Week 7 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 7 college football best bets:
Washington +3.5 at Purdue
U-Dub has lost three consecutive games and is a money-burning 1-5 ATS this season. The Huskies were in a great spot at home last week with Iowa traveling west off the loss to Ohio State. Iowa was also starting its backup QB, and yet Washington fell behind 27-0 before losing 41-24.
QB Demond Williams Jr. left the game in the second quarter with an injury. Stanford transfer Elijah Brown took over and threw for 251 yards and three TD passes. The main story of the game was the Washington defense having by far its worst performance of the season, allowing 465 yards, including 263 on the ground, and 41 points to an offense that is challenged. The coordinator of that Huskies defense is Ryan Walters, who is in his second season as Washington’s defensive coordinator. Walters returns to West Lafayette for the first time since being fired as Purdue’s head coach. He lasted two seasons (2023 and 2024) and went just 5-19 and was widely seen as a poor hire. Certainly, there is that motivation, but also the need to get his defense right against a Purdue team that put up 41 points and 464 yards on a Minnesota team that had just won at Washington and defeated Michigan in the Little Brown Jug game for the first time in 12 years.
After 19 straight Big Ten losses, the Boilermakers have won two conference games in a row, and with a manageable schedule ahead, hope and optimism are back in the Purdue football program for the first time in years.
However, Purdue now flips to the favorite role in a conference game after winning its last two as an underdog. Barry Odom’s Boilers are improving, but how will they handle expectations now after pulling off two surprising victories?
Purdue also gives up over 400 yards and over 31 points per game (fifth-worst among Power 4 teams). Favorites with bad defenses are rarely, if ever, good bets even against a team that has bottomed out in the market like Washington.
Indiana +3.5 vs. Ohio State
No. 4 Ohio State travels to Bloomington to face No. 5 Indiana in what is arguably the biggest and certainly the most anticipated game in the history of Memorial Stadium. This is also a rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship Game, which saw the Hoosiers earn their first victory over the Buckeyes since 1988 and set Indiana on its way to a 16-0 season and a National Championship. In fact, this meeting features the last two national champions.
Ohio State should be unbeaten if not for blowing a 20-point fourth-quarter lead at Texas. Nevertheless, the Buckeyes have not missed a beat since, and star WR Jeremiah Smith is the current odds-on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. The Buckeyes rank in the top 7 in scoring offense, passing offense, and total offense. Now they get to face a Hoosiers defense led by Broyles Award-winning DC Bryant Haines, who has the Hoosiers back in the top 5 nationally. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers have a top-20 offense that will get its biggest test against an Ohio State defense rated in the top 10 for both total defense and scoring defense.
Most of the national media discussion and punditry predict an Ohio State win and say this is where Indiana gets its comeuppance. The Hoosiers are also just 1-5 ATS this season and escaped with a win at Nebraska last weekend despite trailing 17-6 with just 12 minutes left. Much has also been made of Indiana’s soft non-conference schedule, and it has led to many disbelievers in the media, despite the fact that they are the defending National Champions and that Curt Cignetti is 33-2 overall and 19-0 at Memorial Stadium.
Ohio State also comes into this game a bit banged up, with starting OT Austin Siereveld and No. 2 RB Ja’Kobi Jackson out for this game, and WRs Devin McCuin and Brandon Inniss also dealing with injuries. Jeremiah Smith has clearly been all-world since he stepped foot in Columbus, but he has 66 targets compared to just 21 for McCuin and 12 for Inniss. Smith had 8 catches for 144 yards last year vs. Indiana in the Big Ten Championship but was kept off the score sheet and had to earn everything he got. That has been the burning question all week: how will Indiana cover Smith? A fair question, but it also needs to be followed up with: Who covers the nation’s top receiving duo, Indiana’s Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh?
While Smith has been the man, Ohio State, who struggled to run vs. Indiana last season (26 carries, 58 yards), ranks just 133rd in explosive runs this season. Opponents have run the ball 195 times in six games against Indiana’s front, and the Hoosiers have only allowed two carries for 20 yards or more in that span. Indiana ranks third nationally in tackles for loss and, after a slow start in the non-conference, has accumulated 13 sacks in three conference games. Remember they got to Julian Sayin five times last season.
Given the Hoosiers were +37 combined in turnover margin over the last two seasons, it is no surprise to see some regression in that department, but they are only +3 in six games. Indiana has forced nine fumbles this season and has yet to recover one. QB Josh Hoover was much maligned for turnover issues at TCU but has yet to give one away (17 TD – 0 INT) this season.
The winner of this one is certainly in the driver’s seat to return to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game, and this could come down to the last possession. Ohio State is given the benefit of the doubt by the national media “experts”, but perhaps it is time for Indiana to be given that same benefit. However, that benefit has to be earned, and Cignetti and his Hoosiers wouldn’t have it any other way.
Michigan State +7.5 vs. Northwestern
Pat Fitzgerald and David Braun have said all the right things this week regarding the history of the two coaches at Northwestern. Fitzgerald was an All-American LB as a player and coached the Wildcats for 17 seasons before being fired in 2023 due to hazing allegations. He then sued his alma mater for $130 million for wrongful termination. Fitzgerald hired David Braun as defensive coordinator just six months before the firing. Braun became the interim coach and is now Northwestern’s full-time head coach and has the Wildcats ranked inside the top 25 largely due to the play of QB Aidan Chiles, who lost his starting job last season at…you guessed it, Michigan State.
Northwestern is just a touchdown away from being unbeaten as they went the distance with defending National Champions Indiana in a six-point loss. Meanwhile, Michigan State is rebuilding, and the Spartans are off to a 2-4 start and 0-3 in Big Ten play.
This is the first time Northwestern has been a road favorite in Braun’s fourth season as head coach. They are clearly the better team here, but Michigan State showed life last week, rallying from a 23-7 deficit to force OT against Illinois before falling 38-37 after failing to convert on the two-point conversion.
The coaches will say the right things, but this one is personal for both sides.
As we saw last week with Pittsburgh, teams can often play sluggishly after their first ranking, and that could be the case for Northwestern here.
Tennessee +8 vs. Alabama
Alabama comes in a bit wounded off its close loss at home to Georgia last Saturday. Leading receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams and center Racin Delgatty will both miss this one for the Crimson Tide.
Tennessee failed to cover on the road last week against the SEC’s potentially worst team, Arkansas, but did hang on for a 24-17 victory.
Vols QB George MacIntyre was up and down in his first start last week, throwing two INTs and will need to be better against an Alabama team that is third in takeaways. However, Tennessee has largely been carried by its defense, and the Vols have 12 sacks in three SEC games (Alabama has allowed 8 sacks over the last two games). Jim Knowles has upgraded this underrated group as its new defensive coordinator.
Unlike in recent years, Tennessee has been more run-heavy and has substantially slowed its offensive pace with the youth at QB and the production at RB with DeSean Bishop (678 yards, 6.3 ypc, 8 TD) and Daune Morris (332 yards, 6.1 ypc, 2 TD). Alabama is just 65th in Rushing EPA and just allowed Georgia to run for 5.3 per clip last week.
The traditional “Third Saturday in October” matchup is a big game for CFP positioning, and Tennessee looks to be the under-the-radar team in the SEC right now, and they get Alabama in a tough spot here.
BYU TT Under 17.5 vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame brings its No. 1 defense to Provo for a top-10 showdown with BYU.
The Fighting Irish lead the nation in Net Success Rate, Net EPA/Play, Opponent-Adjusted Net EPA/Play, Fewest Penalties, and Total Defense, and rank second in Turnover Margin.
BYU has been winning with its defense and toughness, but they are going to be challenged offensively here by Notre Dame’s elite defense and with RB LJ Martin missing for the second consecutive week.
Plus, this should be a slower-paced game with Notre Dame ranking No. 120 in tempo and BYU ranking No. 131.
Wisconsin +3 -115 at UCLA
It’s mid-October, and the talk of the football universe at least in Los Angeles is not the preseason Super Bowl favorite Rams. It’s certainly not the 0-5 Chargers. It’s not even USC. It is Bob Chesney at the 5-0 UCLA Bruins, who are on the precipice of the top 10 and ranked No. 12. UCLA just upset Oregon in Autzen last week and looks down at its schedule and sees a highly manageable slate with neither Ohio State nor Indiana on it. The College Football Playoff is actually within sight out in Westwood.
Chesney and the program have been getting all kinds of national media attention and now have eyes on them. Meanwhile, 4-1 Wisconsin has also been a nice surprise in the Big Ten. Luke Fickell was the coach most on the hot seat in the conference, having come off 5-7 and 4-8 seasons over the last two years.
Fickell’s Badgers averaged less than 13 ppg last season, and while Wisconsin is not an offensive juggernaut this season, the Badgers are averaging 31.6 ppg, and Old Dominion transfer Colton Joseph has been able to make plays at QB, which this group did not have last season.
On the UCLA side, Nico Iamaleava suffered a knee injury last week and is likely done for the season. Backup QB and Cal Poly transfer Ty Dieffenbach came on in relief last week and will get the start. Dieffenbach was just 2-7 as a starter at Cal Poly last season with just 9 TD passes vs. 9 INTs.
When Dieffenbach came into the game, Oregon could stack the box, and UCLA could only run for 74 yards on 24 carries. The Bruins likely face tough sledding offensively against a Badgers defense ranked top 15 in total defense. Plus, UCLA gained 6 turnovers last week at Oregon, and they lead the nation in takeaways per game at 3.8. However, these numbers are unsustainable, and Wisconsin should be able to slow this game down and win it in the trenches.
BEST OF THE REST
Virginia Tech -10 vs. Georgia Tech
Air Force PK vs. UNLV
Oklahoma -6.5 vs. Kentucky
Colorado +15.5 vs. Utah
Oregon TT Under 30.5 (-120) vs. Nebraska
For more college football Week 7 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 7 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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