesday, January 1, 1:00 p.m. ET

Texas looked very strong in its playoff opening-round win over Clemson, although in the end, it was the only one of the four games where it looked like the favorite could be in trouble in terms of covering the point spread. Two key differences between that game and this one if you ask me. One, the game was in Austin. Two, ASU figures to be a more physical team that Clemson was, especially since pounding RB Phil Mafah missed most of the game for the Tigers. If you watched any of the Big 12 title game versus Iowa State, you saw a dominant physical effort by the Sun Devils and, in particular, RB Cam Skattebo. ASU won that game 45-19. 

Don’t forget, Texas, a veteran team that returned a lot of players from the 2023 playoff team, only beat the Cyclones 26-16 in the season finale last year. The Peach Bowl has a history of underdogs coming up big, as they are 21-9-1 ATS since 1993. From a motivational standpoint, how big of a chip on the shoulder will head coach Kenny Dillingham’s team have here too? 

They have been fighting off naysayers all season after a 3-9 campaign in 2023.  Teams that won 0-3 games (25% or less) the prior season and qualified for a bowl game the next are 39-13-2 ATS (75%) over the last nine bowl seasons when matched against a team not in that situation. Also, teams that improved by 6+ wins (or by 50%+) from the prior regular season are on an 18-7 ATS (70.8%) run in bowl games as underdogs.

College Football Best Bet: To me, Arizona State +12.5 is a very live underdog

Ohio State vs. Oregon 

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game – Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California

Wednesday, January 1, 5 p.m. ET

What a titanic tilt for this year’s Rose Bowl game, a rematch of an earlier season battle between Ohio State and Oregon in Eugene. The Ducks won that game 32-31 as 3.5-point dogs at a point in the season in which they hadn’t really hit their stride yet. In fact, at that point, they went into the game with a 1-4 ATS mark. Including that result, they are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS since, outscoring teams 36.5-18.3. 

The Ducks won some games in some new and pretty tough environments. One place that hasn’t been a tough environment for the Ducks has been Pasadena, as they have won three straight Rose Bowl appearances, putting up 44.3 PPG in the process. Of course, the Buckeyes also love playing at Pasadena as well, with four straight wins on their ledger. So, what does this game come down to for me? Probably, like many of you, understanding why OSU is favored against the undefeated #1 seed. 

My effective strength indicators sort of tell the tale if you ask me. I have OSU at +42.9, Oregon at +35.4. In fact, head coach Dan Lanning’s team ranked #9 in the country in that key strength metric at the end of the season. Also, if you look at the recent history of the “Grandaddy of them all,” favorites are on a 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS run in the last 17 years of Rose Bowl games because there is never any shortage of motivation to play in this one. HC Ryan Day’s team opened as a 1-point favorite. It has since been bet up to -2.5. I think righteously.

College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the 2.5-points with Ohio State in Pasadena

Notre Dame vs. Georgia

CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl – Caesars Superdome – New Orleans

Wednesday, January 1, 8:45 p.m. ET

In all honesty, to me, it appears as if oddsmakers haven’t even taken a deduction of any sort for Georgia QB Carson Beck’s season-ending injury suffered in the SEC championship game. Now granted, backup Gunnar Stockton played reasonably well in relief of Beck in that game. Eventually, it led his team to a remarkable comeback win, but he did it with toughness and game management. 

Is head coach Kirby Smart’s team going to be able to beat a team as tough on both sides of the ball as Notre Dame with that strategy for 60 minutes? I assume Stockton will be better come New Year’s Day in terms of his rhythm with the first-unit Bulldogs’ offense, but they literally could not even throw the ball downfield with any success against the Longhorns. I would put the Irish defense up against essentially any team in the country right now. Maybe the offense, too, while we’re at it. 

In fact, my Effective Strength Rating shows Notre Dame at +40.1 heading into this game and Georgia at +35.7, and that is without any deduction for Beck. He has to be worth at least 3 points here – doesn’t he? After all, he did have almost 35 career starts for the program. 

To my surprise, when I checked the DK betting splits page on VSiN.com on Monday, I found that 79% of the handle was backing Georgia. I know historically that the Irish have not been a big game team, but I am convinced this year’s team is different and head coach Marcus Freeman’s team has been building for this moment. I believe the wrong team is favored here and since outright winners are 23-1-1 ATS since 2000 in the Sugar Bowl, we might as well jump right into the money line.

College Football Best Bet: I’m going with Notre Dame to win the Sugar Bowl

Duke vs. Ole Miss

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl – EverBank Stadium – Jacksonville, Florida

Thursday, January 2, 7:30 p.m. ET

From all indications, Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart and most of his other pro-bound teammates are embracing their chance to play one final game for the Rebels in the Gator Bowl. They are a hefty favorite against Duke, but in my opinion, nowhere near hefty enough. This is the bowl season’s biggest mismatch, according to my power ratings, and that was even before Duke QB Maalik Murphy transferred out. 

My current PR’s are Ole Miss 65.5 and Duke 46.5. My Effective Strength Ratings show an even greater disparity 39.6-17.2. And, as Murphy was such a big part of the Blue Devils’ offense this season, I believe he necessitates at least a 4-point docking. In other words, I feel this point spread should easily be in the 20’s, not 17. If I know anything about Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin too, he will be forthright about making sure his team covers the big spread too. From a trend perspective, consider that favorites are on a run of 23-3 SU and 18-8 ATS in Gator Bowl games.

College Football Best Bet: Try convincing me that Ole Miss (-17) won’t rout Duke

North Texas vs. Texas State University

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl – Gerald J. Ford Stadium – Dallas

Friday, January 3, 4:00 p.m. ET

You don’t see too many in-state proving ground types of games in bowl season, especially those that are not played in the teams’ backyard. Well, the First Responder Bowl played in Dallas matches North Texas and Texas State. If you ask me, one of the teams proved to be far superior this season and seems to be taking a much better interest in playing the game. That would be the Bobcats, who beat three bowl game teams this season in going 7-5. If you recall, they put together a very focused effort in crushing Rice a year ago in this same game, 45-21. 

The Mean Green, meanwhile, finished 6-6 after going 1-5 SU and ATS in their final six games. The defense allowed 34.5 PPG, and the one player capable of keeping them competitive in this contest, QB Chandler Morris has opted for the transfer portal. Looking at the recent history of this bowl series, favorites are a perfect 11-0 SU in the First Responders Bowl series, going 6-2-3 ATS – favoring Texas State University. They are also a perfect 9-0 SU as well as 7-2 ATS in the last nine North Texas bowl games. Not coincidentally, North Texas is just 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS in the last nine bowl games. 

There are also a couple of nice conference rep trends as well, 1) In the L43 bowl games featuring a team from the AAC, FAVORITES are 28-15 ATS, and 2) In AAC bowl games against the Group of 5 or Independent opponents, favorites are on a 16-3 ATS surge. Finally, with Eric Morris of UNT a rookie in terms of bowl coaching, first-time bowl game head coaches have really struggled over the last eight seasons, going 38-55 SU and 37-55-1 ATS (40.2%) vs. non-first-year coaches.

College Football Best Bet: I expect Texas State (-13) to roll in the First Responders Bowl

Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech 

Duke’s Mayo Bowl – Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, North Carolina

Friday, January 3, 7:30 p.m. ET

For as much as Minnesota will be missing a few key players on the defensive side of the ball for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl matchup with Virginia Tech, the losses pale in comparison to that of the Hokies, who will be missing most of their best players, including QB Kyron Drones. We expect to see redshirt freshman Pop Watson at the position but the matchup is a tough one for him, as typically, Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck has his team ready to go come bowl time. In fact, Fleck is on a five-game bowl winning streak (closest win 6 points), and the Minnesota program is on a seven-game bowl winning streak (6-1 ATS). 

Plus, we all have to give great consideration to just how badly the ACC has played this year in bowl games. I have already lost on several occasions with a team from that league, and I’m not doing it again, especially when it feels like Tech could care less about being in Charlotte. As it is, ACC reps are just 4-11 ATS in the last 15 games of the Duke’s Mayo bowl series, including five straight current losing streak, and Big Ten teams are on a 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS surge in bowl games versus teams from the ACC.

College Football Best Bet: I’m confident laying the points with Minnesota (-8)

Buffalo vs. Liberty 

Bahamas Bowl – Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium – Nassau, Bahamas

Saturday, January 4, 11 a.m. ET

One team came together to have a much different season than was expected. The other underachieved badly in what was expected to be a championship-type of season. It has since lost its quarterback and top offensive lineman to the transfer portal. The latter team started out favored but has since flipped dramatically to underdog, a 5-point line move, in fact. Remember that in bowl games between 1992-2024 that had closing lines more than four points off of their opening line, the team that the line moved towards is 40-25-1 ATS (61.5%). Guess which way I’m leaning, being a big “bowl motivation” type of bettor? Correct…Buffalo. 

The Bulls won eight games this year when they were supposed to win 5.5, according to the oddsmakers. The Flames won the same amount when they were pegged to win 10.5. This came against what was the country’s easiest schedule. New head coach Pete Lembo had his Buffalo team galvanized quickly, and they won three games in upset fashion. They get a Liberty team without QB Kaidon Salter after he started every game for his team over the last two years, putting up massive numbers. Too much negative material to expect a big game from head coach Jamey Chadwell’s team.

Of course, there are also some solid trends to lean on: 1) Buffalo has won its last three bowl games SU and ATS 2) Playing in the small underdog role of less than 7 points has not been kind to CUSA teams, with a record of 12-28 SU and 13-27 ATS since 2001. 3) favorites are on an amazing 25-3 SU and 21-6-1 ATS run in bowl games between CUSA and MAC opponents. And finally, after Buffalo went 3-9 in 2023, teams that won 0-3 games (25% or less) the prior season and qualified for a bowl game the next are 39-13-2 ATS (75%) over the last nine bowl seasons when matched against a team not in that situation.

College Football Best Bet: I have Buffalo -2.5 in the Bahamas Bowl

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