College Football Betting Splits Systems Update for the 2025 Season:
With college football’s “Week 0” about a week and a half away, I continue my preseason prep work by preparing the DraftKings Betting Splits Systems that we will be tracking and qualifying in the VSiN College Football Analytics Reports. If you haven’t been following my DK Betting Splits work over the last few years, these systems, and the splits for that matter, have taken off in their popularity. In short, the numbers that DK provides in this feed summarize the percentage of the money handle and the number of bets on each side of a wagering option for the games in most major sports. Just last week, I published a separate piece detailing the performance results of majority bettors for the NFL Preseason recently, along with the corresponding systems we employ for that.
If you are new to this methodology, I encourage you to read last week’s preseason piece or any of the previous Betting Splits articles I have published. You can find them on my author page. I am going to jump right into the data and the systems we will be offering for this season. If you’re wondering, the first VSiN College Football Analytics Report will be out for Week 0, likely on Tuesday, 8/19.
One key concept that readers need to consider when utilizing the systems: not all of them rely on fading the public majorities. Some of them are actually built on the premise of getting behind the masses, as evidenced by some of these angles, which prove that there are spots in which the public has thrived with college football. You’ll see several of those below.
Just a quick background on the data set used to develop the records and systems. I have three full seasons of DraftKings Betting Splits data for college football, the 2022-24 seasons, totaling 2,365 games. The data only includes games matching two FBS opponents against one another: To summarize majority bettors’ performance in that time, they have lost more than not in point spreads, won more on totals. Here are the majority records since the beginning of the 2022 college football season:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 1108-1166 ATS (48.7%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 1134-1137 ATS (49.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1180-1117 (51.4%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1177-1124 (51.2%)
Interestingly, on the handle, the majorities are 2.6% better in non-conference games than they are in conference tilts.
As you can see, none of these records would be definitive enough to blindly follow or fade to produce a profit when considering the vigorish added in. Thus, we have to dig deeper to find usable angles. Thus, without further ado, here are the DK Betting Splits College Football Systems and their 2022-2024 performance records that we will be posting and tracking over the next few months in the VSiN College Football Analytics Reports. Use these in conjunction with the other great handicapping trends and systems to make this your best season of betting ever:
CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). This angle has consistently produced over the last few seasons. Blindly fading these majority bettors during this span would have given you a small profit in three straight years.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, and in 2024 it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits number of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Recreational bettors often prefer road favorites because they are typically the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in 2024, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a majority of 55% or more of the number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past three seasons, this majority group has gone 129-106 ATS (54.9%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-24 seasons record was 213-163 (56.6%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: Contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge HOME favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. Typically, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 60-40 ATS (60%) over the last three seasons.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the 2022 season, where the totals reached 59 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 61-47 (56.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 108 of 2,364 games.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 57-42 (56.7%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in 2024 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of the number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
