Early College Football Playoff Predictions
The regular season is behind us, conference champions have been crowned, and it is now time to determine a national champion in college football. There was certainly drama on “Selection Sunday,” as Notre Dame was left standing outside the CFP, prompting the Irish to decline a bowl bid altogether. Now, Irish fans would argue they’re a top-five team in virtually every power rating in the industry, had a slightly better strength of schedule and strength of record than Miami, who got in; however, Miami defeated the Irish in Week 1, and that head-to-head ultimately won the day. The committee also consistently didn’t punish teams who lost in their conference championship games, really, which left Alabama in the field despite picking up their third loss. The field is set, feelings are hurt, and there are bets to be cashed, so let’s get to the T Shoe Index’s projections for the first round of the CFP.
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T-Score Index, a full explanation can be found here.
December 19
Oklahoma Sooners vs Alabama Crimson Tide (-1.5), O/U 40.5
One of Alabama’s three losses this year was to this Oklahoma team, so as fate would have it, they’ll get a shot at redemption on the road in Norman in the first round. TSI projects Alabama as a half-point favorite here, with a total of 43. The first time these teams met, OU won 23-21, so I feel pretty confident in the TSI projections here. I’m not going to have an official play at this time. I’d lean Over, but the market seems to be dropping, so I’ll wait and see where the bottom of the market ends up being and look at the Over then.
December 20
Texas A&M Aggies (-4) vs Miami Hurricanes, O/U 51.5
Miami fans probably watched the selection show while holding their breath for a playoff berth, and it came via the 10th seed, sending them to College Station to take on the Aggies on the road in round 1. TSI projects Texas A&M -1 (which means Miami is actually rated higher, but A&M has home field advantage) with a total of 53.5. At this number, I definitely think there’s value on the Hurricanes. While Texas A&M was ranked higher in the human polls most of the year, the power ratings had Miami ahead most of the season. The question to me is the quarterback play for both teams, as Marcel Reed and Carson Beck have been prone to backbreaking interceptions, so whichever team can win the turnover battle likely comes out ahead (as is often the case, I know).
College Football Playoff Pick: Miami +4
Ole Miss Rebels (-16.5) vs Tulane Green Wave, O/U 56.5
Look kids! Big Ben. Parliament. (That’s a European Vacation reference for those under 35.) We’ve already seen these teams face off in Oxford this season, with the Rebels laying waste to Tulane by a score of 45-10. Although, as we know, Lane Kiffin is off to Baton Rouge and Pete Golding has taken over as head coach for Ole Miss. TSI projects Ole Miss -13 with a total of 56.5, which seems surprising on the surface, but the way these teams trended down the stretch helps explain the “low” projection. We’ve seen Ole Miss money come in already, moving the line from 15.5 to 16.5, so for now I’m going to stand pat but could be persuaded to take Tulane at 17.
Oregon Ducks (-20.5) vs James Madison Dukes, O/U 50.5
I’m not sure how many people predicted we’d ever get multiple non-power teams in the playoff, but here we are. Although the combined 37 points of spread difference in those two games tells you how far apart the market sees these teams and their ability (or lack thereof) to truly compete at this level. TSI projects Oregon -15 with a total of 51, so there’s theoretically value on the Dukes here, but again a dead number of 20.5 doesn’t really entice me to pull the trigger on the underdog. We’ll see how high this line climbs as the market pounds the favorite, but for now, it’s another wait-and-see game for me.
For more College Football Playoff predictions and analysis, visit the College Football Playoff Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
