Week 11 of the 2026 college football season is here and our VSiN team is attacking it relentlessly. If you haven’t already, make sure you check out the Week 11 CFB Betting Hub for write-ups and picks from all of our talented analysts. However, I’d love for you to keep reading for my college football best bets and predictions for this exciting Week 11 slate. I’ll probably add some picks as lines move and more information comes out later in the week — and on game day. If I do, I’ll put them on the VSiN Pro Picks page. Don’t miss out on those.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for college football best bets from all of our analysts
Duke Blue Devils at Miami Hurricanes – 12:00 pm ET
Duke’s Nate Sheppard is one of the best running backs in the country, with 1,189 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns this season. He’s the driving force behind a solid Blue Devils offense. But the Hurricanes will know to expect a heavy dose of Sheppard, and they’re No. 2 nationally in Defensive Success against the rush (32.8%), according to Game On Paper. They’re also No. 2 in EPA/rush allowed (-0.23).
Miami should be able to slow Sheppard down, even if it means loading the box. The Hurricanes won’t be too worried about Walker Eget beating them through the air, as Duke’s passing game has been underwhelming all season.
On the other side of the ball, I’m not concerned about Miami putting up points. The Hurricanes posted a 0.16 EPA/pass against an elite Notre Dame defense last week. That would rank 32nd nationally over a full season, and the Blue Devils are unlikely to present the same problems the Irish did.
Miami is also another week removed from the Malachi Toney injury. That means more practice reps for Darian Mensah to get comfortable with his new group of weapons.
This feels like a game that could get lopsided. Under Manny Diaz, Duke is just 3-7 straight up and 3-5-2 against the spread when facing teams that average at least 425.0 yards per game. The Blue Devils have struggled against explosive offenses, and they’re facing another one here.
Bet: Miami -13 (-110)
Michigan Wolverines at Oregon Ducks – 3:30 pm ET
During my Cashing Out spot with Dustin Swedelson on Tuesday, I noted that Oregon -11 is my biggest play of the week. These teams are moving in opposite directions, and they’re doing so at ludicrous speed.
Michigan has lost four of its last six games and scored 14 or fewer points in three of its last five. Meanwhile, Oregon is coming off back-to-back wins over strong competition, beating Northwestern 34-26 in Eugene before going to Columbus and taking down Ohio State 41-28.
The Ducks have figured things out offensively since moving on from Drew Mehringer. They’re also No. 3 nationally in EPA/play allowed (-0.26), so Michigan’s struggling offense isn’t catching a break here.
There’s a good chance Oregon beats the brakes off Michigan. I’ll also add that the Ducks are 11-6 ATS as favorites of 10.5 to 21 points under Dan Lanning.
Bet: Oregon -11 (-109 – 2 units)
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys – 9:30 pm ET
This might seem like an outrageously high total, but Oklahoma State has played three straight games with at least 73 combined points. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has scored at least 34 points in three of its last four, and the defense we saw from the Red Raiders last season is nowhere to be found.
Oklahoma State has the most explosive offense in college football, with Drew Mestemaker and Co. also ranking fourth in Net Adjusted EPA/play (0.19). But the Cowboys can’t get opposing offenses off the field. The Red Raiders are starting to look like a similar team, with Thomas Castellanos changing the complexion of their offense.
Neither defense looks likely to make enough plays to keep this from turning into a shootout, so I’m expecting both teams to put up a ton of points. Under Joey McGuire, the Over is 19-11 in Texas Tech games against teams averaging at least 5.9 yards per play. It’s also 6-0 in Oklahoma State’s Big 12 games under Eric Morris.
Bet: Over 72.5 (-112)
Added Plays
Stanford +15.5 (-110) vs. Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh -3.5 (-105) vs. Florida State
Wake Forest ML (-108) vs. SMU
PARLAY: Penn State ML vs. Minnesota & Indiana ML vs. USC (-147 – 1.5 units)
Check the Pro Picks page for any additional plays, or come back here right before kick-off to see if I added something on the game you’re interested in.
Week 10
Syracuse ML (+120) vs. Clemson
Oregon +8 (-110) vs. Ohio State
Northwestern ML (-127) vs. Iowa
PARLAY: Missouri Alt +8.5 vs. Texas & Minnesota Alt +8.5 vs. UCLA (-105 – 1.5 units)
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2026 Record: 25-28 (-6.51 units)
