Marquee matchups aplenty is the theme for Week 7, as we have six Top 25 vs. Top 25 matchups, including three that feature a pair of Top-15 teams per the AP Poll. It will be a big day for those College Football Playoff hopefuls, but we’re also past the midpoint of the season for everybody else, so these games matter in conferences across the country. Teams are still doing what they can to reach program goals and it sure seems like we could be in line for some wild finishes later next month.
All of the focus for the bookmakers and recreational bettors will be on those big-time games. That’s not where my focus is this week, as I’m looking at some way under-the-radar affairs and one SEC matchup.
Here are my favorite Week 7 college football picks:
Lines from Circa Sports as of 12:15 p.m. PT on October 14
Auburn vs. Georgia (-21, 50) Prediction
3:30 p.m. ET
Pick: Auburn +21
Money has trickled in on Georgia this week, as the Bulldogs are looking to ride the high of last week’s win over Alabama to move to No. 1 in the country. Auburn, meanwhile, had a bye week, so first-year head coach Alex Golesh was able to analyze what has happened to this point in the season and make some tweaks where necessary.
While the Auburn offense hasn’t been explosive by any means, the Tigers still come into this game with a positive yards per play differential in their three SEC games, even though two of them were losses. They lost to Florida by five and Tennessee by 10, but they were arguably better than the Volunteers in that game. They just lost the turnover battle, with two of them in plus territory and another around midfield, plus had a turnover on downs on their own 24-yard-line.
I don’t think Auburn pulls a shocker here by any means, but I am curious to see how Georgia fares a week after having to play a full 60-minute game. Their leading rusher by attempts had 35 going into the Alabama game and didn’t even have a carry in that one. Their leading pass catcher was barely into double digits in grabs.
A 21-point head start for the Tigers here should be enough for them to keep this one respectable and inside the number.
North Carolina vs. Duke (-3.5, 47.5) Prediction
3:30 p.m. ET
Pick: North Carolina +3.5
Bill Belichick has never been a fan of losing. Last season, he lost this rivalry game 32-25, as Duke went 5-for-6 on fourth down and the Tar Heels had 12 penalties for 103 yards, while the Blue Devils only had three for 27 yards. Duke had the ball for 36 minutes in that game and ran 76 plays to UNC’s 52.
The two teams are on closer footing this season, as Belichick has put his stamp on the program in Year 2. North Carolina was 111th in penalty yardage per game last season. This season, the Tar Heels are second in that department, getting set back just 27.4 yards per game. They are the third-least penalized team per game, with only Indiana and Notre Dame ahead of them.
This season’s defense is stronger and the offense is even showing some signs of life, especially in the running game. While Duke ranks 21st in yards per carry allowed with 3.09, the Blue Devils have allowed nearly five yards per carry in two ACC tilts thus far. Duke only had 5.43 YPP in last week’s loss to Georgia Tech and North Carolina gutted out a road win over Pitt.
Had there not been a weather delay against Clemson, we’re probably talking about a 4-1 UNC team with a top-10 strength of schedule. Duke’s SOS ranks 92nd per Sagarin, the lowest of any team in the ACC. The hook could come in handy here, but I just think UNC might be the better team, too.
Washington State vs. Oregon State (-18.5, 52.5) Prediction
6 p.m. ET
Pick: Oregon State -18.5
Maybe the market has reached a crescendo on Oregon State. My line on this game is -16 and I’ve been pretty aggressive with bumping up the Beavers as the season has gone along. But, you rarely see this big of a mismatch on offense.
Behind Braden Atkinson and Jesse Legree, Oregon State is eighth in the nation with 7.27 yards per play. Washington State is 133rd with 4.64, as they have sat down starting QB Caden Pinnick to turn things over to Owen Eshelman, who will make his first collegiate start. At Norman North High School, Eshelman had a 29/13 TD/INT ratio in his senior season. He also ran for 1,383 yards, so we’ll see if his legs can provide a spark for the Cougars. He hasn’t even had a rushing attempt in a game yet.
Not only is there an enormous discrepancy in offensive yards per play, Oregon State has converted 49.3% of their third-down attempts. Washington State has only converted at 26.9%.
While there’s a ton of focus, and rightfully so, on Oregon State’s offense, the defense has allowed just 5.02 yards per play and just 4.89 YPP in two conference games thus far. Even in the losses to Houston and Texas Tech, the Beavers only gave up 6.02 YPP and those were the first two games with JaMarcus Shephard at the helm.
The market will reach a peak on Oregon State soon, but I don’t think this is the week.
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