The goal for each team is to get a little better each week. For some, that goal will be harder to reach than others. Some teams also need to press harder for that goal because they have College Football Playoff or conference championship aspirations and there isn’t a whole lot of margin for error over the 12-game regular season. Trying to hit the ground running with a lot of new personnel isn’t easy, though some have definitely done a better job of it than others.
But, as these teams are figuring out things about themselves, so, too, are bettors and bookmakers, as the ratings and team values are getting a little bit sharper with each data point and the statistics associated with that game. Plus, we’re also able to see how their opponents are progressing to go back and reconsider what those results and performances mean as well.
Week 3 is still a good week for those who are really plugged in, as the books are still trying to nail things down much like we are and, as I’ve said before, the more variance, the better the environment for us.
Here are my favorite Week 3 college football picks:
Lines from Circa Sports as of 4:30 p.m. PT on September 16.
Temple vs. Toledo (-6, 50.5) Prediction
Pick: Toledo -6
We’re two games into the season and Temple is still trying to figure out who the starting QB should be. Jaxon Smolik and Ajani Sheppard have both received plenty of reps, with Smolik the more efficient runner and passer. Sheppard led Temple’s only touchdown drive last week against Penn State, a 12-play, 75-yard matriculation that took up nearly eight minutes of the fourth quarter. Smolik is expected to get the nod here, but Sheppard will probably find his way into the game in some capacity.
Toledo is rolling with program veteran John Alan Richter, who has completed 60% of his tosses with a 5/1 TD/INT ratio and a couple of sacks. To this point, the Rockets haven’t really gotten the run game going. While the stats show 5.1 yards per carry, Connor Walendzak’s 71-yard TD run against Michigan State has skewed the per-carry numbers greatly. Take that one away and the Rockets have averaged slightly over four yards per pop.
But, I do like their chances to improve quickly under Mike Jacobs, who had a very potent and productive offense at Mercer. His QB, Braden Atkinson, is putting up big numbers for Oregon State. Hopefully Richter and the Rockets are able to get to that point as well. I do think that they have the chance here against Temple, who only gave up 27 points to Penn State, but did allow 6.82 yards per play. Penn State missed a field goal, turned the ball over on downs at the 2-yard-line, and kicked field goals of 31 and 39 yards, so they left points on the field.
The Rockets only mustered 20 points against Michigan State in the opener, but did have 6.66 yards per play in that game. The problem was that they were only able to run 41 plays. In other words, we’ve seen the offense do some good things, along with that explosive carry from Walendzak. Meanwhile, Temple’s defensive effort against Penn State seems to be getting a little bit too much love for what it actually was.
Michigan State at Notre Dame Prediction (-28.5, 52)
Pick: Michigan State +28.5
During Pat Fitzgerald’s tenure at Northwestern, the Wildcats were underdogs of 28+ points just three times, losing by 14 twice and by 49 once. That’s not to say that the 2026 Spartans and the Wildcats from 2006-23 are an apples-to-apples comparison, but it is to say that Fitzgerald’s philosophy and style of play did get enough respect to assume that his team would not get severely blown out.
I can’t imagine that Sparty will have as much success playing keep-away with Notre Dame as they did with Toledo, a game in which Michigan State ran 83 offensive plays to just 41 for the Rockets. Nor do I expect them to squeeze the Irish into submission like they did Eastern Michigan with 45 carries for 258 yards in last week’s 35-7 win. However, I do think that they’ll play at a slow pace and should be able to have enough early-down success to sustain some drives and limit Notre Dame’s ability to march up and down the field.
It took the Irish a bit of time to wake up against Wisconsin, leading just 13-10 at halftime before winning 41-13. They embarrassed Rice last week, but Rice has no passing attack whatsoever and will probably be one of the nation’s worst offenses. Michigan State at least has some balance. Alessio Milivojevic has completed over 70% of his passes and the team has rushed for over 400 yards. While explosive plays are mostly few and far between, the Spartans are 16-for-33 on third down to this point.
Notre Dame is absolutely a step up in class, but that’s where the 28.5-point head start comes in.
Mississippi State at South Carolina (-4, 58.5) Prediction
Pick: Mississippi State +4
This should be an excellent game with an outstanding environment at Williams-Brice Stadium for the SEC opener for both teams. I was there for the first half of South Carolina vs. Towson last week before getting soaked during a halftime downpour. The Gamecocks got two punt return TDs in that game and had three explosive TD runs, including one from LaNorris Sellers, but the offensive line had problems consistently opening up holes against the Tigers.
Sellers’ arm wasn’t needed, but his rhythm and timing were off significantly when he did drop back to throw and didn’t finish the play with a scramble. Collectively, the Gamecocks only had 11 catches for 97 yards. Towson, much like Week 1 opponent Kent State, was simply out-talented all over the field. Mississippi State will not be.
Kamario Taylor had three passing TDs and over 300 yards of total offense in the Bulldogs’ first test, a trip up to Minneapolis to take on the Golden Gophers. It was a 28-6 game at half and the Bulldogs just sort of leaned on Minnesota from there, but they completely took Darius Taylor out of the game. He only had six yards for 15 carries. Drake Lindsey needed 48 pass attempts and 31 completions to get to 279 yards. Taylor got all the headlines – and deservedly so – but the Bulldog defense was stout.
At least Mississippi State has played a team with a pulse. South Carolina will have to hit the ground running right away here in their first SEC test. While EDGE Dylan Stewart and transfer LT Jacarrius Peak are expected to return, and they are impact players on their respective sides of the ball, they’re not getting the chance to ease into the season like their teammates did.
I won’t be surprised to see South Carolina win, but this should be a tight game and four points could be very meaningful.
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