College Football Picks:

The Week 10 college football slate lacks marquee matchups, but every game takes on more importance if you have a bet on it, right? I think there are some games that may be a little bit undervalued because of the conference or maybe recent form for the two teams, but several games do intrigue me.

Some of them also only intrigue me because I like the side or total. We’ve got a little bit of all of that coming here.

 

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Here are my Week 10 College Football Picks:

Stanford Cardinal at North Carolina State Wolfpack (-10, 46.5)

Noon ET (ACC Network)

Stanford is back east once again, as they head to Raleigh to take on NC State. In two games without extra rest in the Eastern Time Zone, Stanford has been pummeled by Clemson and Notre Dame. In no way, shape, or form do I think NC State is on the level of those teams, but this is an early kick and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cardinal start slow.

After all, this is a team that averaged fewer than four yards per play in October while cycling back and forth between Ashton Daniels, Elijah Brown, and Justin Lamson at QB. Lamson is the only one with a positive TD/INT ratio. Daniels should get the nod here after playing the 27-24 loss to Wake Forest in which his longest pass play was 17 yards.

The NC State offense is playing at a high level right now. They averaged 6.4 yards per play in three October games and I do believe that they’re a better team than the 4-4 record indicates. They’ve been very inconsistent, but this is a team that has a positive yards per play differential in ACC play despite a 1-3 record.

Stanford is being outgained by nearly two yards per play in ACC games so far. NC State is off of a bye with a quality head coach in Dave Doeren. This is a big game for bowl eligibility, as they host Duke next week and then play two road games to end the regular season. I think his team will be ready to go.

Pick: NC State -10

Duke Blue Devils at Miami Hurricanes (-20.5, 54.5)

Noon ET (ABC)

The Blue Devils were unable to win a game where they had a +6 turnover margin last week, so I can understand the hesitance in backing them here against Miami. But the Hurricanes’ last three games against teams with a pulse have finished with wins by 7, 1, and 4 points. After hammering their way through the non-conference schedule, they’ve been very pedestrian in ACC play.

They handled their affairs against a hapless Florida State team last week, but we all know what state the Seminoles are in. Obviously this game means a little bit to Duke head coach Manny Diaz and he certainly has an idea of most of the personnel that the Hurricanes bring to the table, not to mention the coaches.

The Blue Devils maybe haven’t played the most grueling schedule, but they are in the top 10 in yards per play allowed. Good defenses are hard to blow out because they often limit explosive plays. Duke’s offense leaves a lot to be desired, so I totally get that, but the defense has 19 takeaways and sometimes being able to play keep away also helps to keep games tight.

All in all, I feel like Duke keeps this one close.

Pick: Duke +20.5

USC Trojans (-2.5, 55.5) at Washington Huskies

7:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)

As far as I’m concerned, the wrong team is favored in Seattle here. Washington’s defense is light years better than USC’s and the offenses are pretty comparable on the whole. The Huskies actually have a top-five defense by yards per play allowed. And it hasn’t just been due to the schedule, as they’ve allowed 4.6 YPP in conference after allowing 4.3 in the non-conference. USC is 80th in YPP and they’ve allowed 5.8 YPP in Big Ten games.

The Huskies have been hurt by a lack of takeaways, as they only have seven on the season. They’ve also had a lot of early-down success on offense, but rank 99th in third-down conversion rate. Despite USC’s awful defensive numbers in a lot of areas, the Trojans are 15th in third-down conversion rate against. I think both numbers will regress to the mean as we go forward and that should help Washington here.

Washington’s other issue has been scoring TDs in the red zone. They are 111th in TD% inside the 20. That is another area I would expect the USC defense to regress, as they are just outside the top 40 in TD% against. It is hard to give up yardage to the degree that USC has, but be so strong in those two areas. And they’re still only a 4-4 team.

I think this is a good matchup for a Huskies team that I believe is better than their record shows and they’ve played extremely well at home thus far this season.

Pick: Washington +2.5

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