Week 3 College Football Betting Trends:
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 3. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 3. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Ranked home teams playing as single-digit favorites or underdogs against another ranked team have gone 65-29 SU and 58-33-3 ATS (63.7%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS TECH (-7.5 vs Houston)
Favorites are on a 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS run in the Clemson-UNC ACC series
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-3.5 vs UNC)
Ranked teams coming off a close loss of seven points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 121-30 SU but just 63-84-4 ATS (42.9%) since December of 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OHIO STATE (-52.5 vs Kent State), OKLAHOMA (-22.5 vs New Mexico)
IOWA STATE is 36-20-1 (64.3%) ATS in following up a SU LOSS since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY): IOWA STATE (-23.5 vs Bowling Green)
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 232-182 ATS (56%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): NORTH TEXAS (+3 at Texas State)
Home teams are on an 11-2 SU and 12-1 ATS surge in the LSU-Ole Miss rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): OLE MISS (+3 vs LSU)
#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the MAKINEN POWER RATINGS: SACRAMENTO STATE +27.5 vs N Dakota State (projections have line at Sacramento State +19.2)
*CHECK OUT EARLY SEASON STABILITY PLAYS BELOW*
College Football Stability Score Plays for Week 2
If you were one of the many readers of the 2026 College Football Betting Guide, or alternatively, have been a VSiN subscriber for a while now. If so, you’re probably already familiar with the methodology Steve Makinen has successfully used for the last 13 years or so regarding college football Stability Scores heading into the start of each season. If not, in a nutshell, what these scores are is a quantitative way to determine each team’s level of stability as compared to how they left us in the prior season. It is one of the foremost strategies he employs every year to find value early. The thought behind it is that teams that are in more stable year-to-year situations are better bets early, while those that have undergone a lot of change in the offseason should be faded.
Steve keeps a handy chart on the Stability Scores of each FBS team and publishes them weekly for Weeks 0-3. Here are this week’s qualifying plays. There is a separate article on VSiN that goes in-depth about these plays and scores, with new studies conducted recently over the ever-changing landscape of the transfer portal in college football.
New head coaches are 115-170 SU and 134-151 ATS (47%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning head coaches since 2021 (13-6 SU and 11-8 ATS last week)
System Matches (FADE ALL): COASTAL CAROLINA, PENN STATE, ARKANSAS, IOWA STATE, NORTH TEXAS, TOLEDO, MICHIGAN, KENTUCKY, UTAH, STANFORD, MISSOURI STATE, OHIO, VIRGINIA TECH, COLORADO STATE, MICHIGAN STATE, JAMES MADISON, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, SACRAMENTO STATE, UCLA
New defensive coordinators are 189-227 SU and 191-218-7 ATS (46.7%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning defensive coordinators since 2021 (14-16 SU and ATS last week)
System Matches (FADE ALL): COASTAL CAROLINA, KENT STATE, KANSAS STATE, ARKANSAS, EASTERN MICHIGAN, TOLEDO, CINCINNATI, MICHIGAN, UTAH, STANFORD, BAYLOR, EAST CAROLINA, GEORGIA STATE, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, OHIO, FLORIDA, VIRGINIA TECH, COLORADO, BYU, TENNESSEE, UAB, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, SACRAMENTO STATE, SAN JOSE STATE
Teams with 17+ total returning starters are 118-89 SU and 116-89-2 ATS (56.6%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus teams returning 16 or fewer since 2021 (including 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS the last two weeks)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, USC, TEXAS A&M, VIRGINIA TECH, NOTRE DAME, UCLA
In 2026, these are our new College Football Stability System(s):
Play on any team with a STABILITY SCORE EDGE of 6+ in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3), assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team. (351-242 SU and 317-264-12 ATS, 54.6% since 2013), including 7-11 SU and ATS last week.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DELAWARE, TEXAS STATE, TEMPLE, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, CHARLOTTE, MARSHALL, SOUTH ALABAMA, MARYLAND, BYU, NOTRE DAME, LOUISIANA, SAN DIEGO STATE, NORTH DAKOTA STATE, FRESNO STATE
AND
Play against any college football teams with STABILITY SCORES of 0-6 in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3) versus teams with higher scores, assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team (Fade record 278-156 SU and 236-193-4 ATS, 55% since 2013), including 9-10 SU and 10-9 ATS last week.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COASTAL CAROLINA, NORTH TEXAS, TOLEDO, CINCINNATI, UTAH, EAST CAROLINA, MISSOURI STATE, OHIO, VIRGINIA TECH, COLORADO STATE, MICHIGAN STATE, JAMES MADISON, SACRAMENTO STATE
College Football Revenge Handicapping
The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. REVENGE is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.
* LSU is 17-9 SU and 15-9 ATS (62.5%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): LSU (-3 at Ole Miss)
* MARSHALL is 13-10 SU but 9-14 ATS (39.1%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): MARSHALL (-3.5 at Missouri State)
College Football Revenge Systems
Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 118-132 ATS (47.2%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): ALABAMA (-19.5 vs Florida State)
Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 232-182 ATS (56%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): NORTH TEXAS (+3 at Texas State)
College Football Systems Based On AP Poll Rankings
The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll
CFB Ranked Team System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 222-115 SU and 192-136-9 ATS (58.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS TECH (-7.5 vs Houston), LOUISVILLE (-1.5 vs SMU), OLE MISS (+3 vs LSU)
Digging deeper into that data, when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 127-32 SU and 95-60-4 ATS (61.3%).
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS TECH (-7.5 vs Houston)
Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 65-29 SU and 58-33-3 ATS (63.7%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS TECH (-7.5 vs Houston)
CFB Ranked Team System #6: Ranked home favorites of more than 14 points are 355-27 SU but just 168-210-4 ATS (44.4%) versus unranked conference opponents since October 2015.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS A&M (-16.5 vs Kentucky)
CFB Ranked Team System #8: Teams coming off an upset win over a top-15 ranked team are 122-89 SU but just 91-119-1 ATS (43.3%) in the follow-up game dating back to November 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MICHIGAN (-35.5 vs UTEP), OKLAHOMA STATE (-56.5 vs Murray State)
CFB Ranked Team System #9: Teams coming off a loss at home to a top-10 ranked team are just 137-146 SU and 125-156-2 ATS (44.5%) in the next game since October of 2016.
System Match (FADE): STANFORD (+9.5 at Duke)
CFB Ranked Team System #10: Ranked teams coming off a close loss of 7 points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 121-30 SU but just 63-84-4 ATS (42.9%) since December of 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OHIO STATE (-52.5 vs Kent State), OKLAHOMA (-22.5 vs New Mexico)
CFB Ranked Team System #11: Ranked teams coming off a close win of seven points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread are on a 226-54 SU and 159-118-3 ATS (57.4%) surge when favored in the next game since October of 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-30.5 vs UTSA), IOWA (-40.5 vs Northern Iowa)
CFB Ranked Team System #13: Teams still unranked even after beating a ranked team in the prior game are 84-40 SU but just 52-70-2 ATS (42.6%) when favored in the follow-up game since November of 2015.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA STATE (-56.5 vs Murray State)
CFB Ranked Team System #14: Teams still ranked even after losing as seven-point favorites or more are 74-36 SU but 43-65-2 ATS (39.8%) in the follow-up games.
System Match (FADE): OREGON (-57.5 vs Portland State)
These teams are also 65-44-1 Under the total (59.6%) in these next contests since September of 2016.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PORTLAND STATE-OREGON (o/u at 67.5)
College Football Conference Play Systems and Trends
These detail top trends and systems for college football conference play.
* Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than three points have struggled lately, 87-117 ATS (42.6%) since 2011.
System Match (FADE): PURDUE (+14 at UCLA)
* Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than seven points after not having played in 14 days are on a 150-124 ATS (54.7%) surge since 2010.
System Match (PLAY): STANFORD (+9.5 at Duke)
* Under the total is 71-48-1 (59.7%) in ACC expected-tight matchups (within -3.5 to +3.5 line range) with totals <= 55.5 since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NORTH CAROLINA-CLEMSON (spread Clemson -3.5, o/u at 43.5)
Negative FADE trends:
- * USC has lost 16 of its last 22 games ATS as a favorite in conference play
Trend Match (FADE): USC (-24.5 at Rutgers)
- * RUTGERS is on a 3-12 ATS skid as a Big Ten home underdog
Trend Match (FADE): RUTGERS (+24.5 vs USC)
Positive FOLLOW trends:
LOUISVILLE is on a 12-7 ATS surge as an ACC home favorite
Trend Match (PLAY): LOUISVILLE (-1.5 vs SMU)
Extreme Stat Next-Game CFB Betting Systems
Huge week-to-week point spread movement
CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up game since 2012, going 105-79 ATS (57.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KENT STATE (+52.5 at Ohio State), UTEP (+35.5 at Michigan), NEW MEXICO (+22.5 at Oklahoma)
* WATCH FOR: AKRON (if they get to +25.5 at Minnesota), TROY (if they get to +28.5 at Missouri), WEST VIRGINIA (if they get to +10.5 vs Virginia), ARKANSAS STATE (if they get to +20.5 at TCU)
Upset losses as huge favorites snowball
Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 43-73 SU and 42-70-4 ATS (37.5%) in the follow-up game since 2012.
System Match (FADE): OREGON (-57.5 vs Portland State)
Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next game, going just 153-194-1 ATS (44.1%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NC STATE (+3.5 at Vanderbilt), NORTH TEXAS (+3 at Texas State)
Prolific offensive performances don’t last
FBS teams that gain 735 or more yards offensively in their prior game have gone just 33-47 ATS (41.3%) in the follow-up contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI FL (-20.5 at Wake Forest)
Ride teams off of uber-dominant performances
Over the last 13 years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 158-118 ATS (57.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI FL (-20.5 at Wake Forest), HOUSTON (+7.5 at Texas Tech), NC STATE (+3.5 at Vanderbilt), JAMES MADISON (+2.5 at SDSU), NEW MEXICO (+22.5 at Oklahoma), TCU (-19.5 vs Arkansas State), VIRGINIA (-10 vs W Virginia)
Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum-builders
Over the last thirteen years, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 86-62 ATS (58.1%) in the follow-up game.
System Match (PLAY): CALIFORNIA (vs Wagner)
Top College Football Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
Thursday, September 17, 2026
* PITTSBURGH is 48-29 (62.3%) Over the total since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SYRACUSE-PITTSBURGH (o/u at 51.5)
Saturday, September 19, 2026
* FLORIDA STATE is 11-26 (29.7%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2019
* ALABAMA is on a 32-10 ATS (76.2%) surge at home
* FLORIDA STATE is 17-5 (77.3%) to the Under in the last 22 games as an UNDERDOG
Trends Match: PLAY ALABAMA (-19.5 vs Florida State), also PLAY Under the total (o/u at 48.5)
* APPALACHIAN STATE is 10-26 ATS (27.8%) in the last 36 games as a favorite
Trend Match (FADE): APPALACHIAN STATE (-17.5 vs Charlotte)
* ARIZONA STATE is 10-2 (83.3%) ATS in its last 12 games as a favorite
* KANSAS is 43-29-1 (59.7%) Over the total since 2019
Trends Match: PLAY ARIZONA STATE (-5.5 at Kansas), also PLAY Over the total (o/u at 50.5)
* BALL STATE is 41-29-1 (58.6%) UNDER the total over the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BALL STATE-LIBERTY (o/u at 49.5)
* BOWLING GREEN is 20-33 (37.7%) ATS as an underdog since 2019
* BOWLING GREEN is 10-17 (37%) ATS in non-conference games since 2019
* IOWA STATE is 36-20-1 (64.3%) ATS in following up a SU loss since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY): IOWA STATE (-23.5 vs Bowling Green)
* CENTRAL MICHIGAN is 8-15 ATS (34.8%) as a favorite in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-1.5 vs Wyoming)
* EASTERN MICHIGAN is 42-22 (65.6%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+24.5 at Wisconsin)
* FLORIDA ATLANTIC is 7-18 (28%) ATS in the last 25 games after a SU win
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-7 vs FIU)
* FRESNO STATE is 41-25-1 (62.1%) Under the total since 2021
* FRESNO STATE is 25-15 (62.5%) ATS coming off a SU Win since 2021
Trends Match: PLAY FRESNO STATE (-6.5 vs San Jose State), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 50.5)
* GEORGIA is 26-18 (59.1%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2020
* GEORGIA is 12-23 (34.3%) ATS in the last 35 games following a SU win
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of GEORGIA (-24.5 at Arkansas)
* GEORGIA STATE is 23-14-1 (62.2%) ATS in its last 38 road/neutral games
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA STATE (+18.5 at UCF)
* GEORGIA TECH is 12-27-1 ATS (30.8%) in its last 40 games as a favorite
Trend Match (FADE): GEORGIA TECH (-38.5 vs Mercer)
* KENT STATE is 15-29 (34.1%) ATS in its last 44 games as an underdog
Trend Match (FADE): KENT STATE (+52.5 at Ohio State)
* LOUISIANA TECH is 43-31-1 (58.1%) Over the total since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LOUISIANA TECH-BAYLOR (o/u at 53.5)
* LSU is 25-18 (58.1%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2019
* OLE MISS is 4-0 (100%) ATS as home underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY LSU, 1 PLAY OLE MISS
* VIRGINIA TECH is 9-24 (27.3%) ATS in its last 33 games following a SU win
* VIRGINIA TECH is 8-23 ATS (25.8%) in non-conference games since 2019
* MARYLAND is 20-9 (69%) ATS in its last 29 non-conference games
Trends Match (PLAY): MARYLAND (+3 vs VA Tech)
* MIAMI OHIO is on a 42-30-1 (58.3%) Under the total run over the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIAMI OH-CINCINNATI (o/u at 49.5)
* NEBRASKA is 10-17-3 (37%) ATS at home in the last 30 games
Trend Match (FADE): NEBRASKA (-24.5 vs N Dakota)
* NEW MEXICO is 24-15 (61.5%) Over the total in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NEW MEXICO-OKLAHOMA (o/u at 46.5)
* NC STATE is 6-14 ATS (30%) in non-conference games in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NC STATE (+3.5 at Vanderbilt)
* OLD DOMINION is 12-25 (32.4%) ATS at home since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): OLD DOMINION (-3 vs East Carolina)
* OREGON STATE is 31-14 (68.9%) ATS in home games over the last seven seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): OREGON STATE (vs Montana)
* PENN STATE is 37-24 (60.7%) ATS coming off a SU win since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): PENN STATE (-40.5 vs Buffalo)
* RICE is 23-12 (65.7%) to the Over in non-conference games since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WESTERN MICHIGAN-RICE (o/u at 43.5)
* SAN DIEGO STATE is 54-31 (63.5%) Under the total since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): JAMES MADISON-SAN DIEGO STATE (o/u at 46.5)
* SOUTH CAROLINA is 18-11 (62.1%) ATS as a favorite in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (-4 vs Mississippi State)
* STANFORD is 14-31 ATS (31.1%) coming off a SU loss since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): STANFORD (+9.5 at Duke)
* TEMPLE is 23-13 (63.9%) ATS coming off SU loss since 2020
* TEMPLE is 9-19 (32.1%) ATS in road games over the last five seasons
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TEMPLE (+5.5 at Toledo)
* TENNESSEE is 19-8 (70.4%) ATS in non-conference games since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (-35.5 vs Kennesaw State)
* TROY is 24-8 (75%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): TROY (+26.5 at Missouri)
* UAB is 2-14 ATS (12.5%) following up an outright win and 8-18 (30.8%) in road/neutral games over the last four seasons
* LOUISIANA is 29-14 (67.4%) to the Under in home games since 2019
Trends Match: FADE UAB (+7.5 at Louisiana), also PLAY Under the total (o/u at 56.5)
* USC is 37-19 ATS (66.1%) Over the total in the last four seasons
* RUTGERS is 11-2 (84.6%) to the Over as a home underdog since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): USC-RUTGERS (o/u at 59.5)
* UTAH STATE is 8-18 ATS (30.8%) in road/neutral games over the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): UTAH STATE (+28.5 at Utah)
* UTEP is 12-27 ATS (30.8%) in non-conference games since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): UTEP (+35.5 at Michigan)
* WASHINGTON is 4-11 (26.7%) following SU wins since 2024
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (vs Eastern Washington)
* WESTERN KENTUCKY is 1-8 (11.1%) ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): WESTERN KENTUCKY (+44.5 at Indiana)
Top College Football Head-to-Head Series Trends
These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(105) SYRACUSE at (106) PITTSBURGH
Under the total is 11-3 in the last 14 matchups between Syracuse and Pitt
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SYRACUSE-PITTSBURGH (o/u at 51.5)
(119) NORTH CAROLINA at (120) CLEMSON
FAVORITES are on 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS run in Tar Heels-Tigers ACC series
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-3.5 vs UNC)
(139) TEMPLE at (140) TOLEDO
Under the total is 5-1 in Owls-Rockets set since 2001
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEMPLE-TOLEDO (o/u at 50.5)
(153) UTAH STATE at (154) UTAH
Over the total is 6-2 in the last eight of Aggies-Utes in-state rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTAH STATE-UTAH (o/u at 56.5)
(163) MISSISSIPPI STATE at (164) SOUTH CAROLINA
Favorites are on 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS surge in the last seven meetings between the Bulldogs and Gamecocks
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (-4 vs Mississippi State)
(167) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at (168) FLORIDA ATLANTIC
FLORIDA ATLANTIC has won and covered its last five times hosting FIU
Trend Match (PLAY): FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-7 vs FIU)
Over the total is 8-1 in Panthers-Owls series since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): FIU-FAU (o/u at 62.5)
(183) FLORIDA at (184) AUBURN
Underdogs are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in Gators-Tigers SEC set since 2001
Trend Match (PLAY): AUBURN (+2.5 vs Florida)
(197) LSU at (198) OLE MISS
Home teams are on an 11-2 SU and 12-1 ATS surge in the LSU-Ole Miss series
Trend Match (PLAY): OLE MISS (+3 vs LSU)
(199) MICHIGAN STATE at (200) NOTRE DAME
MICHIGAN STATE is 5-3 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight trips to South Bend
Trend Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN STATE (+29.5 at Notre Dame)
Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 3:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 612-675 ATS (47.6%). This angle has produced consistently over the last four seasons, and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span has given you a small profit in four straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI FL, HOUSTON, DELAWARE, GEORGIA, IOWA STATE, ARIZONA STATE, KANSAS STATE, AKRON, OHIO STATE, PENN STATE, EASTERN MICHIGAN, NC STATE, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, ALABAMA, CINCINNATI, LOUISVILLE, UTEP, USC, TEXAS A&M, BAYLOR, INDIANA, BALL STATE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, CHARLOTTE, EAST CAROLINA, MISSOURI STATE, FLORIDA, MIDDLE TENN STATE, MISSOURI, W MICHIGAN, UCONN, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, SOUTH ALABAMA, VIRGINIA TECH, COLROADO, NOTRE DAME, VIRGINIA, ARKANSAS STATE, TEXAS, JAMES MADISON, NORTH DAKOTA STATE, FRESNO STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 259-276 ATS (48.4%). In 2022 it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, in 2024 it was 46.6%. Last year it was six games over-.500. I believe that performance will prove to be a fluke. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page >75%, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): IOWA STATE, MINNESOTA, OHIO STATE, PENN STATE, WISCONSIN, ALABAMA, TEXAS A&M, UTAH, BAYLOR, DUKE, INDIANA, MISSOURI STATE, MISSOURI, SOUTH ALABAMA, NOTRE DAME, OKLAHOMA, TENNESSEE, LOUISIANA, TEXAS, ARIZONA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 371-417 ATS (47.1%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI FL, GEORGIA, USC, FLORIDA, WESTERN MICHIGAN, UCONN, VIRGINIA TECH, LSU, NORTH DAKOTA STATE, FRESNO STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 68%+ majority of the handle was on small home favorites of seven points or fewer for an ATS wager since the start of the 2023 season, this majority group is 84-68 ATS (55.3%). Bettors are wisely valuing home-field advantage in these games that are expected to be competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DELAWARE, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, LOUISVILLE, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, SOUTH ALABAMA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 159-141-1 ATS (53%). This is a pretty good percentage for a high-volume, simple-based system, and a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SYRACUSE, HOUSTON, NORTH CAROLINA, AKRON, EASTERN MICHIGAN, NC STATE, UTEP, UTAH STATE, BALL STATE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, CHARLOTTE, EAST CAROLINA, GEORGIA STATE, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, COLORADO, ARKANSAS STATE, JAMES MADISON
CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past four seasons, this majority group has gone 155-135 ATS (53.4%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4, actually, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, NORTH CAROLINA, NORTH TEXAS, NC STATE, TEMPLE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, EAST CAROLINA, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, COLORADO, JAMES MADISON
CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their record since the start of 2022 is 294-240 (55.1%). This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, MIAMI FL, HOUSTON
CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: Contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. In most cases, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 94-75 ATS (55.6%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OHIO STATE, PENN STATE, INDIANA, NOTRE DAME, TENNESSEE, TEXAS, ARIZONA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 59 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 68-51 (57.1%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NORTH TEXAS-TEXAS ST
CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 69-56 (55.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Under, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NORTH CAROLINA-CLEMSON, BOWLING GREEN-IOWA STATE, EASTERN MICHIGAN-WISCONSIN
CFB DK Betting Splits system #11: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 207-180 (53.5%). This also does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NORTH CAROLINA-CLEMSON, BOWLING GREEN-IOWA STATE, EASTERN MICHIGAN-WISCONSIN, WYOMING-CENTRAL MICHIGAN, WESTERN MICHIGAN-RICE, NEW MEXICO-OKLAHOMA, JAMES MADISON-SAN DIEGO STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #12: Since the start of the 2022 season, majority handle bettors have been quite sharp in two different contrarian ways for betting totals in non-conference games. When greater than 80% majorities have gotten behind Overs for totals of less than 55, they’ve gone 65-35 (65%). These are very good performance levels, again going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): TULANE-KANSAS STATE, AKRON-MINNESOTA, BUFFALO-PENN STATE, FLORIDA STATE-ALABAMA, MARSHALL-MISSOURI STATE, NEVADA-MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE, WESTERN MICHIGAN-RICE, GEORGIA SOUTHERN-JACKSONVILLE STATE, NEW MEXICO-OKLAHOMA, JAMES MADISON-SAN DIEGO STATE, NORTHERN ILLINOIS-ARIZONA
This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NCAAF tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO STATE +27.5 (+8.3)
2. NORTHERN ILLINOIS +34.5 (+4.8)
3. EASTERN MICHIGAN +24.5 (+4.1)
4. MIAMI OH +14.5 (+3.5)
5. TULANE +20.5 (+3.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TEXAS TECH -7.5 (+6.2)
2. LOUISIANA -7.5 (+5.0)
3. DUKE -9.5 (+4.5)
4. UCONN -3 (+4.3)
5. NEVADA -3.5 (+3.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LOUISIANA TECH +19.5 (+6.6)
2. UTSA +30.5 (+5.6)
3. NORTHERN ILLINOIS +34.5 (+4.9)
4. SACRAMENTO STATE +27.5 (+4.6)
5. AKRON +24.5 (+4.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BYU -17.5 (+7.2)
2. TEXAS TECH -7.5 (+6.7)
3. VIRGINIA -10 (+4.9)
4. CLEMSON -3.5 (+3.7)
5 (tie). VANDERBILT -3.5 (+2.4)
UCF -18.5 (+2.4)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. KENTUCKY-TEXAS A&M OVER 49.5 (+5.1)
2. JAMES MADISON-SAN DIEGO STATE OVER 46.5 (+4.1)
3. HOUSTON-TEXAS TECH OVER 52.5 (+3.3)
4. MARSHALL-MISSOURI STATE OVER 51.5 (+3.1)
5. SYRACUSE-PITTSBURGH OVER 51.5 (+2.9)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI FL-WAKE FOREST UNDER 56.5 (-6.0)
2. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL-FLORIDA ATLANTIC UNDER 62.5 (-4.8)
3. FLORIDA-AUBURN UNDER 53.5 (-3.7)
4. WESTERN KENTUCKY-INDIANA UNDER 60.5 (-3.5)
5. SMU-LOUISVILLE UNDER 59.5 (-3.1)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO STATE +27.5 (+7.7)
2. WYOMING +1.5 (+5.4)
3. WEST VIRGINIA +10 (+5.0)
4. TULANE +20.5 (+4.6)
5. NORTHERN ILLINOIS +34.5 (+4.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TEXAS TECH -7.5 (+5.0)
2. NEVADA -3.5 (+4.6)
3. DUKE -9.5 (+4.3)
4 (tie). SOUTH CAROLINA -4 (+3.0)
UCONN -3 (+3.0)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ARIZONA STATE-KANSAS OVER 50.5 (+10.4)
2. GEORGIA-ARKANSAS OVER 54.5 (+6.4)
3 (tie). NC STATE-VANDERBILT OVER 50.5 (+5.7)
WESTERN MICHIGAN-RICE OVER 43.5 (+5.7)
5. AKRON-MINNESOTA OVER 49.5 (+5.3)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. KENT STATE-OHIO STATE UNDER 59.5 (-6.6)
2. MIAMI FL-WAKE FOREST UNDER 56.5 (-5.4)
3. WESTERN KENTUCKY-INDIANA UNDER 60.5 (-4.6)
4. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL-FLORIDA ATLANTIC UNDER 62.5 (-4.2)
5. JAMES MADISON-SAN DIEGO STATE UNDER 46.5 (-3.6)
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