Tennis best bets for ATP Shanghai: Ugo Humbert vs. Andrey Rublev – Friday, October 13

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Tennis best bets for ATP Shanghai – Friday, October 13

There isn’t much time left in the 2023 tennis season, but the Asian swing brings us some really big tournaments. This week, the men are in action for a 1000-level event, which is the biggest a tournament can be outside of the four Grand Slams. I’ll be focusing on Shanghai with my tennis best bets for the week. We’re already into the quarterfinals of this event, so things are moving along quickly. So, keep reading for my best bet for Friday, October 13 (potentially starting on Thursday, October 12 in the United States). 

 

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Ugo Humbert vs. Andrey Rublev 

I had Rublev to cover 2.5 games against Tommy Paul last round and he came away with a 7-5, 7-5 victory. Now, I like him to cover that same spread against Humbert, and it just boils down to Rublev’s form. It almost feels like it came out of nowhere, but I believe Rublev has played some of the best tennis of his career this week. In fact, Rublev’s 6-3, 6-0 win over Adrian Mannarino in the Round of 32 might have been the best match I’ve ever seen him play. And he backed it up with a good performance against Paul.

Of course, playing a big server like Humbert gives him a smaller margin for error. But I think Rublev is really dialed in from the baseline, where he should have a massive advantage over the Frenchman. The only thing I’m worried about is Rublev covering in a match that could easily have a tiebreaker or two. But I keep going back to the fact that Humbert occasionally gives away service games, especially in big matches. With this being a quarter-final matchup of a 1000-level event, this would definitely qualify as a big match. At some point, I think the magnitude of the match will manifest itself in the form of a poorly played game — or a few — from Humbert. And that should make the difference. This is also a revenge spot for Rublev, who lost to Humbert in a tight three-set match last week. I trust a top-10 player to make adjustments more than a guy like Humbert.   

Bet: Rublev -2.5 Games (-130 – 2 units) 

Quick Note: This spread has moved to Rublev -3.5 since this was published. With that said, the best way to play Rublev might now be to parlay him moneyline with Grigor Dimitrov to beat Nicolas Jarry. I don’t have an official play on that match, but I lean towards the Bulgarian getting it done outright. So, that could get you a better price, but there’s obviously some risk when playing the two matches together. 

2023 Overall Record: 295-272 (+48.51 units) 

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Zach has been writing about betting since he was a student at the University of Wisconsin, which is when he started working with StatFox — and contributing to the weekly Platinum Sheet. His work has since been featured for brands like Covers, Sports Illustrated and Tennis Channel. Zach is extremely passionate about the NBA, but he does a bit of everything and has found a niche as a tennis handicapper. Outside of work, Zach likes nothing more than shooting around in an empty gym or watching bad comedies.