College Football Bowl Game Betting Systems:

I continue the series on my Seven Motivational Factors for handicapping the college bowl games with a look at factor #3 – Excitement level for the game. For a deeper explanation as to the reasoning behind the entire list, see the original released article from Monday 12/9

I will be releasing each of the factors in separate pieces over the next weeks or so, with the order coming in what can be immediately taken as applicable to those things that will develop in the days/weeks before kickoffs.

 

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No. 1 – Personnel Disruptions

Nos. 2, 4 – Coming soon

No. 3 – This article

No. 5 – Head Coaching Importance

No. 6 – Regional or Home-Field Advantage

No. 7 – Performance Relative to Regular Season Expectations  

Excitement Level for the Game 

It’s natural for athletes at different levels to gear up more for some games or opponents than others. This point is exacerbated in bowl games, as quite frankly, some teams are happy to be there, and others are disappointed. Teams playing in a bowl game for the first time, or the first time in many years, will naturally be more excited than those who perhaps underperformed this season or are going to a bowl game locale that is below their normal standards. While it is impossible to quantify this excitement level, let me assure you that if you don’t consider this factor, all the stats in the world are no good to you.

Over the last six years, I have listed games in this exact location in which I thought there was a clear excitement level difference for the game. I was 30-26 ATS in these, including 6-5 ATS a year ago. This is not overwhelming success by any means but better than losing. Remember, this is just my opinion; it is not the gospel, and it’s quite possible you see something different from what I do. Here is a list of potential games that could be defined by one team’s mindset as I analyze the games from the outside. Again, whether or not a team really “shows up” to play is usually the difference in winning and covering.

By the way, I typically never include any playoff-level games or the much higher-profile bowl games, as unless there is a glaring situation like Florida State last year for the Orange Bowl, it is assumed that the teams playing are excited about the opportunity they’ve been given. 

– Teams like MEMPHIS that play in Group of 5 conferences typically relish the chance to take on Power 4 teams, especially in bowl games with more eyes on them. Don’t think for a second that the Tigers are going to take pity on a West Virginia team playing with an interim coach and a list of players in the transfer portal that is longer or longer than anyone. On top of that, WVU didn’t beat a single team playing in a bowl game this season in six tries. 

–  CALIFORNIA hasn’t won a bowl game in five years. In what was supposed to be a challenging transitional season in the ACC this year, the Golden Bears secured a bowl bid right down the road from campus at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles and take on a UNLV team that seems a bit disinterested after having to move on from a head coach that had the two best back-to-back seasons in program history. 

– The SAM HOUSTON STATE football program has to feel a lot like James Madison did last year. In just its second year of FBS level competition, the Bearkats unexpectedly worked their way into bowl position by winning nine games, including three in upset fashion. Unfortunately, just like the Dukes a year ago, a bigger program swooped in and poached their head coach, KC Keeler, away. Oh, by the way, JMU badly underperformed afterward in their 2023 bowl game, losing to Air Force 31-21.

– I was one of the few people out there that I saw forecasting a better season for FLORIDA in 2024 than the oddsmakers were. The Gators had a win total prop of 4.5 at the outset. However, in my offseason studies, I found that head coach Billy Napier had made some nice scores on the recruiting/transfer trail and I felt that year 3 could be the time that he was able to put it together. He did, even despite battling through injury problems. His team played with real heart, too, beating LSU and Ole Miss in back-to-back weeks late to reach this point. For the Gasparilla Bowl, the opponent is a Tulane team that embarrassed itself in back-to-back weeks and will be without their star QB Darian Mensah, who left for the transfer portal. Florida has a chance to prove it is back. 

– SAN JOSE STATE plays in Hawaii for the second straight bowl season and while some people might feel that is a disappointment, in last year’s Hawaii Bowl, the Spartans were dealing with a coach departure situation and never really showed up, losing to Coastal Carolina 24-14. For 2024, SJSU’s coaching situation is in great shape, with Ken Niumatalolo at the helm long term, and he typically gets his teams ready for bowl games as he is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in his last six. On top of that, his team is taking on a South Florida team that underperformed in 2024, going 6-6 while failing to record a win over an eventual bowl team in five tries. 

– I love bowl situations where it seems like one of the teams is trying hard to establish a new culture and has the talent to do so. TEXAS A&M has failed to live up to expectations for much of the last decade or so despite amazing recruiting efforts, but new head coach Mike Elko had the Aggies playing for a spot in the SEC title game in the season finale. I’m sure much of his inspiration for the team in getting ready for its Las Vegas Bowl matchup with USC will be in using the contest as a springboard for 2025. 

– If would be easy to think that Connecticut, who hasn’t won a bowl game since 2009 would be super hyped for the opportunity to take on an ACC team in the Fenway Bowl. However, looking at things from the NORTH CAROLINA perspective, how seriously do you think Tarheels’ players are going to take this game in what will amount to an unofficial tryout for future head coach Bill Belichick? Not to mention that his legendary NFL career was forged in the Boston area. UNC has the better talent by far. If focused, they could roll.

– Although NEBRASKA followers were probably looking for bigger and better in terms of bowl games when forecasting the 2024 season, for the Cornhuskers to even be playing in a game like the Pinstripe Bowl is an accomplishment. They haven’t played in any bowl game since 2016 and haven’t won one since a year prior to that. Playing in bowl games is why the program hired head coach Matt Rhule, and while he was able to achieve the goal in his second season, I think heading into year 3, he will stress the importance of getting a head start with a big performance in the Bronx. 

– When you think of ultimate bowl destinations for teams from Power 4 conferences, you think of Florida, Pasadena, CA., and the like. Albuquerque, New Mexico is far down on the list. TCU becomes the first power conference team to play in the New Mexico Bowl since 2015, when Arizona did. Interestingly, the Pac 12 had teams in it three times from 2012-15, and those teams went 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. The smaller conference team was always motivated to prove it could play with the big boys. Do you think LA LAFAYETTE will show that same motivation in its first-ever bowl contests against a bigger conference foe? Oh, and by the way, TCU QB Josh Hoover didn’t feel the game was important enough to stick around for. 

– Do you take QB Cam Ward of MIAMI at his word? Apparently, it was on a Snapchat session with Shadeur Sanders of Colorado that he announced his intentions to play in the Pop-Tarts Bowl game against Iowa State and that he intends to put on a show. Obviously, that is good news for the Hurricanes and should make them as close to normal as we’ve watched them for the ’24 season. At one point, this was arguably one of the best teams in the country, for sure on offense. Ward’s commitment is “different” for the Hurricanes, giving them a significant motivational boost. Is opponent Iowa State ready for that smoke after getting destroyed in the Big 12 title game?

– Head coach Deion Sanders has put the COLORADO football program back on the map, and he did it against all odds, with the media and football experts pretty much stacked against him. Now granted, he might have earned some of the scorn looking back at the brashness with the way he took over in season one in 2023. However, in 2024, the Buffaloes simply went about their business and won football games and respect because of it. Coach Prime even established that opting out of bowl games is not what will happen under his watch, even for his son, QB Shedeur, the presumptive top pick in the next NFL draft, and CB Travis Hunter, the probable Heisman Trophy winner. It would be quite a surprise if this team didn’t come to play against BYU at the Alamo Bowl. 

– You don’t see too many in-state proving ground types of games in bowl season, especially those not played in the teams’ backyard. Well, the First Responder Bowl played in Dallas matches North Texas and TEXAS STATE. If you ask me, one of the teams proved to be far superior this season and seems to be taking a much better interest in playing the game. That would be the Bobcats, who beat three bowl game teams this season in going 7-5. If you recall, they put together a very focused effort in crushing Rice a year ago in this same game, 45-21. The Mean Green, meanwhile, finished 6-6 after going 1-5 SU & ATS in their final six games. The defense allowed 34.5 PPG, and the one player capable of keeping them competitive in this contest, QB Chandler Morris, has opted for the transfer portal. 

I’m sure you can come up with some other examples of games with reasons to question a team’s motivation, but these are the ones I thought of off the bat, recalling my knowledge of past bowl seasons.

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