College football best bets for Week 7
Catch Matt Youmans every weekday on VSiN Tonight (M-F, 9 p.m.-12 a.m. ET), where the final hour on Friday is the Circa Football Invitational Contest Show (11 p.m.-12 a.m. ET).
College Football Odds | College Football Betting Splits | Week 4 Hub
It’s not a stretch to compare USC quarterback Caleb Williams to Patrick Mahomes. The comparison is more about their similar style of play and not a prediction that Williams will follow Mahomes’ path and win multiple NFL MVP awards and Super Bowls.
Williams has a Mahomes-like ability to escape the pocket, improvise, twist his body and put throws with a high degree of difficulty on the money. Williams is also a makeup artist, which means he compensates for and covers up many of his team’s flaws.
USC is dealing with an obvious problem. Its defense allowed a total of 110 points in the past three games against Arizona, Colorado and Arizona State, and the Trojans’ 43-41 triple-overtime victory over the Wildcats last week was especially disturbing. In his second career start, second-string quarterback Noah Fifita passed for 303 yards and five touchdowns while leading Arizona to a 506-365 advantage in total yards. The Wildcats rushed for 203 yards and controlled a majority of the game.
Defensive deficiencies are the reason USC is a 2.5-point underdog at Notre Dame on Saturday night. Williams might be good enough to win it nearly by himself, but I’ll bet against that.
The Fighting Irish have a far superior defense which held Ohio State to 10 points for 59-plus minutes three weeks ago. Notre Dame also has a running back, Audric Estime, who can control the clock and the flow of the game.
Maybe the Irish are running out of gas, heading into their fourth consecutive prime-time game, but returning home to face an undefeated Top 10 opponent will be energizing. Notre Dame should be primed to bounce back as Sam Hartman, who was sacked five times and intercepted three times in a loss at Louisville, puts up big numbers against a bad defense.
It would be no surprise if this goes down to the wire, similar to the Ohio State-Notre Dame thriller, so I’m laying the moneyline price instead of the points.
Pick: Notre Dame -135
After going 3-4 last week, I’m reducing the play list and expecting a winning week. Here are three more bets for Week 7 (home team in CAPS):
PITTSBURGH (+7.5) over Louisville
The Panthers have been a mess during a four-game losing streak, but they are coming off a bye and making a quarterback switch, so those are two positives. The situational edges point to the home ‘dog. The Cardinals (6-0) just won their Super Bowl, upsetting Notre Dame as fans stormed the field, and this is an emotional letdown. Louisville coach Jeff Brohm is a big-game coach. This is not a big game, and Brohm’s quarterback, Jack Plummer, has not been lighting up defenses. Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi’s defense should keep this close.
WASHINGTON (-3) over Oregon
Michael Penix Jr. has completed 74.7% of his passes with 16 touchdowns and minimal negative plays (two interceptions, three sacks). The Huskies arguably have been the nation’s most impressive team and probably should be power rated No. 2 behind Georgia. It’s easy to put faith in Penix and tougher to trust Ducks quarterback Bo Nix on the road. I bet this at -2.5, but that number is not coming back.
HAWAII (+6) over San Diego State
This is not the typical San Diego State team that wins with a tough defense and a strong rushing offense. The Aztecs are weaker in all areas. There’s not a lot to like about Warriors coach Timmy Chang’s team either, but quarterback Brayden Schager is pointed in the right direction and totaled 558 passing yards in the past two games. Hawaii is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as a Honolulu ‘dog.
