College Football Bowl Game Betting Systems:

If you’ve been with VSiN in any bowl season since our initial Bowl Guide back in 2017, you’re probably well familiar with my annual piece detailing my Motivational Factors Checklist that I incorporate for handicapping each and every bowl game. This checklist is essentially the foundation for my bowl handicapping. I believe that you have to have a handle on these variables for each game, or you won’t be successful. Sure, you may win some games by going against the logic, but over the course of the season, it’s unlikely. 

I will be releasing each of the SEVEN factors in separate pieces over the next couple weeks or so, with the order coming in what can be immediately taken as applicable to those things that will develop in the days/weeks before kickoffs.

 

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Seven College Football Bowl Game Betting Systems:

Nos. 1-5 – Coming soon

No. 6 – Regional or Home-Field Advantage

No. 7 – Performance Relative to Regular Season Expectations (this article)

Performance Relative to Regular Season Expectations

This is System No. 7 on my list.

I added Summary of Season to the mix in 2019. Quite simply, it analyzes whether a team under- or overperformed expectations for the season. The thought is that teams that have played better than expected are typically more galvanized than those that haven’t. This has to be an obvious factor, though. For instance, if Team A was picked third in its conference and finished second, that isn’t an obvious outperform situation. However, if a team was picked first and finished fourth, or picked last and reached a bowl game, those are more dramatic situations. 

Here are some teams that did much better or worse than expected, or performed far differently than last season:

Better than expected (teams I cited last year were 7-6 ATS after 27-19-1 ATS in 2019-2022)

ARIZONA STATE — The Sun Devils went 11-2 SU and ATS and won the Big 12 title in its first season in the conference. They are playoff-bound with a bye and will play in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on January 1.

INDIANA — The Hoosiers made an absolute hiring splash by luring coach Curt Cignetti from James Madison. His first season in Bloomington was a rousing success, as his team, with its many veteran transfer players, won 11 games en route to a playoff date with Notre Dame.

BYU — The Cougars had a win total prop of 4.5 at DraftKings before the season, yet went on to win 10 games, pulling four outright upsets, including over playoff-bound SMU.

ARMY — Head coach Jeff Monken’s team didn’t hit the transfer portal, didn’t shower its players with NIL money and didn’t bring in any five-star recruits. The Knights just did their business, winning 11 games and an American Conference title despite being projected to win six games by DK at the start of the season.

SAM HOUSTON STATE — In just their second year of FBS football, the Bearkats went from 3-9 to 9-3. Unfortunately, since the regular season concluded, head coach K.C. Keeler has moved on and several players have followed, entering the transfer portal.

ILLINOIS — The Illini were generally picked to finish in the bottom third of the Big Ten this season. That didn’t stop Bret Bielema’s team from winning nine games and rewarding bettors with an 8-3-1 ATS mark.

MARSHALL — Here’s another team that will be going into a bowl game without its head coach and starting quarterback, who have both left for other opportunities. They owe those opportunities to a season of massive overachievement as the Herd finished 10-3 with a Sun Belt title and a nation’s-best 11-1-1 ATS record.

DUKE — New head coach Manny Diaz and the Blue Devils had tempered expectations because of several key departures from last year’s big eight-win roster. They were even better in 2024, however, going 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS. However, they will be minus opt-out QB Maalik Murphy in the Gator Bowl versus Ole Miss.

SOUTH CAROLINA — Coach Shane Beamer has his team on an upward track after finishing 9-3 SU and ATS against a DK win prop of 5.5. His team also seems to be relishing the chance to compete in the Citrus Bowl versus Illinois on New Year’s Eve.

COLORADO — Coach Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes faced outrageous expectations heading into the 2023 season, perhaps of their own making. With the prognosticators more pessimistic in 2024 (4.5 wins on DraftKings), Colorado cruised to a nine-win season behind a probable Heisman Trophy winner in wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter.

CONNECTICUT — The Huskies enjoyed their first eight-win season since 2010, beating their DraftKings win prop by 3.5.

OHIO — The Bobcats matched last year’s win total of 10, so it doesn’t seem like a big deal, but after losing talented QB Kurtis Rourke to Indiana and bringing back just six starters, the aspirations were to merely get a bowl bid, not a MAC title.

VANDERBILT — The Commodores are playing in their first bowl game since 2018 despite finishing 2-10 a year ago. Transfer QB Diego Pavia brought an energy to the program that helped Vandy secure three double-digit dog upsets, including, of course, a 40-35 win over Alabama.

SMU — Although I wouldn’t describe the outlook as pessimistic, as a win total of eight was reasonable, most bettors and football experts thought the Mustangs would meet their match in the big bad ACC. Not so. SMU won 11 games and finds itself in the CFP.

BUFFALO — New coach Pete Lembo took a 3-9 downward-trending Buffalo team and led it to an eight-win season and a trip to the Bahamas in January.

BAYLOR — The Bears were 3-9 last season and projected by DraftKings to not even reach bowl eligibility. Eight wins later, coach Dave Aranda’s team has an intriguing date with LSU in the Texas Bowl.

Worse than expected (teams I cited last year were unfortunately 5-1 ATS after going 4-8 ATS the prior two seasons)

NC STATE — The Wolfpack were expected to be a fringe contender for the ACC title and a potential CFP spot. Instead, this veteran team had to deal with injuries to QB Grayson McCall and others and eventually stole a bowl bid by winning at North Carolina in the season finale.

LIBERTY — After playing in the Fiesta Bowl last year and bringing back many of its key players, including QB Kaidon Salter, the Flames were widely projected as the eventual Group of 5 rep in the CFP. Instead, they won just eight games against the country’s easiest schedule and went 3-8 ATS.

UTSA — The Roadrunners were the consensus favorite in the American Conference after going 32-9 the last three seasons, yet they had to rally from a 3-5 start just to reach .500.

FRESNO STATE — The Bulldogs were a three-win drop team from a year ago, finishing 6-6 against an eight-win prop at DraftKings. Now, they will be without starting QB Mikey Keene for the bowl game.

MICHIGAN — Don’t count me among this group as I did see it coming, thanks to the zero stability score at the start of the season, but those experts setting the odds didn’t see a major drop coming for Michigan after the national title season. The win total was set at nine. The Wolverines needed a massive upset at Ohio State to get to 7-5.

VIRGINIA TECH — The Hokies brought back the most experience in the country this season and were coming off a finish that seemed to indicate that coach Brent Pry’s team had turned a corner. A maddening 6-6 campaign seems to have erased all of that.

KANSAS STATE — This seemed like a season for Kansas State to strike it big in what was looked at as a weakened and transitioning Big 12. The Wildcats lost outright three times as 7+ point favorites and finished 8-4.

NORTH CAROLINA — While the Tar Heels finished just 1.5 wins below their DK win prop, going 6-6, the ACC was supposedly wide open for the taking. All hopes for UNC contending were lost on opening night with the season-ending injury to QB Max Johnson.

USC — Lincoln Riley’s team was supposed to show how his brand of football could take over the Big Ten. It went essentially the opposite as the Trojans’ best conference win in a 6-6 season was arguably over Rutgers.

MISSOURI — While a 9-3 mark in the SEC is nothing to discount, a very experienced Missouri team coming back from an 11-2 campaign with most of its key players in place never really clicked. The Tigers lost all three of their key games against one of the conference’s weakest slates.

Digging further into the season analysis, here are some betting systems I was able to uncover by looking at the seasonal records of teams headed into the bowl games.

System #1: Teams that won 0-3 games (25% or less) the prior season and qualified for a bowl game the next are 39-13-2 ATS (75%) over the last nine bowl seasons when matched against a team not in that situation. Last year these teams were 5-1 ATS.

Qualifying teams for 2024: ARIZONA STATE, BAYLOR, BUFFALO, CONNECTICUT, EAST CAROLINA, INDIANA, PITTSBURGH, SAM HOUSTON STATE, VANDERBILT

System #2: Teams that improved by 6+ wins (or by 50%+) from the prior regular season are on an 18-7 ATS (70.8%) run in bowl games as underdogs after going 5-1 ATS in the last two seasons. Only Northwestern, which upset Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl, qualified last year.

Qualifying teams for 2024: SAM HOUSTON STATE

Note: ARIZONA STATE is a likely qualifier in the Peach Bowl and INDIANA is a CFP first-round underdog

System #3: Teams that finished .500 by winning their final regular-season game to qualify for a bowl are on a 25-16 ATS (58.1%) surge as underdogs to +.500 opponents. These teams were 3-3 ATS last year. Watch lines closely as two of the teams that qualified as underdogs on opening lines wound up being favored at kickoff.

Qualifying teams for 2024: NORTH TEXAS, VIRGINIA TECH

Regarding teams’ ATS records on the season, it seems that bettors do not want to put too much focus on a team’s success that season. It is actually a better fade factor, as teams with worse ATS records have proven to be better wagers, going over 52% in bowl games since 1992. Going even further…

System #4: Teams that are 25%+ worse against the spread on the season are 49-28 ATS (63.6%) over the last 11 seasons in bowl games after an impressive 6-2 ATS performance in 2023-24.

Qualifying teams for 2024: TEXAS A&M, NORTH CAROLINA, NC STATE, ARMY, LSU, VIRGINIA TECH, LIBERTY

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