College Football Bowl Game Betting Systems:

I continue the series on my Seven Motivational Factors for handicapping the college bowl games with a look at factor #5 – Head coach experience is of ultra-importance. For a deeper explanation as to the reasoning behind my list, see the original released article from Monday 12/9 

I will be releasing each of the factors in separate pieces over the next weeks or so, with the order coming in what can be immediately taken as applicable to those things that will develop in the days/weeks before kickoffs.

 

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Seven College Football Bowl Game Betting Systems:

Nos. 1-4 – Coming soon

No. 5 – This article

No. 6 – Regional or Home-Field Advantage

No. 7 – Performance Relative to Regular Season Expectations  

Head Coach Experience is of Ultra-Importance

This is system No. 5 on my list.

It’s not hard to understand, some coaches just fare better than others in using the extra preparation time involved in bowl games to get their game plans cemented and their teams physically and mentally ready to play. After all, these are the key ingredients to being a successful coach, almost as important as navigating the transfer portal nowadays. With all of the extras involved with bowl games, the importance of coaching is magnified. In preparation for the 2022-23 bowl season, I dedicated myself to taking a closer look at the coaching situations in bowl games. I was ecstatic to uncover some truly golden betting nuggets regarding first-time bowl coaches and experience differences in bowl games among coaches. I continued relying on it last season. Regarding the latter:

Since 2015, or the last nine bowl seasons, head coaches with an experience advantage in terms of the number of bowl games coached over the opponent have gone 177-140 SU and 173-141-3 ATS (55.1%)! However, in the name of transparency, I do have to share that these coaches were 18-22 SU and 16-23 ATS last season, the worst performance of any of the nine seasons tracked. 

These are the bowl games for 2024-25, and the number of bowl games experience for each coach. They are listed in order of experience disparity. There are 36 games so far with a difference in bowl game coaching experience. There will be seven more games based on the playoff results. If the game is not listed, the bowl game coaching experience is EVEN.

S ALABAMA – MAJOR APPLEWHITE (3) vs. W MICHIGAN – LANCE TAYLOR (0): Edge – S ALABAMA by 3 

MEMPHIS – RYAN SILVERFIELD (4) vs. WEST VIRGINIA – CHAD SCOTT (0): Edge – MEMPHIS by 4

W KENTUCKY – TYSON HELTON (5) vs. JAMES MADISON – BOB CHESNEY (0): Edge – W KENTUCKY by 5

CALIFORNIA – JUSTIN WILCOX (3) vs. UNLV – DEL ALEXANDER (0): Edge – CALIFORNIA by 3

GA SOUTHERN – CLAY HELTON (7) vs. SAM HOUSTON STATE – BRAD CORNELSEN (0): Edge – GA SOUTHERN by 7 

OHIO U – BRIAN SMITH (0) vs. JACKSONVILLE STATE – RICH RODRIGUEZ  (12): Edge – JACKSONVILLE STATE by 12

TULANE – JON SUMRALL (1) vs. FLORIDA – BILLY NAPIER (5): Edge – FLORIDA by 4 

INDIANA – CURT CIGNETTI (0) vs. NOTRE DAME – MARCUS FREEMAN (3): Edge – NOTRE DAME by 3 

SMU – RHETT LASHLEE (2) vs. PENN STATE – JAMES FRANKLIN (12): Edge – PENN ST by 10

CLEMSON – DABO SWINNEY (19) vs. TEXAS – STEVE SARKISIAN (6): Edge – CLEMSON by 13

COASTAL CAROLINA – TIM BECK (1) vs. TX-SAN ANTONIO – JEFF TRAYLOR (4): Edge – TX-SAN ANTONIO by 3 

N ILLINOIS – THOMAS HAMMOCK (2) vs. FRESNO STATE – TIM SKIPPER (1): Edge – N ILLINOIS by 1 

SOUTH FLORIDA – ALEX GOLESH (1) vs. SAN JOSE STATE – KEN NIUMATALOLO (11): Edge – SAN JOSE STATE by 10

RUTGERS – GREG SCHIANO (8) vs. KANSAS STATE – CHRIS KLIEMAN (4): Edge – RUTGERS by 4 

ARKANSAS ST –  BUTCH JONES (7) vs. BOWLING GREEN – SCOT LOEFFLER (2): Edge – ARKANSAS STATE by 5

GEORGIA TECH – BRENT KEY (1) vs. VANDERBILT – CLARK LEA (0): Edge – GEORGIA TECH by 1 

OKLAHOMA – BRENT VENABLES (2) vs. NAVY – BRIAN NEWBERRY (0): Edge – OKLAHOMA by 2 

SYRACUSE – FRAN BROWN (0) vs. WASHINGTON STATE – JAKE DICKERT (2): Edge – WASHINGTON STATE by 2 

TEXAS A&M – MIKE ELKO (1) vs. USC – LINCOLN RILEY (6): Edge – USC by 5 

CONNECTICUT – JIM MORA JR (6) vs. NORTH CAROLINA – FREDDIE KITCHENS (0): Edge – CONNECTICUT by 6

BOSTON COLLEGE – BILL O’BRIEN (0) vs. NEBRASKA – MATT RHULE (4): Edge – NEBRASKA by 4

LA LAFAYETTE – MICHAEL DESORMEAUX (2) vs. TCU – SONNY DYKES (5): Edge – TCU by 3 

IOWA STATE – MATT CAMPBELL (10) vs. MIAMI (FL) – MARIO CRISTOBAL (7): Edge – IOWA STATE by 3 

MIAMI (OH) – CHUCK MARTIN (5) vs. COLORADO STATE – JAY NORVELL (4): Edge – MIAMI (OH) by 1

EAST CAROLINA – BLAKE HARRELL (0) vs. NC STATE – DAVE DOEREN (9): Edge – NC STATE by 9 

BYU – KALANI SITAKE (6) vs. COLORADO – DEION SANDERS (0): Edge – BYU by 6

MARSHALL – TELLY LOCKETTE (0) vs. ARMY – JEFF MONKEN (5): Edge – ARMY by 5

IOWA – KIRK FERENTZ (20) vs. MISSOURI – ELIAH DRINKWITZ (3): Edge – IOWA by 17

ALABAMA – KALEN DEBOER (3) vs. MICHIGAN – SHERRONE MOORE (0): Edge – ALABAMA by 3

LOUISVILLE – JEFF BROHM (7) vs. WASHINGTON – JEDD FISCH (1): Edge – LOUISVILLE by 6

SOUTH CAROLINA – SHANE BEAMER (2) vs. ILLINOIS – BRET BIELEMA (10): Edge – ILLINOIS by 8

BAYLOR – DAVE ARANDA (2) vs. LSU – BRIAN KELLY (15): Edge – LSU by 13 

DUKE – MANNY DIAZ (2) vs. OLE MISS – LANE KIFFIN (7): Edge – OLE MISS by 5

NORTH TEXAS – ERIC MORRIS (0) vs. TEXAS STATE – GJ KINNE (1): Edge – TEXAS STATE by 1 

MINNESOTA – PJ FLECK (8) vs. VIRGINIA TECH – BRENT PRY (1): Edge – MINNESOTA by 7 

BUFFALO – PETE LEMBO (2) vs. LIBERTY – JAMEY CHADWELL (3): Edge – LIBERTY by 1

Digging further on the general experience difference, in bowl games since 2016 that have a difference of at least 10 bowl games coached between the opposing head coaches, the more experienced one is 41-24 SU and 41-23-1 ATS (64%). This angle also went belly up last season though, with a 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS record. Looking at this year’s lineup, here are the six games that qualify so far: 

OHIO U – BRIAN SMITH (0) vs. JACKSONVILLE STATE – RICH RODRIGUEZ (12): Edge – JACKSONVILLE STATE by 12 

SMU – RHETT LASHLEE (2) vs. PENN STATE – JAMES FRANKLIN (12): Edge – PENN ST by 10 

CLEMSON – DABO SWINNEY (19) vs. TEXAS – STEVE SARKISIAN (6): Edge – CLEMSON by 13 

SOUTH FLORIDA – ALEX GOLESH (1) vs. SAN JOSE STATE – KEN NIUMATALOLO (11): Edge – SAN JOSE STATE by 10

IOWA – KIRK FERENTZ (20) vs. MISSOURI – ELIAH DRINKWITZ (3): Edge – IOWA by 17

BAYLOR – DAVE ARANDA (2) vs. LSU – BRIAN KELLY (15): Edge – LSU by 13

First-time bowl game head coaches have really struggled over the last eight seasons, going 38-55 SU and 37-55-1 ATS (40.2%) vs. non-first-year coaches! These are the 17 bowl games involving first-time head coaches in the 2024 lineup, nearly twice as many as last year: 

S ALABAMA – MAJOR APPLEWHITE (3) vs. W MICHIGAN – LANCE TAYLOR (0): Edge – S ALABAMA by 3 

MEMPHIS – RYAN SILVERFIELD (4) vs. WEST VIRGINIA – CHAD SCOTT (0): Edge – MEMPHIS by 4

W KENTUCKY – TYSON HELTON (5) vs. JAMES MADISON – BOB CHESNEY (0): Edge – W KENTUCKY by 5 

CALIFORNIA – JUSTIN WILCOX (3) vs. UNLV – DEL ALEXANDER (0): Edge – CALIFORNIA by 3

GA SOUTHERN – CLAY HELTON (7) vs. SAM HOUSTON STATE – BRAD CORNELSEN (0): Edge – GA SOUTHERN by 7 

OHIO U – BRIAN SMITH (0) vs. JACKSONVILLE STATE – RCH RODRIGUEZ (12): Edge – JACKSONVILLE ST by 12

INDIANA – CURT CIGNETTI (0) vs. NOTRE DAME – MARCUS FREEMAN (3): Edge – NOTRE DAME by 3 

GEORGIA TECH – BRENT KEY (1) vs. VANDERBILT – CLARK LEA (0): Edge – GEORGIA TECH by 1 

OKLAHOMA – BRENT VENABLES (2) vs. NAVY – BRIAN NEWBERRY (0): Edge – OKLAHOMA by 2

SYRACUSE – FRAN BROWN (0) vs. WASHINGTON STATE – JAKE DICKERT (2): Edge – WASHINGTON STATE by 2

CONNECTICUT – JIM MORA JR (6) vs. NORTH CAROLINA – FREDDIE KITCHENS (0): Edge – CONNECTICUT by 6

BOSTON COLLEGE – BILL O’BRIEN (0) vs. NEBRASKA – MATT RHULE (4): Edge – NEBRASKA by 4 

EAST CAROLINA – BLAKE HARRELL (0) vs. NC STATE – DAVE DOEREN (9): Edge – NC STATE by 9 

BYU – KALANI SITAKE (6) vs. COLORADO – DEION SANDERS (0): Edge – BYU by 6 

MARSHALL – TELLY LOCKETTE (0) vs. ARMY – JEFF MONKEN (5): Edge – ARMY by 5 

ALABAMA – KALEN DEBOER (3) vs. MICHIGAN – SHERRONE MOORE (0): Edge – ALABAMA by 3 

NORTH TEXAS – ERIC MORRIS (0) vs. TEXAS STATE – GJ KINNE (1): Edge – TEXAS STATE by 1

More on the rookie head coaches. When matched up against an opposing coach that has been in at least 10 bowl games, the rookie record over the last eight years slips to an abysmal 8-19 SU and 6-21 ATS (22.2%)! There were three games last year that met the criteria and the rookie coaches were 1-2 SU and ATS. Obviously, this game will need to be considered solely by that angle:

OHIO U – BRIAN SMITH (0) vs. JACKSONVILLE STATE – RICH RODRIGUEZ (12): Edge – JACKSONVILLE STATE by 12 

Finally, it is in games that are expected to be tight that the coaching difference really stands out, as first-time bowl coaches are just 15-27 SU and 13-27-2 ATS (32.5%) over the last nine seasons in games with lines in the +4.5 to -4.5 range. The final record last year was 1-3 SU and ATS after a pair of games left the close line range zone in the time from opening to kickoff. These are the games that qualify on this powerful angle. However, keep an eye on the line moves for final qualification, as three games I cited last year eventually slipped out of the necessary line range:

MEMPHIS – RYAN SILVERFIELD (4) vs. WEST VIRGINIA – CHAD SCOTT  (0): Edge – MEMPHIS by 4 

CALIFORNIA – JUSTIN WILCOX (3) vs. UNLV – DEL ALEXANDER (0): Edge – CALIFORNIA by 3 

OHIO U – BRIAN SMITH (0) vs. JACKSONVILLE STATE – RICH RODRIGUEZ (12): Edge – JACKSONVILLE STATE by 12 

GEORGIA TECH – BRENT KEY (1) vs. VANDERBILT – CLARK LEA (0): Edge – GEORGIA TECH by 1

CONNECTICUT – JIM MORA JR. (6) vs. NORTH CAROLINA – FREDDIE KITCHENS (0): Edge – CONNECTICUT by 6 

BOSTON COLLEGE – BILL O’BRIEN (0) vs. NEBRASKA – MATT RHULE (4): Edge – NEBRASKA by 4 

BYU – KALANI SITAKE (6) vs. COLORADO – DEION SANDERS (0): Edge – BYU by 6 

Having found these potent new angles, the coaching analysis is nearly complete. However, I’m sure some readers will want to know which coaches have fared best or worst in recent bowl games. 

As usual, the coaches whose teams perform better in bowl games is much longer than those who don’t. Otherwise, they probably wouldn’t be coaching still. Here’s a quick bullet point list of the success stories:

–  Kirk Ferentz (Iowa) has a record of 13-7-1 ATS overall in bowl games, including 4-1-1 ATS in the last six

–  PJ Fleck (Minnesota) is on a five-game bowl winning streak, the closest win by 6 points

–  Tyson Helton (WKU) has put together a three-game SU and ATS bowl winning streak, with his team scoring 47 PPG

–  Arkansas State’s 21-19 loss to NIU last year snuffed out a four-game SU and ATS bowl winning streak for Butch Jones

–  Though just 1-4 outright, Chuck Martin (Miami (OH)) owns a 5-0 ATS mark in bowl games

–  Greg Schiano (Rutgers) boasts a 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS career bowl coaching mark

– Ryan Silverfield (Memphis) has won his last three bowl games SU and ATS, all by double-digit margins

–  Kirby Smart (Georgia) is 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in 11 career bowl games

Now, the underperformers:

–  Major Applewhite (South Alabama) is on a three-game SU and ATS bowl losing skid

–  Jason Candle (Toledo) is 1-5 SU and ATS in six prior bowl games

–  Mario Cristobal (Miami (FL)) has lost three consecutive bowl games SU and ATS, outscored 112-73

–  Dave Doeren (NC State) has lost four straight bowl games outright while going 1-3 ATS

– Clay Helton (GA Southern) is riding bowl game losing streaks of four games SU and six games ATS currently

–  Jim Mora Jr. (UConn) has lost his last three bowl games SU and ATS as a head coach

–  Ken Niumatalolo (San Jose State) boasts a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS mark in his last six bowl games

–  Although 6-3 SU in the last nine, Jacksonville State’s Rich Rodriguez is 2-10 ATS in 12 career bowl games

–  Steve Sarkisian (Texas) is on a 1-4 SU and ATS bowl game skid

–  Dabo Swinney (Clemson) is 1-4 ATS in the last five bowl games after a 10-1 ATS surge prior

Notable Over the total trends with head coaches

–  Jeff Brohm (Louisville) has gone Over the total in all seven prior bowl games, with those producing 81.7 PPG on average

–  All five of Sonny Dykes’ bowl games with TCU have gone Over the total. His team has allowed 45.8 PPG

–  James Franklin’s tenure with Penn State has seen Overs go 10-2 on totals

–  All three of Marcus Freeman’s bowl games with Notre Dame went Over the total

–  The last four Western Kentucky bowl games with Tyson Helton at the helm went Over the total

– The last four Lincoln Riley (USC) coached bowl games went Over the total, producing 81.8 PPG

–  Rich Rodriguez (Jacksonville State) has gone Over the total in his last 10 bowl games

Notable Under the total trends with head coaches

– Bret Bielema (Illinois) has a 7-2 Under the total record in nine career bowl games

– Prior to last year’s Liberty Bowl game Over, Matt Campbell (Iowa State) had gone Under the total in his prior seven bowl contests

–  Dave Doeren’s NC State team has gone Under the total in three straight bowl games, scoring 17.3 PPG

–  Eliah Drinkwitz’s Missouri teams have gone Under the total in all three prior bowl games, total point production 35.7 PPG

–  The 38-25 win for Ole Miss over PSU last year snapped a five-game Under the total streak for HC Lane Kiffin

–  Chuck Martin (Miami (OH)) boasts a 5-0 Under the total record in bowl games

While this might be understating the obvious, the coach factor must be considered when wagering bowl games, and in many cases, it’s not the media-driven storylines that prevail.

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