College Football Picks:

The dynamics of late-season college football are tricky to pin down. Many players are realizing that this week and next week represent the final games that they will play in their careers. Other players are realizing their opportunities with the NIL and transfer portal. Other players are realizing the opportunities for the nearer future in terms of conference title games and even the College Football Playoff.

Maybe those things don’t factor in as much as I think they do. I remember being in my early 20s, but I was never a college football player. And it won’t be the same for each and every guy. I’ve wrestled with whether or not it’s better to try and guess how a team is collectively feeling or to just use the black and white of stats and metrics. Some combination of both is likely best, but it is quite the puzzle for something like Week 13 of a college football season.

 

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Here are my Week 13 College Football Picks:

UConn Huskies at Syracuse Orange (-10.5, 54)

Noon, ET

The last time UConn played an ACC team, Jim Mora Jr. had a lot to say about the officiating. The Huskies lost to Wake Forest and he had a few NSFW words about the referees who were involved in the outcome, as UConn lost by three at home.

Now they’re on the road to take on former Big East foe Syracuse and it sure will be interesting to see how the game gets called. But, I think it’s a good rallying cry for Mora’s team, as they’re 0-2 against ACC teams this season with close losses to Duke and Wake Forest. They’re getting a double-digit head start here against a Syracuse defense that has been awful on defense, allowing over six yards per play and over 28 points per contest.

Obviously Syracuse has played a tougher schedule than UConn, with the Orange 57th per Jeff Sagarin and the Huskies 133rd. It could very well be a spot where UConn’s lack of quality competition comes to the forefront. 

Nick Evers is banged up, so I am admittedly hoping that Joe Fagnano gets the start. The message boards and social media are suggesting that Evers is getting starts because of NIL considerations, but since he’s banged up, it might be a good excuse for Mora to use the better player in hopes of a win that could have some measure of recruiting implications. Fagnano has completed 2.4% more of his passes with a 13/3 TD/INT ratio compared to Evers, who has a 5/5 ratio.

But, the Huskies also have three backs averaging 5.1 yards per carry or higher. The Syracuse defense is 111th in yards per carry allowed on the season.

Pick: UConn +10.5

Wisconsin Badgers at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-2.5, 42.5)

3:30 p.m. ET

We have a battle of Big Ten teams that recently fired their offensive coordinators. Nebraska canned Marcus Satterfield prior to last week’s 28-20 loss to USC. Wisconsin just gave a pink slip to Phil Longo to start this week. So, we have a couple of programs in flux here.

But, I don’t think many people expected Longo and his modified Air Raid offense to play well in Madison. The Badgers are going with a collaborative approach this week, but former Ohio State QB Kenny Guiton, who served as Arkansas’s interim OC last season for a few games, will now coach WR and QB.

I’d assume he’ll have a lot to do with the offense and he helped lead an upset win over Florida last year in the Swamp with the Razorbacks. But, that’s not why I like Wisconsin here. Nebraska has been a constant underperformer since the Colorado win. Dylan Raiola is regressing in a big way, as he has a 2/7 TD/INT ratio since the start of October. He’s been under 200 passing yards in each of the last three games. He’s also been sacked 19 times in his last seven games.

Wisconsin has gotten pretty good offensive line play. They’ve only allowed 11 sacks this season and have done a solid job of running the football. They have 4.5 yards per carry and leading rusher Tawee Walker has 4.8 yards per pop.

Neither team is where they had hoped to be, but I think the OC change benefits Wisconsin here.

Pick: Wisconsin +2.5

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