College Football Conference Championship Betting Trends and Systems:
Another college football regular season has flown by, and we have arrived at championship week, with all nine FBS conferences playing their title games on Friday or Saturday. There are a few highly influential games that fans will be glued to, with some portion of the expanded CFP still left to be sorted out, in particular, the seeding.
Unlike recent seasons where a berth in college football’s “final four” version of the playoffs was on the line in several games, for many teams involved in games this weekend, they are already essentially locked in. Of course, nothing is ever set in stone, and the committee has been known to issue late surprises to upset the proceedings. And, also unlike last year, we are looking at two games with double-digit point spreads, which will put on the line an incredible four-year streak that has seen outright winners go 39-0 ATS in these games! It figures to be a great weekend of football, and if history is any indication, anything can and will happen.
Perhaps the most interesting storyline concerning this weekend’s nine games is that in two of the games, we have three Group of 5 powers trying to lock up the sole CFP bid to represent the smaller programs in the playoffs. Does this make them more worthy of laying points since they will need to “impress the committee?” Also, we have a 7-5 team in Duke playing for an ACC title and another bid in the CFP. Of course, the highlight of all the games figures to be the long-awaited matchup between Indiana and Ohio State in the Big Ten title tilt. The winner of that one will likely be the #1 seed in the CFP.
From a betting perspective, these conference championships are always huge draws, and besides the usual handicapping routines, studying the history of each game can give bettors an edge. As I mentioned just a bit earlier, all but two of this year’s games are expected to be competitive. Double-digit point spreads have become not that uncommon for these games. On this weekend last year, none of the nine games boasted double-digit lines. Of note, double-digit favorites have won and covered seven straight conference title games. However, in last year’s games, it was the underdogs that held the edge, going 6-3 SU and ATS. In fact, most of the games were decisive, with all but two of them being decided by 8 points or more. Moreover, the Group of 5 games were decided by an average of 27.6 PPG.
Are there any other trends, by conference or across overall systems, that bettors should be paying attention to? I’m about to reveal answers to those questions as I look at the betting history of each of the league’s championship games and how it might affect this year’s contests. The games are in board number order.
Friday, December 5, 2025
Kennesaw State (-2.5 / 58.5) at Jacksonville State
Conference USA Championship
Just three seasons ago, Jacksonville State was competing in the FCS level of college football. After going 9-4 in 2023 and winning the league title game a year ago, the Gamecocks are back to defend their Conference USA crown in 2025. This year’s opponent is Kennesaw State, another program new to the FCS level, having just wrapped up its second season in CUSA. Needless to say, this will be the first matchup between these two with any conference championship stakes attached. However, they did meet just three weeks ago in Jacksonville, the exact location as Friday’s contest, and JSU won that one 35-26 as a 3.5-point home underdog.
The Gamecocks are home dogs once again and are looking to extend a run of 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS by home dogs in conference title games. Both teams shared 7-1 records in league play, with KSU owning the better overall mark, 9-3 to 8-4. Jacksonville State Head Coach Charles Kelly, who took over for the departed Rich Rodriguez in the offseason, hopes his team can extend a four-game SU and ATS winning streak for hosts in this conference title game series.
Looking back even further, home teams are 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS in the game dating back to 2006. Interestingly, the line for this game marks the smallest point spread in the series since 2018, when UAB (+1) upended host MTSU 27-25. Six of the last seven CUSA title games have gone Over the total and winners in eight of the last 10 games have topped the 40-point plateau.
Troy at James Madison (-23.5 / 47.5)
Sun Belt Championship
While it appears that James Madison, slotted 25th in the latest CFP rankings and placed behind both CUSA title game combatants, will be left out of the final playoff bracket regardless of what happens on Friday night, the Dukes still have a chance to capture their first-ever Sun Belt title by beating Troy. The oddsmakers expect things to be easy for JMU, as they sit as 23.5-point favorites as I write this. That line would mark the biggest point spread in any conference title game in six years, and the biggest in the now seventh year of the SBC game.
The Dukes’ opponent in the battle for the SBC crown is a team familiar with the stage, as Troy won this game in both 2022 and 2023. After a down year in 2024, head coach Gerad Parker has quickly restored the program to championship standards by leading his team to an 8-4 finish this season. Meanwhile, James Madison has lost just once this season, 28-14 as a 15.5-point dog at Louisville.
These teams have not actually played one another since 2023, a 16-14 decision won by JMU on the road. Looking closer at the Sun Belt title game series, overall, home teams are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS. Favorites/underdogs as well as Over/Under on totals are split 3-3 in the previous six games. Interestingly, in each of the three prior times in which the favorite covered, Over the total was the result. In the underdog covers, Under is 3-0.
North Texas (-2.5 / 66.5) at Tulane
American Athletic Championship
By all appearances and assumptions, the American Athletic Championship Game for 2025 will find the winner headed to the CFP to represent the league for the first time. North Texas and Tulane were both 7-1 in league play and ranked 24th & 20th, respectively, in the latest CFP standings released Tuesday.
While the Mean Green are new to this stage, Tulane is all too familiar, playing in it for a fourth straight season. The Green Wave have lost the last two, however, and are looking to turn the tide here. They could be playing with an enhanced emotional state as well, as they learned this week that Head Coach Jon Sumrall would be moving on to Florida next season. That said, he is staying on for this game and any potential CFP run.
North Texas was the country’s top scoring team this season, putting up 46.8 PPG in their 11-1 campaign. The only loss came at the hands of South Florida, and they closed the season on a 6-0 SU and ATS run to get here. Tulane lost twice in the regular season, and the effort was otherwise checked, as evidenced by the 5-6-1 ATS mark. They failed to put back-to-back ATS wins together all season.
This, of course, is one of four championship games held at home fields, and always has been. Hosting the game has been of great benefit, with home teams having won seven of the last eight games while going 5-3 ATS. Regarding totals, Over had converted in five of seven games, including last year. Of note, this game boasts the highest total of any conference title game this season, at 66.5, and conference title game totals of 64 or higher have gone Under at a 21-11-1 (65.6%) rate since 2004. These teams did not meet in the regular season, but Tulane has beaten UNT in all three meetings since 2013.
UNLV at Boise State (-4 / 58.5)
Mountain West Championship
This will be the 13th annual Mountain West Conference Championship game, and the ninth one that has featured Boise State. In the previous eight, the Broncos are 5-3 SU but just 3-5 ATS. They will play as a 4-point home favorite in another rematch against UNLV. I use the term “another” in that this is the third straight MWC title matchup between these programs. Both teams got here by surviving a four-team 6-2 tiebreaker in the conference.
The Runnin’ Rebels, under first-year head coach Dan Mullen, shook off back-to-back losses to this same Boise State team and New Mexico, to win their final four games and finish 10-2. The Broncos, playing with second-string QB Max Cutforth, won their last two games to secure this spot. This upcoming Friday night matchup is not only a rematch of the last two MWC title games, but also one of those decisive earlier-season matchups in Boise, won handily by the Broncos, 56-31. That was the ninth straight win for Boise State, as well as the fifth straight cover in the head-to-head series, a hurdle Mullen is anxious for his team to get over.
In looking at the recent history of the MWC title game series, totals stand out most, as Under is 9-3 all-time, including last year’s 21-7 decision. Of late note for this game, it has been announced that BSU starting QB Maddux Madsen was set to return. The line didn’t move and is stuck on 4 points. You might be further surprised to know that as of Wednesday afternoon, 63% of the handle at DraftKings had come in on the underdog UNLV team.
Saturday, December 6, 2025
BYU vs. Texas Tech (-12.5 / 50.5)
Big 12 Championship
There aren’t a whole lot of teams that have been more dominant than Texas Tech has been over the last month or so, as the Red Raiders won their last five games SU and ATS while outscoring opponents 211-36. One of those wins was a 29-7 decision over the same BYU team they will be facing off with on Saturday for the Big 12 title.
It’s an intriguing contest between a pair of solid, physical teams that are both seeking their first-ever conference title game wins. In fact, neither has had the privilege of even being in this game before. Both teams are 11-1, with Texas Tech’s only setback coming at Arizona State in October. With as new as these teams are to championship games, it’s somewhat of a surprise to see oddsmakers lean heavily on the Red Raiders, as they are 12.5-point favorites at last check.
Most of the money (64% handle) at DraftKings, however, is on the underdog Cougars. Perhaps those bettors have not seen the conference title game trend showing that Power Five conference title game neutral-field double-digit favorites are on a 23-game SU winning streak and are 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in a span that dates back to 2008. Over the total is also 12-6 (66.7%) in the last 18 of those games. This is the first of the title games played on a neutral field, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, and in the eight prior games of the series, favorites own a 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS edge, although ASU won 45-19 a year ago as a 1.5-point underdog to Iowa State.
Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan (-2.5 / 43.5)
MAC Championship
The MAC title game is the second-longest series of any of the leagues, dating back to 1997, and it has been played at Ford Field in Detroit in every one since 2004. Although both Miami (OH) (7x) and Western Michigan (3x) have each made plenty of appearances in this game, this will be the first time they face one another with the conference crown on the line.
Miami (OH) was in this game a year ago and lost to Ohio U in ugly fashion, 38-3. The Redhawks will certainly be looking for a better showing this time around. They got here by rebounding from two early November losses to win their final two games behind backup QB Thomas Gotkowski, who took over after original starter DeQuan Finn left to get ready for the NFL draft. The Broncos won this 2016 game over that same Ohio program, but haven’t been back since. They were the only 7-1 team in MAC play this season and come into Saturday’s contest on a four-game winning streak. With HC Chuck Martin’s Miami team usually known for its defense, it should be noted that WMU allowed just 14.4 PPG in its final nine contests, turning around a 0-3 start to finish 8-4.
This will be a rematch contest from the regular season, with head coach Lance Taylor’s team looking to avenge that lone recent loss, a 26-17 decision in Oxford in October. Last year’s loss for the Redhawks dropped their mark in this game to 4-3 SU and ATS. WMU is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS here historically. It must be noted that this title game series has become a heavy underdog trending title contest, as dogs have won ATS at a 12-3-1 clip since 2008, including 8-1 ATS in the last nine. Under the total is also on a six-game winning streak, although the current number of 43.5 would match the lowest posted number in the history of the MAC title game, which came two years ago in Miami’s last title game win, a 23-14 decision over Toledo.
Georgia (-2.5 / 47.5) vs. Alabama
SEC Championship
Tell me if you’ve heard these words before: Georgia and Alabama will be meeting in Atlanta for the SEC championship. Whether it’s been here or in the CFP lately, fans have gotten their fair share of these national powerhouses squaring off in big games. In fact, since 2018, they have matched up five times in neutral-field contests, with Alabama up 3-2 SU but Georgia owning a 3-2 ATS edge. Underdogs have also gone 4-1 ATS in those games.
This week’s contest will have an obvious impact on the CFP rankings, as both teams are looking to lock up byes or at least home games in the upcoming playoff. Alabama would probably really have to dazzle to move up a lot from its #9 recent ranking, but the Tide have had an impressive season since losing the opener inexplicably at Florida State.
Many fans and bettors alike questioned the Bulldogs’ worthiness at times this season, especially after losing their first four games against the spread and eventually finishing 5-7 ATS. However, they have been customarily dominant defensively of late, yielding just 22 points in their final three games. Georgia is no stranger to this game, having gone 5-7 SU and 7-5 ATS in 12 prior appearances. This will be the fifth straight time they make the trip down from Athens, GA to Atlanta, GA.
Alabama knows this contest pretty well, too, playing in its 16th SEC title game as a program, and 10th since 2008. The Tide have won eight straight in this title game series while going 6-2 ATS. This game will be a rematch from the regular season, when Alabama handed Georgia its only loss in a tight 24-21 decision in Athens. In terms of overall trends, favorites have typically gotten the job done here, winning 17 of the last 23 SEC title games while going 11-11-1 ATS. However, underdogs are on a 4-1 ATS run currently. Over the total has converted in 16 of the last 22, but again, the opposite is on the current surge, with Unders the result in the most recent two.
Duke vs. Virginia (-3.5 / 57.5)
ACC Championship
The most surprising team to be playing on a championship stage on Saturday is undoubtedly Duke, who survived the chaos of the ACC this season to win a tiebreaker of five 6-2 teams. Mind you, the Blue Devils were 7-5 overall. Their opponent for Saturday is the league’s only 7-1 team, Virginia, who was picked in the bottom third of the league standings by any reputable prognosticator prior to the season. Yes, it is an interesting and unexpected matchup, one we are usually more anxious for on the basketball court.
That said, Virginia has a likely CFP spot on the line and needs a win to make that dream a reality. Duke wasn’t even ranked in the top 25 teams on Tuesday and thus is mostly playing for conference pride and a better bowl game destination. Besides being surprise game combatants THIS season, both of these teams have only been in this game once each in the 20-year history of the contest. Virginia was routed 62-17 by Clemson in 2019, and Duke took one on the chin, 45-7, versus Florida State in 2013.
With a three-game-better won-lost mark, the Cavaliers are the rightful favorites for Saturday and will be looking to extend a run of 12-1 SU and 7-1 ATS in this title game series. The lone loss for both of those trends came a year ago, however, when Clemson (+2.5) upended SMU 34-31. If you’re wondering, yes, these teams did meet just a few weeks ago in Durham, with Virginia (+5.5) pulling the 34-17 upset. If you consider home field advantage to be 3 points, it’s interesting that we’ve seen a 6-point line swing since for this one. Overall, Virginia has dominated the recent head-to-head set, going 9-1 ATS in the last 10. If totals are your wager of choice, note that six of the last eight ACC title tilts have gone Under the total.
Indiana vs. Ohio State (-4.5 / 48.5)
Big Ten Championship
In bowl games, the Rose Bowl has been referred to by the late broadcaster Keith Jackson as the “Grandaddy of them All.” Well, if this year’s conference championship games were ranked, this Big Ten title contest would earn that honor, as #1 & #2 square off for not only a conference championship, but the overall #1 seed in the upcoming CFP. Both teams are unbeaten at 12-0, with Ohio State boasting a 10-2 ATS mark as compared to 7-5 for Indiana.
The Buckeyes outscore opponents by 29.2 PPG; the Hoosiers own a point differential of +33.4 PPG. Both teams are dominant, and it feels as if they have been on a collision course since September. The game needs no further hyping, as it is a must-watch matchup, and FOX gets the rights for the 8 p.m. ET start. Both of the teams boast elite quarterbacks, with Julian Sayin (OSU) and Fernando Mendoza (IU) both leading candidates for the Heisman Trophy. They also have tremendous playmakers on offense as well as dominant defenses.
Obviously, this is not new space for the Buckeyes, as they’ve played in the Big Ten title game six times before, going 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS. However, they haven’t been here since 2020. Indiana is making its first-ever appearance in the game, and since it’s being played in Indianapolis, they should have a very strong following. At last check, tickets were priced around $550 to get in the door. It is that big of a game.
With Ohio State having just knocked off Michigan last week, and being defending national champions, head coach Ryan Day’s team is sitting as 4.5-point favorites, with 87% of the handle, and 73% of the bets at DraftKings on that side of the ledger. The line is noteworthy, since favorites are on winning streaks of eight games outright and four games ATS in this contest. Totals have leaned Over of late, 3-1 in the last four.
Conference Championship Game Betting Systems
In looking back at all of the conference championship game logs since their inception in 1992, I was able to come up with the following five betting systems that have developed:
OUTRIGHT WINNERS have won their last 39 games against the spread!
2025 Qualifying Teams: ALL outright winners ATS
Group of 5 conference title game neutral field dogs are 13-14 SU but 19-7-1 ATS (73.1%) in their last 27 tries, including 15-4-1 ATS on lines of 3 points or more.
2025 Qualifying Teams: MIAMI (OH) (+2.5) vs. Western Michigan
Conference title game favorites in the -7.5 to -11.5 range are a perfect 25-0 SU all-time and are 15-7 ATS (68.2%) in their last 22 tries.
2025 Qualifying Teams: NONE – although Texas Tech (-12.5) could slip into that line range with late movement
Point spreads of -3.5 or less find the greatest percentage of underdog covers in conference title games historically, as teams getting +3.5 points or fewer are on a 26-15 ATS run since 2008.
2025 Qualifying Teams: JACKSONVILLE STATE (+2.5) vs. Kennesaw State, TULANE (+2.5) vs. North Texas, MIAMI (OH) (+2.5) vs. Western Michigan, ALABAMA (+2.5) vs. Georgia, DUKE (+3.5) vs. Virginia
There have been eight home underdogs in conference title games since 2009, and these teams boast a record of 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS (87.5%).
2025 Qualifying Teams: JACKSONVILLE STATE (+2.5) vs. Kennesaw State, TULANE (+2.5) vs. North Texas
Power 5 conference title game neutral field favorites are on a 28-9 SU and 23-14 ATS (62.2%) run but did go 1-3 SU and ATS in 2024.
2025 Qualifying Teams: TEXAS TECH (-12.5) vs. BYU, GEORGIA (-2.5) vs. Alabama, VIRGINIA (-3.5) vs. Duke, OHIO STATE (-4.5) vs. Indiana
Power 5 conference title game neutral field double-digit favorites are on a 23-game SU winning streak and are 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in a span that dates back to 2008. Over the total is also 12-6 (66.7%) in the last 18 of those games.
2025 Qualifying Teams/Totals: TEXAS TECH (-12.5) vs. BYU and OVER 50.5 in BYU-Texas Tech
Conference title game totals of less than 50 have gone Over at a 24-13 (64.9%) rate since 2003. Over the last two years they are just 1-4 Over however.
2025 Qualifying Games: OVER 47.5 in Troy-James Madison, OVER 43.5 in Miami (OH)-Western Michigan, OVER 47.5 in Georgia-Alabama, OVER 48.5 in Indiana-Ohio State
Conference title game totals of 64 or higher have gone Under at a 21-11-1 (65.6%) rate since 2004.
2025 Qualifying Games: UNDER 66.5 in North Texas-Tulane
