College Football Picks:

The first College Football Playoff rankings are out and provide some good sports talk radio fodder, but they have very little betting impact. We should be conditioned by now to expect the unexpected in college football, not to mention, a lot of those teams either play each other or are projected to lose upcoming games. All we have is what is right in front of us. In this case, that means Week 11.

There are some games with huge CFP implications this week and a slew of other games that matter to varying degrees for each team. After sorting through the games and the weather forecasts, a few games stood out more than others.

 

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Here are my Week 11 College Football Picks:

Colorado Buffaloes (-3.5, 63) at Texas Tech Red Raiders

4 p.m. ET

Admittedly, I was torn between the Over and Colorado here, but I’ve ultimately decided to back the Buffaloes. The move to the Big 12 has done wonders for Colorado, as the level of competition, specifically in the trenches, has dropped off. As a result, the Buffs have found a lot more success on both sides of the ball.

But, this may also just be a thing where a second-year head coach is finding his stride with his top-five pick at QB. The Buffaloes are +0.47 yards per play in conference action. Shedeur Sanders is having another great year and hasn’t had to run for his life on two out of every three plays. He was sacked 52 times last season in 430 pass attempts. He’s been sacked 25 times in 300 pass attempts this season, so the OL has improved and so has Shedeur’s ability to get the ball out on time.

The reason why I like Colorado more than the Over here is because the Buffs have actually played decent defense. They’ve allowed 5.4 YPP against Big 12 competition and were actually slightly better than that in October. They’re coming off of a bye here, so I presume they’ll be ready to go.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech’s defense is allowing over a yard per play more at 6.53. They only have 11 sacks in nine games. Not only that, but they are only mustering 5.31 YPP in league play. They had under five yards per play in the win over Iowa State and their overall numbers are inflated by having nearly seven yards per play in non-conference action. 

I’m getting the better team with the better offense and defense off of a bye with renewed College Football Playoff possibilities? I’ll lay a short number with that equation.

Pick: Colorado -3.5

South Carolina Gamecocks (-3.5, 45.5) at Vanderbilt Commodores

4:15 p.m. ET

Gamecock Nation should be well-represented in Nashville, as South Carolina looks to do what most haven’t done – win and cover as a favorite against Vanderbilt. The sportsbooks and bettors are well aware of Vandy’s prowess as a pup, but here we are with the Cocks favored and not a ton of movement on this line.

I do think we could see this one tick down to 3 as the week goes along, so it might be worth waiting, but I post this on Wednesday and this is the line I have to work with. The only uncompetitive loss for SC was the game against Ole Miss, but they were right there to beat LSU and Alabama, so we could be talking about a ranked SC team with a 7-1 record.

While Vandy has stepped up in the underdog role, they had 288 yards of offense (5.2 YPP) against Kentucky, 269 yards (4.3 YPP) against Texas, and 227 yards (3.7 YPP) against Auburn. Yes, Clark Lea’s defense deserves a lot of credit, but South Carolina is seventh in the nation in yards per play allowed on defense. They are fourth in the nation in sacks with 31. Two teams ahead of them, including North Carolina (32) have played nine games. They are also eighth in yards per carry allowed.

This is an elite defensive front and Vanderbilt has already had issues moving the football. I don’t love SC’s offense at all,  but they’ve averaged about a half-yard more per play in SEC action than Vanderbilt. The Gamecocks deserve to be favored and I think they win and cover. I’m not worried about the spot. It was a great win over Texas A&M, but also a 24-point demolition. It wasn’t like it was a walk-off field goal or something.

Pick: South Carolina -3.5

Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-10, 56) at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

4:30 p.m. ET

We are no longer treated to weeknight Conference USA football. Instead, we get it on the weekends, where the games just blend in with the rest of the schedule. But, this one stands out to me and, to be honest, I’m really surprised that this total hasn’t moved down.

Jacksonville State and Louisiana Tech meet in Ruston, where rain is in the forecast and could have a moderate impact on the game. What I expect to have a bigger impact on the game are the defenses for each team. From a yards per play standpoint, Jacksonville State isn’t impressive, but they’ve allowed nearly a yard fewer per play in conference games after struggling early in the year.

Louisiana Tech is actually a top-15 team on defense in YPP. The level of competition absolutely plays a role, and the Gamecocks represent a step up from the UTEPs and Sam Houston States of the world, but the Bulldogs haven’t allowed more than 33 points in a game this season. Even if they start now, they’re a pretty terrible offense that has managed just 4.9 YPP. As of Wednesday, they were 124th in YPP.

So, as good as the defense is for LA Tech, the offense is just as bad. That should help a Jacksonville State defense that has been better of late and I think the Bulldogs can keep the Gamecocks in check, especially with a run-heavy attack against a defense allowing just 3.2 yards per carry.

Pick: Under 56

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