The end of the season has not been a good one for college football. The Lane Kiffin saga was another black mark on the sport, and then we had some ridiculous tiebreaker scenarios, including one that put Duke in the ACC Title Game, only to win and then not make it into the College Football Playoff anyway. Alabama cheapened one of their best wins of the season and had negative rushing yards against Georgia, but still somehow made the playoff, while Notre Dame did not. And the Fighting Irish responded by saying “no thanks” to a bowl game.
We had some blowouts with the first-round matchups last season and we run that risk again, especially with a second Group of Five team in the field. Also, we’ve already seen the matchup between one G5 team and their first-round opponent in the regular season and it was a 45-10 beatdown.
Alas, we have odds and things to talk about with an Opening Line Report for the College Football Playoff. I’ll do one for the bowl games later in the week, as those matchups are still being finalized and the markets are still taking shape.
Check out the DraftKings College Football Betting Splits and Circa College Football Betting Splits to follow line moves all week long!
College Football Playoff Odds Report
Lines as of Sunday, December 7 at 5:00 p.m. PT
Alabama (-1.5, 40.5) at Oklahoma
Friday, Dec. 19 at 8 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)
Remember, all four first-round playoff games are on home campus sites, so factor in whatever your home-field calculation is for these games. Based on my home-field advantage formula, it’s three points for Oklahoma. Even with HFA in the equation, and an awful showing against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, the Crimson Tide are road favorites heading to Norman.
The Sooners won the head-to-head regular season meeting in Tuscaloosa by a 23-21 count, as the Tide had a massive yardage edge, but had the game’s only three turnovers, including an 87-yard pick-six that helped Oklahoma out to a 10-0 lead. Alabama did lead 21-20 going into the fourth quarter, but got stymied by this elite Sooner defense. As you can see, the total here is just 40.5, as the Oklahoma offense has been underwhelming at best ever since John Mateer got hurt and came back from his injury for the rivalry game against Texas.
So far, we have minimal line movement on this game, as everybody is just getting their ducks in a row for these games.
Miami at Texas A&M (-4, 51)
Saturday, Dec. 20 at Noon ET (ABC/ESPN)
It turns out that the ACC did in fact get represented in the College Football Playoff, but not by the conference champion or the runner-up. We can all universally agree that the Hurricanes were the best team in the conference, but Mario Cristobal did what Mario Cristobal does and picked up two regular season losses. An asinine tiebreaker setup put Duke in the title game over more deserving parties, though the Blue Devils did beat Virginia, so there’s that.
Anyway, the Hurricanes head to College Station for this one against a Texas A&M team that played themselves out of the SEC Championship Game by losing to Texas to finish the regular season. Of course, Ohio State did that last season losing to rival Michigan and seemed to have more energy not having to play in the conference title game.
This line was split between 3.5 and 4 across the market as of Sunday evening, with the total anywhere from 51 to 52 and most shops sitting in the middle. To me, this is the hardest of the four games to line and get a handle on because these are two excellent defenses and two QBs with upside, but I would also give the Aggies a big coaching edge.
Tulane at Ole Miss (-16, 57)
Saturday, Dec. 20 at 3:30 p.m. ET (TNT/HBO Max)
In light of these last two December 20 games, we’re likely to see some changes to how the College Football Playoff selection is done. Tulane and Ole Miss played already this season and the Rebels won 45-10. Ole Miss passed for 307 and ran for 241, while Tulane passed for 104 and ran for 178, with eight carries for 51 yards from QB Jake Retzlaff.
It is a little bit tough to gauge where Ole Miss stands right now with Lane Kiffin’s soap opera exit from Oxford, but the Grove will be fired up for the CFP appearance and the players seemed to unanimously rally around DC turned head coach Pete Golding.
The line for the first game at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium was Ole Miss -12, so obviously we’ve seen an adjustment and a pretty decent one at that for this game. At the time, Tulane had beaten Northwestern and Duke to begin the season 3-0. Ole Miss was also 3-0, but had close calls against Kentucky and Arkansas. With the market anywhere from 16 to 16.5 and the total 56.5 to 57, I’ll be curious to see what kind of movement we get given the head-to-head data point.
James Madison vs. Oregon (-20.5, 50.5)
Saturday, Dec. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT/HBO Max)
The Dukes and the Ducks in Eugene, as James Madison snuck into the playoff on the strength of Duke’s win over Virginia in the ACC Championship Game. This is the game that will probably alter the qualification rules for the College Football Playoff, especially if James Madison gets run off the field. It is entirely possible with where this line is. Personally, I’d have Notre Dame favored on a neutral over eight of the other 11 playoff teams (Ohio State, Indiana, Texas Tech), but it’s a big spot for JMU and departing head coach Bob Chesney.
Dan Lanning’s Ducks were a one-and-done in the playoff last year, as they earned a bye by winning the Big Ten and then got pummeled by Ohio State. Even though they’re a big favorite, they should be pretty focused to erase the debacle that was last year’s appearance.
Unlike other CFP games, this one basically had an across-the-board consensus of 20.5 and 50.5, with Circa and South Point here in town showing 51 and DraftKings showing 51.5 at time of writing. It is a big number and both teams have impressive stats, but as we weigh James Madison’s schedule against Oregon’s, that’s how movement may occur in this game.
Keep an eye out for more line movements by tracking our VSiN College Football Betting Splits.
