College Football Picks:

Week 7 features some premier games with College Football Playoff implications, so it should be an awesome weekend on the gridiron. Obviously all eyes will be on Ohio State vs. Oregon, but I often find my value further down the board. Betting into the huge games with high handles doesn’t yield a whole lot of line value more often than not and I’d rather look for small-conference games where the oddsmakers maybe haven’t been paying the closest attention.

With more games than last week, but still a whole lot of road favorites, there are several games that look pretty enticing from a betting standpoint.

 

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Here are my Week 7 College Football Picks:

Clemson Tigers (-20, 60.5) at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Saturday, Noon ET (ESPN)

Clemson has scored 90 points in the first quarter of the last four games, holding leads of 35-0,  28-0, 10-0, and 17-0. Cade Klubnik has worked his way back into the Heisman Trophy discussion with a 14/1 TD/INT ratio in the wins over App State, NC State, Stanford, and Florida State. More importantly, Clemson is very much in the College Football Playoff discussion now.

Whatever change that took place after the Georgia game has worked out. Not only is Clemson thriving on offense, but the defense has allowed just 5.15 yards per play over the last four games. In those games, they’ve also had 7.78 yards per play. If Clemson has a yards per play differential over two yards in this game, they should go right on ahead and cover.

It seems doable, as Wake Forest only holds wins over NC A&T and NC State. They were blown out by Ole Miss, who is closer to Clemson than Virginia and Louisiana, teams that the Demon Deacons lost to at home already. The Deacs are 119th in the nation in defensive yards per play and I expect the Tigers to take full advantage.

Clemson is on a mission and Wake Forest is the next unfortunate opponent in their path.

Pick: Clemson -20

Cal Golden Bears at Pitt Panthers (-3, 58.5)

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Hopefully Cal players are getting travel miles for all of their treks this season. The Golden Bears went to Jordan-Hare and won at Auburn. Two weeks later, they went to Tallahassee and lost to Florida State. Their third trip east is to Pittsburgh, where they’ll visit Heinz Field and take on the Panthers.

It had to be a rough Sunday and Monday for Cal after letting the game against Miami slip from their collective grasp, as the Hurricanes erased a 25-point deficit and won with a little bit of controversy following an uncalled targeting foul. The Golden Bears are now 0-2 in ACC play. They could very well be 2-0, but now they’re on the road against a Pitt team that I really like this season.

Head coach Pat Narduzzi remembered that scoring points is important and he hired 31-year-old Kade Bell to be the OC. Under Bell’s watch, QB Eli Holstein has a 65.7% completion rate with a strong 15/3 TD/INT ratio. He’s also the team’s second-leading rusher with 5.5 yards per carry. Holstein has had three TD passes in every game this season and just threw for a season-high 381 yards against North Carolina. He also has a pass play of 42+ yards in every game.

Cal running back Jadyn Ott, thought to be one of the top RB prospects in the nation, has only mustered 2.9 yards per carry, as he’s been overshadowed by Jaivian Thomas. But, they’ll face a stiff test here from a Pitt defense that ranks 29th in yards per play at 4.9 heading into this week.

The Cal defense was aided by a really weak schedule early. Miami moved the ball with great effectiveness and I expect Pitt to do the same. Shop for a -3, even at extra juice if you can find one over a -3.5.

Pick: Pitt -3

Florida Gators at Tennessee Volunteers (-15.5, 55.5)

Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Florida is sure to get the best shot that Tennessee has, as the Volunteers come in off of a loss to Arkansas. But, what does that best shot look like? After obliterating Chattanooga, NC State, and Kent State to start the season, the Vols have scored 39 points in two games. They only ran for 2.9 yards per carry against Oklahoma, though they were running into a flooded box all second half after jumping out to a 19-3 lead after the first 30.

That wasn’t an excuse last week, as the Vols had just 5.1 yards per play against Arkansas. Facing real teams with real defenses, Nico Iamaleava had passed for just 352 yards the last two games with one TD pass. The Arkansas performance even came off of a bye for Josh Heupel’s team.

I know that the Gators are far from the Gators of old, but Billy Napier has gone from the outhouse to, well, an actual dwelling, as his seat is a tad cooler these days following nice wins over Mississippi State and UCF.

Maybe Iamaleava and the Vols can flip the switch, but Florida still has a lot of talent on defense and Rocky Top hasn’t handled that well the last two games.

Pick: Florida +15.5

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