We might only have two weeks left in the regular season, but the action is heating up here at VSiN! Make sure you keep up to date on everything for the impending week of action by checking out our Week 13 CFB Betting Hub. It has links to all the articles for the week, from trends and odds reports to best bets from all our VSiN writers.

UNLV Rebels (-8, 62) at San José State Spartans

San José State let me down last week in what was one of the worst beats of the season. But, I promise that this is not why I’m going against them this week with UNLV.

 

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The Rebels have plenty to play for. Should UNLV finish with one loss in conference play and Colorado State slip up in the final two weeks, it would be the Rebels that make the trip to Boise to face Boise State in the Mountain West championship game. One also has to wonder about the mental state of San José State after a shocking collapse last week that led to the team failing to cover as 14.5-point underdogs in a game it had a chance to win outright.

On the field, this matchup should work in UNLV’s favor. It seems like it will be a rainy and somewhat windy day at CEFCU Stadium. That works perfectly for the Rebels’ offense. UNLV is one of the best rushing attacks in the country. It ranks 18th in yards per rush (5.3) and ninth in rush yards per game (220.8). The Rebels should have no problems in conditions such as the ones they will face Friday night.

That rushing attack also sets up an efficient passing attack with Hajj-Malik Williams. UNLV is 44th in the country in EPA per dropback, and its opponent tonight is 125th in the country on defense in the same category. Not only do the Rebels have Ricky White – one of the best receivers in the country – but Jacob DeJesus returned from injury last week against San Diego State, giving Williams his second target back.

In all, the situation works in UNLV’s favor, and there are plenty of on-field matchups that it can exploit. I expect the Rebels to win and cover tonight in San José.

Best Bet: UNLV (-7.5)

Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack (-2, 43.5)

There seems to be some conflicting opinions on this contest in the market. Air Force was sitting at -3 before some strong support in the middle of the week pushed the line up to -3.5 consensus. Those hooks are now gone and the field goal is the number as of Friday. Count me among those bettors who believe the Falcons are live in Reno on Saturday night.

Air Force came into the season with almost no experience. Only four players were back that started for the Falcons last year. It led to an awful 1-8 SU and ATS start to the season. But, over the last few weeks Air Force has shown signs of improvement.

That lone cover for the Falcons over the first nine games actually came three weeks ago against Army. Air Force managed to stay inside the number in a 20-3 loss. One week later, the Falcons burst onto the scene with a 36-28 win over Fresno State. Following that, they shutout Oregon State for a second straight win and third consecutive cover.

In the two victories the Falcons have shown real improvement. They averaged 307.5 yards rushing on 4.3 yards per carry. The team converted 18-of-31 third downs (58.1%) across the two contests. It would seem that this team – after nearly a full season – is starting to improve. That is not a good sign for Nevada.

The Wolf Pack are a below-average run defense. In fact, by some metrics they are one of the worst in the country. Nevada has allowed 4.7 yards per carry on the season and 166.7 rush yards per game. By EPA standards they are 103rd against the run and 116th in defensive success rate against the run. Yes, Nevada has had a bye week to get ready for the option, but that will not fix such a glaring weakness.

Best Bet: Air Force (+3)

USC Trojans (-4.5, 51) at UCLA Bruins

In this column last week I Nebraska, and much of the handicap was a fade of USC quarterback Jayden Maiava. Much of what I discussed in the piece came to light against the Cornhuskers.

Maiava threw a pick-six early in the contest; a mistake which ultimately made the difference for bettors who got on Nebraska early in the week. In all, Maiava committed three turnover-worthy plays in the win. He also showed his usual lack of ball security when running the ball and was also strip-sacked by Ty Robinson.

As was the case last week, I’ll take my chances fading the Trojans with Maiava as the starting quarterback.

UCLA has obviously been undervalued by the betting market. The Bruins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. They also have a defense that is one of the better units in the country. UCLA ranks 27th in opponent EPA per rush and 60th in EPA per dropback. Overall, they are 41st in the country in opponent EPA per play.

The Bruins are coming off a 31-19 loss to Washington, but the result was better than the final score indicates. UCLA outgained Washing and converted 10-of-18 third down attempts. But, two lost fumbles from Ethan Garbers inside the Washington 30-yard line killed promising opportunities.

I trust that the Bruins can bounce back in a rivalry spot, take advantage of the likely mistakes committed by Maiava and not only stay inside this number, but have an opportunity to win the game outright.

Best Bet: UCLA (+4.5)

Army Black Knights at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-16, 45.5)

Professional handicapper Dan Saley joined us on VSiN PrimeTime earlier this week, and he told us that he had this number closer to -19 for Notre Dame. That is one handicapper’s opinion, but Saley was dead-on when he had a similar analysis about the Irish’s win over Navy a few weeks ago. In the biggest spots this season the market has faded Notre Dame, and it has been dead wrong. 

Against the Boilermakers – following the disastrous loss to Northern Illinois – the line went from Notre Dame -16 on the lookahead at DraftKings to -11 when it opened and -7 when it closed. The Irish won 66-7. Against Navy, DraftKings had the lookahead line at -17 and it eventually closed -13.5 on gameday. Notre Dame won 51-14 and covered the lookahead line.

Army has not seen anything like it will see when it hits the field on Saturday in the Bronx. The Black Knights’ best win and opponent is either North Texas or East Carolina. Notre Dame has a different caliber of athlete at every position. The lines of scrimmage will be dominated by the Irish this weekend, and so too will the scoreboard. It also helps that this is the second time Notre Dame has faced the option this season.

Best Bet: Notre Dame (-14)

Best Bet Recap

UNLV (-7.5)

Air Force (+3)

UCLA (+4.5)

Notre Dame (-14)

Last Week’s Results: 2-1 (+1.30u)

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