College Football Conference Championship Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

Another regular season has come and gone and college football conference championship week is upon us. With playoff spots and seeding still on the line, there is still a lot to be ironed out between now and selection Sunday to determine who’s in, who’s out, and who’s playing whom and where. My T Shoe Index has projections for all of this weekend’s title bouts, so let’s see what TSI says about these games and see if we can find some early betting value.

 

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Marshall vs. Louisiana (-5.5; 56.5)

The Sun Belt Championship game is a matchup of two teams that most people probably didn’t expect to be in this position in the preseason. Louisiana, three years removed from Billy Napier’s run with the Ragin’ Cajuns, didn’t figure to be much of a contender coming into the year, and Marshall fans have been calling for coach Charles Huff’s job since last year; however, these teams found a way. Louisiana is now in the top 35 in TSI, taking on a Marshall team that needed OT on the road at James Madison last week to make the championship, after falling down 17-0 early in the game. My dad has had season Marshall tickets my whole life, so I’m happy to see the Herd overachieve this season, but unfortunately for the Huntington natives, I think the buck stops here. Louisiana is better on both sides of the ball in TSI – 48th on offense and 64th on defense compared to Marshall’s 71st and 71st rating on each side, and I’m not sure what Marshall is going to have left in the tank after last week’s miraculous OT comeback win. TSI projects Louisiana -8 here, so I’m happy to lay under a touchdown with the Cajuns.

College Football Conference Championship Best Bet: Louisiana – 5.5 (Play to -6.5)

Clemson vs. SMU (-2; 56.5) 

It took Kyle McCord’s herculean effort to knock off Miami (FL) to get Clemson into this game again, but Dabo Swinney’s crew will take on ACC newcomer SMU, who impressively made the championship in its first year in the conference. SMU has been great since settling on a QB after a few games this year, while Clemson has been the epitome of a roller coaster team this year. TSI projects this game as a pick ‘em, but I’m more interested in the total. It opened 54.5 and has continued to climb, which TSI agrees with, projecting 61 points in this game. I could see either team winning, but regardless of that, I see there being points put up in what should feel like a playoff atmosphere. I’ll take the over up to 58.

College Football Conference Championship Best Bet: Over 56.5 (Play to 58)

Other title game projections from TSI (plus Army/Navy):

(i.e. Oregon is projected to win by 3, with a 59.3% win probability, a -145 moneyline and a total of 54)

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