The college football season is entering the homestretch, but the action is heating up here at VSiN! Make sure you keep up to date on everything for the impending week of action by checking out our Week 12 CFB Betting Hub. It has links to all the articles for the week, from trends and odds reports to best bets from all our VSiN writers.

Kansas Jayhawks at BYU Cougars (-4, 55.5)

Bettors are all over Kansas in this spot against BYU. The Cougars are coming off an emotional, tough win over Utah in the Holy War last week. They have all the pressure in the world to remain undefeated and maintain their spot at the top of the Big 12. Situationally, it makes sense to look to play against BYU, but that is not the only reason I am backing Kansas here.

 

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The Jayhawks are getting better. They are 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in their last three games with a +14.3 cover margin. The most important factor in this surge from Kansas – which can still achieve bowl eligibility by winning out – is the play of quarterback Jalon Daniels.

Daniels is the fifth-highest graded quarterback in the country by PFF since Week 8. He has averaged 9.8 yards per attempt on 85 dropbacks over the last three games. More importantly, he has thrown six touchdowns to just one interception and four turnover-worthy plays. Daniels also looks much healthier, and that has shown in his rushing numbers. In the last three games the Jayhawks’ signal-caller has run for 201 yards on 5.6 yards per carry.

Kansas is playing like the team many expected them to be at the beginning of the season. The upgrade that the betting market has thrust upon it is warranted. At this late portion of the week, it is not wise to grab 2.5 points on a number that was over a field goal. But, I do believe this team is a threat to knock off BYU this weekend. So instead, I will bank on the Jayhawks ending the Cougars’ perfect season.

Best Bet: Kansas ML (+130)

Boise State Broncos (-14, 61.5) at San José State Spartans

Boise State has looked less than stellar in recent weeks. 

The Broncos are just 2-2 ATS in their last two games, and they have found themselves in some dogfights. On the road against Hawaii, Boise State needed two touchdown drives in the fourth quarter to separate itself as a 21.5-point favorite in a game it did not cover. The Broncos failed to cover last week as well, and benefited from an overturned interception in the red zone thrown by Maddux Madsen.

This team is not perfect by any stretch, and now it must go on the road in a muted environment to take on one of the Mountain West’s biggest surprises of the season in San José State.

The Spartans are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games after the market inflated its rating following a 3-0 SU and ATS start to the season, but make no mistake, this team can be a problem for the Broncos.

San José State has done a great job in generating quality possessions this season. It ranks 70th in ECKEL rate (45.4%) and is 31st in the country in points per quality possession (3.99). Boise State is 85th in points allowed per quality possession (3.70). The Broncos are also below average in late-down success rate this season, ranking 80th in that category. The Spartans are steady enough on offense to take advantage of those issues.

SJSU has also quietly played the run well. They rank 50th in EPA per rush on the season. No one is expecting this group to stop Ashton Jeanty, but this is not a group that will go down easily on that front. 

This play also comes down to the number. Bettors can grab a full 14 points with the Spartans this weekend. I expect they can stay inside that number and give the Broncos a sweat on Saturday.

Best Bet: San José State (+14)

Nebraska Cornhuskers at USC Trojans (-9, 51)

There are a lot of moving pieces for this contest that might make handicapping it a fool’s errand. But, I’m still willing to dive into this one.

The biggest factor at play in this contest is the change at quarterback for USC. UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava will make his first start of the season in place of Miller Moss. As someone who covers the Rebels part-time and saw Maiava up close many times last season, I doubt this is an upgrade for the Trojans.

Maiava’s biggest weakness is his penchant for putting the ball in danger. Last season, Maiava committed a turnover-worthy play on 5.7% of his pass attempts. That placed him at 151st of 164 qualified quarterbacks last season. I do not expect that his bad habits have disappeared.

Nebraska’s defense is not a sieve by any stretch. Its front seven is very strong and ranks 20th in opponent EPA per rush on the season. The secondary does have some shortcomings – it ranks 89th in success rate per dropback – but I believe the unit’s floor is raised by facing Maiava who will likely put the ball in danger.

The other massive change for this game is the Cornhusker’s new offensive coordinator: Dana Holgorsen. It gives Nebraska a slight edge over USC in terms of preparation. With a new play-caller this offense will not have the same tendencies as the one on film all season. Dylan Raiola has his issues, but he does take care of the football, which is a positive as well.

This number is starting to slowly creep toward the road team here, and I agree with the move. The gap between these two programs is not as wide as this line would indicate.

Best Bet: Nebraska (+9)

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