Week 10 College Football
Welcome to the Week 10 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I take a look at the college football slate through the lens of my proprietary college football model, the T Shoe Index, and compare and contrast where other respected predictive models – SP+, FPI, and Sagarin – align and disagree on the college football schedule. There are Week 10 college football betting opportunities based on model alignment and games where it may be best to proceed with caution or stay away if the projections vary too much.
Note: SP+ Rankings are the work of CFB analyst Bill Connelly (ESPN), FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Week 10 College Football Model Alignment
Model Consensus
Florida vs Georgia (-7), O/U 50.5
Florida is searching for its next head coach after firing Billy Napier midway through the season, while Georgia seemingly finds a way to beat everyone not named Alabama under Kirby Smart. Georgia has dominated this “rivalry” recently, winning the last three games by an average of 19.6 points per game.
Our model average projection on this game is Georgia -10.1 with a variance of just 1.5 points. All four models strongly indicate Georgia should win and cover this number, with TSI and SP+ calling for a double digit Bulldogs win, while FPI and Sagarin project -9.5 and -8.5, respectively. This isn’t the Georgia teams from 2021-2022 by any means, but they’re still one of the best 10-12 teams in the country and have had the Gators’ number, so I’m going to lay the points with Kirby and the ‘Dogs.
College Football Pick: Georgia -7
Washington State (-3.5) vs Oregon State, O/U 47.5
In a battle of teams in no-man’s land after conference realignment, Washington State is a 3.5-point favorite on the road in Corvallis against the Oregon State Beavers. The Cougars have started out 4-4 this year, which is well above expectation considering their season win total was just 4.5 before the year. Oregon State is 1-7 and hasn’t shown a whole lot of life this season.
The model average projection on this game is Washington State -5.5 with a variance of just 2.6 points. FPI is the only model remotely close to calling for a Beavers’ cover, making the line WSU -3.6, while all other three models project a touchdown win for the Cougars. Over the last three games, TSI would make WSU a whopping 16.5-point favorite, so I’m glad to lay the 3.5 here.
College Football Pick: Washington State -3.5
Model Disagreement
Stanford vs Pittsburgh (-14.5), O/U 51.5
The models have no clue how to project this game, which has Pittsburgh flying across the country to take on Stanford on the west coast in a conference game (for the Atlantic Coast Conference). Both teams have been pretty inconsistent this year, with Stanford recently upsetting Florida State and Pittsburgh inexplicably losing to West Virginia early in the season.
The models are all over the place with this game, with an average projection of Pitt -13.5 but a variance of 15.1 points. FPI and Sagarin indicate Stanford should be the play, with FPI actually making the line just Pitt -7 and Sagarin making it -11. TSI is right in line with the market at 14.5 but SP+ makes Pitt a 22-point favorite. Good luck sorting this handicap out, I’m going to sit this game out.
Bowling Green (-2) vs Buffalo, O/U 43.5
Buffalo enters the game with the better record, but Bowling Green is listed as the favorite after the game opened a pick ‘em on Sunday. Buffalo has failed to cover in five straight games and Bowling Green is just 2-3 ATS in its last five, so something’s got to give in this one.
The average projection on this game is Bowling Green -3, with a variance of 11.5 points. TSI and FPI indicate the line should be 4.5-5.5 in favor of the Falcons, Sagarin is even stronger at BG -7, but SP+ has Buffalo slotted as a 4.5 point favorite. It seems Buffalo is on a steeper decline at the moment than Bowling Green, so I did play the Falcons at pick ‘em on Sunday, and would probably play them under 3, but if you’re an SP+ disciple , I would understand trusting Bill C and backing off this game altogether.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Thursdays and also my Monday early-week college football bets.
