College Football Bowl Season Projections and Power Ratings

The future of bowl games is starting to float up into the air, as we had several teams decline the opportunity to play in one and the ongoing headaches with the coaching carousel and transfer portal make it tough to put a good product out there. Also, a lot of athletic departments, especially the smaller ones, have a hard time swallowing the cost of the travel, lodging, and all of the other logistics that go into it.

From a betting standpoint, these used to be a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. In some respects, they still can be, if you get ahead of market moves, get some inside intel, or your data set is just so strong and opponent-adjusted that you can take advantage. But, we’re getting key players opting out on game day or a couple days before the game that counterfeit some of the line equity of betting early.

The transfer portal doesn’t technically open until January 2, but it is not hard to find ways to talk with players, their families, or their representation. Some may have a commitment to play for their current program. Those who don’t may not want to risk injury and losing a bag from a new school.

And, of course, you get players who don’t want to get hurt before the NFL Draft. They’d rather take the tape that they have and then go get timed and graded at the scouting combine. That’s why I’m only going to throw out my bowl game lines as of now and not make all sorts of updates or anything like that.

You can see my end-of-season power ratings in my College Football Playoff Power Ratings article and my updates below. We’ve had some team-moving opt-outs already, like Byrum Brown at USF, though less-heralded Old Dominion starting QB Colton Joseph isn’t playing either. There are still head coaching gigs available and plenty of time for coordinators to move around. And more opt-outs to come.

Here are my bowl season power ratings adjustments:

Up: Utah +2 (Whittingham retirement), Houston +2 (Fritz factor)

Down: South Florida -6.5 (Brown opt-out), Old Dominion -2 (Joseph opt-out), Cincinnati -7 (Sorsby expected opt-out), Nebraska -2.5 (opt-outs), Michigan -3 (likely opt-outs (expect a lot), Moore firing), North Texas -5 (expect cluster opt-outs, coach to Ok State), Penn State -5 (expect cluster opt-outs), Louisville -3.5 (Bell, Brown both hurt), Washington State -3 (coach to Iowa State, expect opt-outs), Toledo -2 (Candle, opt-out potential), Southern Miss -4.5 (coach to Memphis; expect opt-outs), UConn -5 (Mora, opt-out potential)

My College Football Bowl Season Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number )