We’re running out of regular-season weeks for the 2026 college football season, but that just means we have a lot of big games left to go. Games with College Football Playoff implications, games that matter in the standings for conference championship berths, and games with teams looking to get six wins for bowl eligibility. All of those things can provide some betting angles, but also provide some inflated lines on those teams. It’s up to us to decide and make the smartest wagers possible.
Here are my favorite Week 11 college football picks:
For more best bets, check out our VSiN Picks page with top plays from hosts and guests.
Lines from Circa Sports as of 1:00 p.m. PT on November 11
Duke vs. Miami (FL) (-13.5, 54) Prediction
Saturday, Noon ET
Pick: Under 54
This might be a square position to take, but this is a big ask of Miami minus Malachi Toney. Duke’s offense is really heavy on the run with a big season from Nate Sheppard, who has racked up nearly 1,200 rushing yards already. Walker Eget has a 10/3 TD/INT ratio and a 63% completion rate, but he has not had more than one TD pass in a game since the Blue Devils played William & Mary at the end of September.
I like Sheppard and love what Duke has done running the ball, but Miami has the best run defense in the nation by the numbers. Obviously game state has helped keep down their yards per game allowed since they’ve led by a lot and teams have had to throw the ball to try and catch up. Even then, on a per-carry basis, the Hurricanes have allowed just 2.46 YPC, which is fourth in the nation.
The best run defense that Duke has seen in ACC play is North Carolina, who ranks 66th in YPC. Duke lost that game 24-20 and Sheppard only had 77 yards on 20 carries. That seems like the way that Miami will defend – make somebody other than Sheppard beat them.
On the flip side, Miami without Toney is a different offense. Even though they had success moving the ball on some level against Notre Dame, Darian Mensah was only 24-of-43 passing. The ground game didn’t provide much help with 3.6 yards per carry. I’m not going to say that Duke and Notre Dame have equal defenses, but the Blue Devils are 15th in YPC allowed and 16th in YPP allowed.
Kansas State vs. TCU Prediction
2 p.m. ET
Pick: Kansas State +10.5
Kansas State looks to be without Avery Johnson for the rest of the season, but they’ve had some time to adjust to that injury. QB Blake Barnett was actually pretty good against Colorado, but struggled in the blowout loss to Oklahoma State last time out. If nothing else, the Wildcats have been able to run the football pretty well this season, although Johnson was a big part of that as well.
Still, this TCU team is a dud offensively. They are a very strong defensive unit, 21st in yards per play allowed and 22nd in yards per carry allowed. After gaining 6.85 YPP in non-conference games, the Horned Frogs have only racked up 5.09 YPP in games against Big 12 competition. That makes it tough to cover these double-digit spreads. While TCU has covered a number like this in three of their four wins, Baylor had two plus-territory turnovers on downs and a missed field goal in an 11-point TCU win. The others were against Grambling and Arkansas State.
The K-State defense has been pretty atrocious in league play, but they get a little bit of a respite here against the Horned Frogs. If nothing else, I would expect the Wildcats to play slow and deliberate. I’m not sure TCU’s offense can be efficient enough with a limited number of possessions to cover the number.
UNLV vs. New Mexico (-14, 46.5) Prediction
7:30 p.m. ET
Pick: UNLV +14
The Rebels can play a high-variance enough game to put a real scare into New Mexico. The Lobos are also tasked with covering a two-touchdown number here with an offense that doesn’t really put fear in the hearts of opposing defenses. I will say, I was really surprised to see that the Lobos have actually averaged more yards per play on the season and in conference games than UNLV.
However, the majority of that is due to Jackson Arnold’s scrambling. He only has 3.8 yards per carry on 128 rush attempts. Jai’Den Thomas and the backs have run really well and the Rebels have averaged better than 13 yards per reception. It’s just that Arnold has had happy feet and the UNLV offensive line hasn’t been terribly sharp.
Obviously those are things that a good Lobos defense can exploit. But, this is a Lobos team that has scored 21 points three times and 31 points once over the last four games. If they do something like that, it’ll be tough to keep UNLV at bay long enough to cover that sort of number. The talent level for UNLV is such that they are one of the more dangerous teams in this conference, even if they haven’t shown it consistently.
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