College Football Bowl Game Betting Systems:
I wrap up the series on my Seven Motivational Factors for handicapping the college football bowl games with a look at factor #4 – Point Spread Motivation. For a deeper explanation of the reasoning behind my list, see the original released article from Monday 12/9.
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I have released each of the factors in separate pieces over the last week or so. They are linked below and can also be found in the VSiN College Football Bowl Game Hub along with several other features for bowl season.
No. 2 – Big Line/Total Movements
No. 3 – Excitement Level for the Game
No. 4 – Point Spread Motivation
No. 5 – Head Coaching Importance
No. 6 – Regional or Home-Field Advantage
No. 7 – Performance Relative to Regular Season Expectations
Point Spread Motivation
They may say otherwise, but don’t let the coaches and players fool you. They know the point spreads of the bowl games they are playing in. Especially in this day of expanded sports betting across the country. Even ESPN allows you to bet on its platform now. That said, athletes take a lot out of the respect they are getting heading into a bowl game. Nowhere is this respect level more clearly illustrated than in the point spread. Teams that feel slighted by this number tend to work harder to prepare and “prove everyone wrong” than those on the opposite side of the line. Those teams may perhaps take it easier in their preparation or, even worse, discount their opponent altogether. Be careful, though, it’s not always the motivation of being an underdog that drives a team. Sometimes favorites feel they aren’t getting enough respect. That can be just as powerful. Looking back at the last three bowl seasons, here are some examples of the logic I have put into building this factor:
In 2020, I was 3-1 in this factor #4, with one of my five calls getting canceled. The highlight game was Ohio State, which seemed to be fueled by the disrespect it was receiving from oddsmakers for its playoff semifinal matchup against Clemson.
In 2021, I picked a record-high 11 games in this section and went 7-4 ATS. Perhaps the showcase game was the Peach Bowl matchup between Michigan State and Pitt. Both teams earned New Year’s Six bowl bids, but apparently only the Spartans valued the spot, with some of Pitt’s best players opting out. Still, oddsmakers originally made Sparty only a 1.5-point favorite. MSU played the disrespected role well and won 31-21 as a 3.5-point closing-line favorite.
In 2022, I picked 10 games in this spot, and those teams went 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS, highlighted by big upset wins from Tennessee and Middle Tennessee State, teams I figured should have been favored.
Last year was the worst season I’ve had in several years with factor #4, going 4-6 SU and ATS, missing horribly on Tulane, Oklahoma and Florida State, although I wrote these quite early last year, and by the time the Orange Bowl came around, I had a Best Bet on Georgia versus the Seminoles.
For the last four seasons, I own a record of 22-13 ATS (62.9%) for Motivational Factor #4.
With that in mind, here are some point-spread scenarios that catch my eye for 2024-25. It’s a bit shorter list than the last couple of years, as I think oddsmakers have finally made the proper pre-release adjustments to account for the transfers and opt-outs:
COASTAL CAROLINA may not have had its best season in recent memory and has some injury/transfer portal issues to deal with in its bowl games versus UTSA, but like the Chanticleers, UTSA was 6-6 and as of Tuesday, Dec. 17 was sitting as a nine-point favorite in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. If you aren’t familiar, this game is played on the home field of Coastal Carolina. Yes, the 6-6 Roadrunners are nine-point road favorites in a bowl game. We’ll see what kind of pride Coastal Carolina has.
NC STATE could essentially be considered a “big brother” to East Carolina in terms of the hierarchy of North Carolina football. The teams meet in the Military Bowl in Annapolis, Md. The Wolfpack are just 6-6 but did have to beat North Carolina to get a bowl bid. That says at least a little about their hunger to extend the season. Are they playing an upstart ECU team off a huge season? Not exactly. The Pirates were just 7-5, with their only win over a bowl team coming against 6-6 UTSA. Should NC State be upset that it is only a 5.5-point favorite?
ARMY’S reward for a significant season was a date with a pretty stout Marshall team that had the country’s best point spread record in 2024. Unfortunately, after a coach departure and a subsequent surge in transfer portal entrants, the Herd backed out of the Independence Bowl. To its credit, 5-7 Louisiana Tech stepped in. Should Army be disappointed? Will its effort reflect it? For any other team, I might say yes, but for a team of military men … I seriously doubt it. In fact, I almost pity the Bulldogs for having to match up with a focused Army team after the loss to Navy. If you need a reminder, the last time a team accepted a late bid after a drop was Rutgers in 2021, and that team got trounced 38-10 by Wake Forest in the Gator Bowl with a line similar to this game.
LOUISVILLE was a FAR better team than Washington this season, and even though QB Tyler Shough is opting out of the Sun Bowl to get ready for the NFL draft, the line for the game (-2.5) doesn’t do justice to the disparity in the strength of the teams. The Huskies lost all six road/neutral games this season, all against bowl teams, the last four by 14 points or more. My power ratings say they are 10.5 points worse than the Cardinals, who had impressive wins over Georgia Tech and Clemson, and near-misses against Notre Dame and Miami. QB or not, this line should be regarded by coach Jeff Brohm’s team as disrespectful.
Would you have believed it if I told you at the start of the season that OLE MISS would only be a 14.5-point favorite over Duke in a bowl game? The teams were probably separated by about 20 points in most experts’ power ratings. Well, guess what, despite an unexpectedly good season from the Blue Devils, they actually still are separated by that much, if not more. In fact, my power ratings say this line (-14.5) is underpriced by about nine points, as it sounds like Rebels’ QB Jaxson Dart is excited about playing while Duke QB Maalik Murphy has entered the transfer portal. And if I know anything about Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, he will make sure his team covers the big spread.
