College football extreme stat next-game betting systems for 2023
I’ve always believed that one of the best ways to make consistent profits in college football betting, and any other sport for that matter, is through the use of systems. These are different than trends in that trends tend to be team specific, thus shorter-lived and riskier to follow. Systems are nationwide, allowing similar teams from different seasons to fit into certain fundamental angles that have provided reliable predictability.
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We all know that nothing in sports betting is a lock, but I feel that systems provide the foundation on which successful sports betting is built. They come with no bias and if built upon solid principles, typically perform consistently, and in some cases, spectacularly.
One of the key fundamentals I like to use in the building of systems for any sport is the circumstances of extremes and how teams react to them. On any given week in college football, there can be extreme performances, in scores, in results against the point spread, and in stats accumulated in the games. In most cases, a lot is made of these extreme situations, but what I’m specifically looking to find out is how teams fare in the follow-up contest when coming off one of these extreme situations. After all, unusual performances have a tendency to either galvanize teams or alternatively, shred their cohesiveness.
With that in mind, before we get too deep into the season and miss out on golden opportunities, I figured it would be a good time to share some CFB extreme betting systems that I was unable to uncover from studying the last 10+ years of games.
Note: These systems include only games involving at least one FBS team.
1. Huge week-to-week point spread movement
CFB teams that see their point spread in one fame being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 81-54 ATS.
2. Upset losses as huge favorites snowball
Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5-points or more have gone just 36-60 SU and 33-60-3 ATS (35.5%) in the follow-up contest since 2012.
3. Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both college football teams coming off a game that was decided by a margin of 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 121-166 ATS (42.2%) over the last decade-plus.
4. Prolific offensive performances don’t last
FBS teams that gain 735 or more yards offensively in their prior game have gone just 28-44 ATS (38.9%) in the follow-up contest since 2012.
5. Dismal offensive performances carry over
College football teams that gained q00 yards or fewer in a game have not bounced back well in the next, going just 22-32 ATS (40.7%) in their last 54 tries.
6. Not taking advantage enough of turnovers can be a red flag
CFB FBS teams that benefitted from a +5 turnover differential or greater but failed to score 44+ points in that game have responded by going just 31-50 ATS (38.3%) in their next contest since ’12.
7. Ride teams off of uber-dominant performances
Over the course of the last decade, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 125-86 ATS (59.2%).
8. Playing well offensively but losing a good sign for the next outing
College football teams that lost a game as an underdog despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well lately, going 58-37 ATS (61.1%) over the last 10 years.
9. Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum builders
Over the last decade, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 63-38 ATS (62.4%) in the follow-up contest.
